Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics

Total - 204.5 / TOR -4.5

Toronto

This side of the ball doesn’t exactly do it for me, especially at the top. DeMar DeRozan has struggled over the last two games scoring 26 points combined. But it hasn’t just been the last two games as he hasn’t flashed much upside at his current price tag in some time. Going up against a tough wing defender in Jaylen Brown really turns me off of DeRozan here. It doesn’t shock me to see that he’s shooting just 35.9-percent from the floor in two meetings with Boston this year.

Kyle Lowry is all the way up to 8.4K on DraftKings which is expensive on this slate and especially in this matchup. All that being said, they still don’t have the one seed locked up and are only three games up on none other than the Boston Celtics. Expect Lowry to play extended minutes here all but clinch the top spot in the East. Lowry isn’t the only Raptors point-guard I like here, however, as Fred VanVleet has been flat out ballin’ of late. He’s scored 14 actual points or more in five straight games and could be an intriguing GPP option.

I really just don’t understand why Jonas Valanciunas’ minutes are being capped more now than they were earlier in the season, but whatever. He’s scored 30-plus DK points in four straight games even though he hasn’t topped 22 minutes in any of them. The Celtics can and have been exploited on the interior all season long and that shouldn’t stop here. Valanciunas is a top option for me here while Serge Ibaka is a secondary option. He should be fine at his 5.1K evaluation. I have some interest in Pascal Siakam for $800 bucks cheaper than Ibaka as he will play 20 minutes or so and put up 20 or so fantasy points. He’s a nice salary saver.

 

Boston

Toronto is like Boston in which we’d rather attack their big men than the guards. Al Horford is who I like to immediately in this spot as he’s begun heating up posting 34 and 45 DK points in back-to-back games. The Raptors rank 21st against centers this year and although Horford is splitting his time between PF and C, he’ll be able to exploit Valanciunas’ defense when guarded by him. Marcus Morris isn’t cheap anymore at 6K, but he’s scored 20 actual points in three straight and 17 or more in five of his last six games. He’s been the Celtics primary scorer and there’s no reason to think he stops hoisting shots now. He’s more of a secondary play for me as I prefer spending the $200 more for Horford.

Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown are both fine options -- if Brown suits up as he’s currently questionable -- but I’m not in love with either. I prefer Rozier to Brown because of his upside, but don’t like targeting Kyle Lowry defense who can be really nasty at times. Jayson Tatum has risen from the dead like the Undertaker and is suddenly playing some of his best basketball of the season. OG Anunoby is a good defender, but Tatum’s spewing confidence right now and can be a nice GPP option here.

I can’t see myself paying 5.6K for Greg Monroe, but I understand it in tournaments because of the poor front-court defense Toronto plays. Shane Larkin is one of the better value plays on the slate at 3.5K if he puts up a performance like he did last game scoring nearly 28 DK points. Update: Shane Larkins has been ruled OUT. Please reference the pivots in the DraftKings example for alternatives.

 

Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat

Total - 211 / MIA -8

Brooklyn

When the Miami Heat guards are healthy, I look to avoid attacking them at almost all costs. The problem with that is we only have a three game slate. The two guards I’m most interested in here is Caris LeVert and Joe Harris. Both have been seeing consistent time off of the bench and will be defended more often than not by guys like Dwyane Wade and Wayne Ellington, the worser of the Heat guards on the defensive end. Harris just exploded for a season-high 30 points last week so he’s coming into this one hot and is only 4.3K. LeVert can stuff a box score tremendously which gives him the GPP appeal we’re looking for.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the top play from this Brooklyn team and probably will be just that until the end of the season. His matchup with James Johnson isn’t the easiest, but RHJ’s minutes are so secure and he’s a 20-point double-double threat each time he touches the floor. He has the ceiling and the floor and is an elite tournament play that could go under owned due do the pace down spot the Nets are in.

