2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Emilio Pagan

For the Rays in 2019, Emilio Pagán was solid, and fantasy owners didn’t have much to complain about either. He logged 70 innings pitched, posting a 12.34 K/9 with a 1.67 BB/9 mark. Furthermore, he posted a solid 2.31 ERA and his 20 saves certainly helped fantasy owners who scooped him up off the waiver wire. He was just a few strikeouts away from reaching 100 on the year, and looked destined to anchor the Tampa Bay bullpen again in 2020. However, the Rays shipped him off to San Diego, and it devastated his fantasy value. He went from the likely closer in Tampa Bay, or at least one of them, to the primary set-up man to Kirby Yates . Pagan had a really good 2019, and we shouldn’t underestimate that, but I wouldn’t be chomping at the bit to make him the first non-closing reliever off the board.

Let’s start with the strikeout rate. Where the hell did this come from? His 36-percent strikeout rate was well above his 28.6-percent and 24.1-percent marks he posted in 2017 and 2018 respectively. It’s easy to attribute it to an increase in opponents’ O-Swing rate, diminished contact rate and elevated SwStr%. We can also see that he threw his pitches with a little more juice, and that likely contributed to a bit more movement, likely elevating the chase rate.

Is this the type of pitcher Pagan will be moving forward? Not sure, but we have one year of big time strikeout production, one year of slightly above average, and another one that was average at best, and likely below average for a reliever. It’s hard to really predict what it’s in line for him in 2020, but I do think the strikeout rate will be closer to his 2019 mark than previous seasons, but other metrics are in line for a rude awakening.

Fortunately, he’s going to a pitcher’s park, but home runs are a major issue and relievers who live and die by the fly ball tend to be rather inconsistent. Pagan induced more grounders last year, which was huge, but his fly ball rate at 46.8 percent is still way, way too high.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

We see some upticks there in 2019, compared to other years, which likely explains the jump in his HR/FB rate. Now, some of this can be explained by the fact that he rides a “rising” fastball up in the zone, and then his cutter/slider hybrid low and away to righties or right on top of the back foot of left-handed hitters. Interestingly enough, a pitcher quite similar to Pagan is Milwaukee’s Josh Hader . He does a similar type thing. He lives and dies by his fastball, typically up in the zone, and then has a wipeout slider to wreak further havoc.

Courtesy of FanGraphs

As you can see, his numbers are fairly close to Hader’s, which is encouraging for future above-average production, but at the same point, he’s similar to  Yimi Garcia and Joe Jiménez , which screams an ERA going up in 2020.

An increase in ERA for Pagan is to be expected in 2020. Yes, he posted that sparkling 2.31 ERA, but his 3.30 FIP and 3.15 xFIP indicate he outpitched his expected production. Furthermore, his .228 BABIP was well below previous marks and again, living by the fly ball is dangerous and volatile for a late-inning reliever. It can be done, but if he any regression in pitch velocity, or just some bad luck, that ERA is going TO THE MOON!

Pagan is currently the 104^th pitcher off the board, coming in at pick 285 on average, per NFBC data. There are some long reliever/starter hybrid types going before Pagan, but in terms of clear-cut setup men, he’s one of the first off the board. Sure, if anything were to happen to Kirby Yates , Pagan is an immediate plug-and-play, but otherwise, there’s more to pessimistic about with Pagan compared to optimistic. It’s a little too rich for my blood, and while the strikeouts could be solid, you can wait much later in drafts and get some innings, good strikeout numbers and about half the HR/9 and fly ball marks.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball