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It was another day of highs and lows yesterday as nailed some really nice bets but also took a couple of losses by near-misses. How does Mitch Keller toss a complete game and only fan five? I’m fine watching Alec Bohm lose his 18-game hit streak and I’m fine with Justin Steele coming up short on strikeouts in his first game back from the MLB injured list. Both had some risk. But man, Keller tossed a fantastic game and usually when distance into a game isn’t a factor, we should hit those K-props. Alas, as the great John Sterling would say, “That’s baseball, Suzyn.” 


MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/7

We’ve got a nice full-slate of games today and, for the most part, we’ll be able to look at Vegas lines and odds throughout the day, if necessary. We do have one early start as the Rangers and Athletics get underway at 3:30pm ET, so we’ll keep an eye out for that, but you all know how I tend to avoid those games. Texas bats, though. I’ll have to think about it. As for the rest, I’ve gone through it all and here’s what looks good to me.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 5-4
  • Season Record: 96-78-1
  • Bankroll: +8.29 units

*Each of my top MLB picks will be accompanied by their respective odds.

Brewers vs. Royals Prediction: Tuesday. May 7

Despite the appearance of some overall decent numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers lineup against righthanded pitching, they’ve really been struggling recently, posting a just a .299 wOBA with a strikeout rate close to 25-percent over the last seven days. Their lefty bats just aren’t doing it right now and Lugo is limiting lefty hitters to a .238 wOBA anyway. He should be able to handle this lineup and stifle them for the first few innings.

On the other side, Colin Rea, in addition to trying to stifle Bobby Witt, is struggling against lefty bats which means we could see some issues against the likes of Vinnie Pasquantino and a surprisingly scorching Michael Massey. He tries to nibble the corners a little too much and tends to walk too many guys, so I expect to see the Royals jump on him early. Not he, but just enough to cash our bets. 

Expert Brewers vs. Royals Picks:

  • Royals First 5 Innings Money Line (-125 on Bet365)
  • Colin Rea over 1.5 walks (+100 on BetMGM)
  • Michael Massey over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110 on BetMGM)

Mariners vs. Twins Prediction: Tuesday, May 7 

We’re jumping right back into this series as we have a strong pitching match-up, at least from the Twins side of things. Bailey Ober’s overall numbers don’t look all that great, but if you zap away the Opening Day eight runs in 1.1 innings and the four runs he coughed up to the White Sox on his last start, you’ll see a 1.48 ERA with 24 strikeouts over 24.1 innings (four starts). Against a Mariners lineup that is still striking out nearly 30-percent of the time against righties this season, he should post a solid effort and keep the Mariners hitters at bay.

We do need the Twins bats to get out in front against Emerson Hancock early. They have a .324 wOBA over the past seven days and picked up with another win yesterday after having lost their 12-game win streak the night before. Hancock has a swinging-strike rate under 10-percent and pitches to a ton of contact in the zone without too much fishing from hitters. In truth, I wanted the Twins money line for the first five innings but there just wasn’t any value n the odds. Instead, we’ll take the small risk with the early run line.

Expert Mariners vs. Twins Picks:

  • Twins First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (+100 on BetMGM)
  • Bailey Ober over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 on BetMGM)

White Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Tuesday, May 7

I wanted to show some love for Zach Eflin who has, historically, pitched better at hm in Tampa over the past year than he has on the road, but I’m going to hold off for now. Instead, I’d rather pick on Mike Soroka who is coming off good (not great) outings against the Twins which is helping us with the odds. He is not a good pitcher. He used to be, but now he walks too many guys and has a miserable 6.1-percent swinging=strike rate. That means he’s pitching to way too much contact and the Rays, while they’ve had their struggles, are playing solid ball lately, posting a .338 wOBA with an impressive 12.2-percent walk rate. Too bad the books are juicing that walk prop to the hulls, huh? Still, we can back the Rays bats and quietly appreciate the free passes they should see.

Expert White Sox vs. Rays Picks:

  • Rays First 5 Innings Team Total over 2.5 runs (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Isaac Paredes over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Best MLB Props for Today, May 7