Jarrett Allen is a wild card in this spot. Hassan Whiteside is back but is playing limited minutes. If Allen can stay out of foul trouble, he’ll be around the rim a lot for a bunch of rebound and block opportunities. He’s seeing a decent amount of minutes right now as he’s played 26 or more minutes in four of his last six contests. DeMarre Carroll is fine too, but I’m not excited about the prospect. Just because it’s such a small slate puts him and basically everyone else in play.

 

Miami

This is a massive pace up spot and Miami probably turns out to be the chalkiest team on the slate. You couldn’t pay me enough money to roster Hassan Whiteside (7.6K) or Kelly Olynyk (7.2) at those price points even though we love attacking Brooklyn centers more than anything in DFS. Unless we hear Whiteside’s minute restriction has been removed, he’s too pricey and Olynyk doesn’t play enough when the Heat front-court is healthy.

James Johnson isn’t cheap, but he’s playing 30 minutes every night and his ceiling is 60 if he contributes across the board like he’s capable of. I really dislike playing Goran Dragic anytime he’s north of 7K, but the matchup is a good one, I love using him in pace up spots and the slate lacks an elite point-guard. He really doesn’t have massive upside but he has a safe floor which is all we can really ask for on a small slate sometimes.

If we’re talking the other Heat guards, I’d rank them Dwyane Wade, Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington in that order. Wade has the highest upside and he doesn’t need 30 minutes to crush value either. Johnson and Ellington really rely on scoring too much for me to trust either of them as both are secondary options here. Justise Winslow might be the sneakiest Heat play of all. His minutes are all over the place but if he sees north of 25, he could win somebody a tournament. He’s hit 5x return in 7-of-10 games at this price tag and could simply be overlooked here.

 

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

Total - 210.5 / GSW -8.5

Golden State

It feels extremely strange to have three of the big four back for the Warriors but with Klay Thompson probable for this game that’s what it seems like. Thompson’s likely going to be somewhat restricted, so he’s a secondary play until we get official word on his status and if he’s active, what type of role he’ll play.

Kevin Durant is the obvious top play of the slate. He matches up with the lowly Kings for one, and is playing without Stephen Curry. Without Curry on the floor this season Durant has amassed a 36.5-percent usage rate and averages 1.49 fantasy points per minute. Durant’s the top play of the slate and it’s not even close.

I like Draymond Green here too, but I always have liked his correlation with Stephen Curry better than with Durant and I am not paying 9.1K. The fantasy points per minute numbers are essentially the same, but in terms of game flow Green and Curry seemingly mesh better. He’s a secondary play because of how crazy his price tag is. Just like Green’s price tag, Cook’s is crazy high as well at 6.6K on DK. He scored a career-high 30 points last game with both Durant and Green playing, but now Klay Thompson is back in the mix and that’s another guy stealing usage from Cook. Cook in theory will see plenty of minutes and get shots up, but will it be enough to justify his price tag? I’m not sure.

Kevin Looney is someone I’m willing to use here, however. He’s been consistently seeing into the 20’s in minutes and has been a fantasy point per minute guy. He’s playing the best basketball of his career and has secured the backup PF and C role from right under Jordan Bell’s nose. Looney is a nice way to save some money on this slate as he should pay off his salary.

 

Sacramento

There are four Kings that peak my interest in Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Skal Labissiere. I’d rank them in that exact order, too. Hield has finally been released into the wild and he’s had a great month of March averaging 15.9 points per game on 46-percent shooting and 41-percent from beyond the three-point line. WCS has put together two solid games of 30-plus DK points in a row and has that potential here as he’s averaged 32.8 DK points per game against Golden State this season.

Bogdanovic played 40 minutes last game and should play well into the 30’s again in this spot. The Kings have nothing to play for except to get their young guys more experience, so he’s a secondary option. Labissiere has the upside to win us a slate, but he has the floor to crush us and not even allow us to cash.