And just like that, we’re back in business with our stolen base prop picks. If you tailed yesterday’s article, then you walked away with profit. As expected, Randy Arozarena took advantage of both pitcher Sean Burke’s delivery and catcher Drew Romo’s inefficiency with throwing out baserunners. He actually stole two bases, but at +269 for one steal, we didn’t feel it necessary to do any sort of ladder bet. Nor do I recommend it with all the variance you have here. Take the win, put the profit aside and we continue to move forward with our winnings. Now, let’s dive into the research first and then let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

Also, don’t forget to check out my new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

 

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Thursday, May 21:

Favorite Bets: 

Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (+246)

Obviously, there’s some risk built into this one as Cruz is still striking out 30-percent of the time against righties and Pedro Pages should be behind the dish with his 35-percent caught-stealing rate on 26 attempts. But giving up 15 stolen bases gives me some hope, especially against Dustin May who still walks too many guys (check out today’s picks in the Bet Tracker) and he’s allowed four stolen bases on the season. Cruz has 16 steals on the year and an 84.2-percent success rate on the bases, so considering the odds, we’ll take the shot.

Longshot:

Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (+600)

Vegas must really believe in Guardians catcher Patrick Bailey and his 30-percent caught-stealing rate. He’s caught seven runners in 23 attempts which, by MLB standards, is really good, but to me, that’s just 16 times he’s failed. Guardians’ lefty Joey Cantillo has allowed 10 stolen bases this season which is in the top-five (or bottom-five, depending on how you look at it) in the league. His last start, he allowed three stolen bases to the Reds and while that was Austin Hedges behind the dish, we could be looking at plenty of attempts by the Tigers. McGonigle enjoys the lefty-on-lefty crime and has a .364 OBP with a 12.7-percent walk rate against southpaws this season. When we see him get on-base, expect him to run and there’s even a piece of me who likes the longshot over the favorite today.