2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: David Dahl

Here we go again. Another year, another conversation surrounding Colorado Rockies outfielder David Dahl . It is been the same song and dance for a few years now, but I guess the only positive about the 2020 situation for the oft-injured outfielder is that the draft capital required to roster him is less significant than years past. He logged a career-high 100 games last season, slashing .302/.353/.524 with 15 home runs, 67 runs scored, 61 RBI and four stolen bases. It was a successful season for Dahl, all things considered, but the durability, or lack thereof, is a major problem.

Dahl did not play in 2017 and appeared in just 77 and 100 games in 2018 and 2019. To get to that .302 average, he rode a whopping .386 BABIP and his xBA of .267 is far below what is actual batting average was in 2019. Furthermore, his batted ball profile is not the most promising. While his barrel rate was solid, and on the up-and-up, his exit velocity is below league average, and his hard-hit rate is slightly below league average. Last year, his exit velocity clocked in at the 33^rd percentile and his hard-hit rate registered at 48 percent. Fortunately, he gets a good number of games in Coors Field, so that helps pad the numbers when the overall profile is not quite as prolific one as one may think.

Coors Field can mask a lot of problems. Take a look at Dahl’s numbers from last year at home compared to on the road.

For some numerical comparisons that may hit home a bit more, take a look at other players in Major League Baseball who replicated some of his numbers. This way, you can get a stronger idea.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

It is worth noting above that Dahl’s home wRC+ metric would be sandwiched in between Xander Bogaerts and Freddie Freeman . It goes without further saying that Dahl was a beast at home, but on the road, he is an average player. He could offset this a bit by lofting the ball more on the road, but the other factor is staying healthy enough to be able to develop a rhythm at the plate.

Metrics like hard contact rate are similar across the board, but he lofts the ball more at home, and simply produces better stats. It is not anything out of the norm, as most Colorado hitters put up better numbers at home, but it is worth noting, especially with the fact that he may not log a single game in Colorado in 2020. It is positive, however, that his barrel rate increased again, up to a career high 10.3 percent. That is key and will be crucial to being able to weather the road storm, especially if Major League Baseball goes with the Florida/Arizona route.

The last thing with Dahl before wrapping it up here is that it might be time to give up on the hope that he will be a valuable contributor in the stolen base department. He has not run, or run with much success, since coming up to the majors. He is 14-for-21 on stolen base attempts in 240 games at the major league level, and while it’s possible he could reach double-digits, I’m not buying it. Are the injuries taking a toll? Perhaps. His sprint speed, per Baseball Savant, is trending the wrong way.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Dahl could lead off in 2020, which would pad his run totals hitting in front of Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado , but it would diminish his RBI numbers. At this point, the more at-bats the better for Dahl, assuming he can handle them. Of course, an injury is a concern, and always will be. He will not run, and you should not bank on him for steals when drafting him, but if he is to remain at the top of the lineup, his contact skills will need to improve. They are not the greatest, and there is some swing-and-miss in his game, contributing to a strikeout rate that has increased each of the past two seasons. Furthermore, do not expect him to repeat that average either. He is a .280-.285 hitter at best, and that is with Coors Field at his disposal!

Buyer beware of Dahl in 2020. Do not fall for the “toolsy” hype, as one of the five categories (speed) is not exactly what many expected when he entered the majors. Dahl is currently going as the 38^th outfielder off the board, and even at pick 145, it still seems early for Dahl. As you likely gathered from this article, there is more pessimism from my end when it comes to Dahl, and it only grows if Major League Baseball is not playing games in team’s regular home parks. There is enough risk with drafting players due to the Coronavirus and all the unknowns, but do not add unnecessary risk to your team by drafting Dahl, at value, without the guarantee of games at Coors Field. Do not do it to yourself!

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball