New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Patriots: Run D – 20th Pass D – 17th

Bills: Run D – 16th Pass D – 4th

Passing:

Don’t let the Bills fourth-ranked pass defense fool you. The rank is low because people just stop throwing on them. It’s a matter of pity and respect. They’ve still allowed 13 passing touchdowns and opposing QBs have posted a 95.2 passer rating against them this season. Given some of the injury issues experienced at running back, I expect Tom Brady to do a little more passing than usual, early on. Once the lead is established, we can then look to a rushing attack to chew up the clock.

For the Bills, it’s just more of the same for them. Derek Anderson under center does nothing for anyone, even against a Patriots pass defense that has allowed 17 touchdowns through the air this season. The problem is, everyone has to throw on them because they usually have to play catch-up, so while Anderson may sling the rock, efficiency is not exactly going to be on his side.

Rushing:

We can obviously expect a heavy dose of James White , especially since the Bills rank 24th against running back pass plays. He should see significant work early on, but if they start to pull far enough ahead, Kenjon Barner could end up seeing a heavy workload in the second half as the team uses him to chew up the clock.

LeSean McCoy was cleared via concussion protocol and is expected to play Monday night. Just keep in mind that because of his condition, there is a chance he gets spelled a little more often by Chris Ivory and/or Marcus Murphy . Considering the Patriots are allowing 114 rushing yards per game with a 4.6 YPC, you can consider McCoy a dark horse, but he doesn’t seem the type to rack up 100 yards or punch it into the end zone more than one.

Receiving:

Brady has a ton of weapons at his disposal in Julian Edelman , Josh Gordon , Chris Hogan , Phillip Dorsett and Rob Gronkowski but choosing who is going to see the bulk of the work is close to impossible. However, if you want to latch onto something, how about this: Edelman is their No. 1 and the Bills rank just 20th against opposing No. 1 wideouts. Hogan has the revenge game narrative in-play here and the Bills rank 14th against the opposing No. 3 receiver. And the best of all, Gronk is actually from Amherst, NY, a suburb of Buffalo. All his friends and family show up for the game and here are the tight end’s numbers in games he’s played in Buffalo:

2010- 4 catches for 54 yards & 2 TD
2011- 7 catches for 109 yards & 2 TD
2012- 5 catches for 104 yards & 1 TD
2014- 7 catches for 94 yards
2015- 7 catches for 113 yards & 1 TD
2016- 5 catches for 109 yards & 1TD
2017- 9 catches for 147 yards

For the Bills, there’s not a whole heck of a lot to love. The Patriots rank 27th against the opposing No. 1 receiver so that may put Kelvin Benjamin on the map for some, but is it really going to be worth it? Maybe if you’re looking for that contrarian pick as the rest of the world loads up on receivers from the Patriots and the Thursday night game. Not even sure a Zay Jones dart throw is worth it.

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Raiders: Run D – 14th Pass D – 31st

49ers: Run D – 18th Pass D – 23rd

Passing:

The big question on everyone’s mind will be, “Which Derek Carr will show up?” The guy who played Sunday sure looked good and going up against a struggling 49ers pass defense always seems tasty. The last time he faced the 49ers, he threw for 254 yards and three touchdowns, but that was back in 2014. This year, he’s been a little more on the inconsistent side regarding production, but he’s been extremely efficient with a 72% completion rate. That efficiency has me believing in him this week and the fact that the Niners have allowed 18 touchdowns through the air this season is just gravy.

Had we been looking at this match-up a few weeks ago, I’d like to give C.J. Beathard some love, but the regression we’ve seen over the last two weeks has me concerned. Not that the Raiders pass defense is intimidating, but it’s the mistakes he’s made, the struggles for the offensive line and the lack of production that turns me off. He’s got a couple of solid targets, but overall, I just don’t believe he’s got the upside right now.

Rushing:

The irony of having to talk about each of these running games after what we witnessed in Week 8 should not be lost. Check out my Hot Takes piece and check out the section on Matt Breida . I’m almost tempted to use Raheem Mostert in my lineup because no one is going to trust Kyle Shanahan ever again with this backfield. We’ll have to track the injury report and see if Breida’s condition is worthy of the start on the short week.

For the Raiders, the backfield is easy to break down. Doug Martin is the lead back to take it between the tackles and Jalen Richard is the pass-catching back. The Niners’ run defense is soft in the middle and they rank 18th against running back pass plays. I am likely to avoid both this week simply because I’m not sure how this game goes. Martin is a solid play if the raiders can get a lead and stay competitive. Richard is the play if they’re going to fall behind. If push comes to shove, I’ll lean Martin, but I’m not going to lean too heavily.

Receiving:

Neither pass defense has been particularly strong, so the receivers and tight ends could be quite tasty. Marquise Goodwin is in play, but the Raiders actually contain the opposing WR1 fairly well. They are soft against the WR3 and the TE, so if you’re looking for a dart, maybe Kendrick Bourne is your guy, and then, of course, George Kittle is going to be a popular pick.

On the Raiders side, we’ve got lots in-play here between Jordy Nelson , Seth Roberts aand maybe….maybe…Martavis Bryant . The Niners are struggling in coverage against the opposing WR2 and 3 so Roberts and nelson pique my curiosity and their rank of 22 against the TE has me looking at Jared Cook who saw a return to the heavy target load this past week. Given both these TEs, I’m leaning towards a possible 2-TE set with one of these guys with Gronk.