2018 MLB Offseason: Divisional Targets

For the sake of this piece, let’s break down the entire MLB to just six regions or divisions if you will. All of the players on those rosters are dumped into one team, so which division do you want? That’s one heck of a debate, but not what we are here to discuss. It’s time to talk about one guy from each division that you should draft to your team this upcoming season. Don’t worry, the names won’t be the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton and Trea Turner, because unless you play in a league where you own all the teams, it’s damn near impossible to get all of those guys on one team. With that in mind, here is one player from each division to target in 2018.

NL EAST:

Carlos Santana, 1B PHI

After smacking 34 home runs in 2016, Santana’s mark dropped to just 23 last season, while his slugging percentage and wOBA dropped 43 and 20 points respectively. His HR/FB ratio dropped below his career average last season, after a career high 16.9 percent in 2016. Also, ground balls went down and line drives went up. Even if his HR/FB mark progresses to the mean (roughly 14 percent) we can expect a few more home runs out of Santana this season.

Now, the lucrative part with Santana this season comes to his new home park. Per ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, the best home run mark was that of Citizens Bank Park. Yes, Citizens Bank Park had a higher home run metric than Yankee Stadium, Coors Field and Great American Ball Park! Santana’s old home park was about league average last season in this particular metric. The veteran first baseman will have protection in the lineup and could even be overlooked, despite being a guy that has shown he can hit over 30 home runs in a season. At his current draft value, he’s an absolute steal for a guy that will hit 30 home runs with at least 87 RBI in 2018.

Honorable Mention: Ronald Acuna, OF ATL

AL EAST:

Didi Gregorius, SS NYY

A left-handed bat at shortstop in Yankee Stadium? YES PLEASE. Not only did he hit 25 home runs and drive in 87 runs last season, but he slashed .287/.318/.478 with the sixth-highest WAR among qualified shortstops. After nine home runs in 155 games in 2015, Gregorius has 20 or more home runs in each of the last two seasons and he made some impressive jumps from 2016 to 2017. Despite playing fewer games, he scored more runs, notched more RBI, dropped his strikeout percentage, slightly increased his walk rate, and improved across the board in his slash line numbers. Furthermore, his BABIP was even down a few points, albeit nothing significant, but it is fun to note!

The position is deeper in 2018 than it has been in recent years, but the Bronx Bomber is barely being drafted inside the top 10 at his position! With such a favorable home park and strong supporting cast, Gregorius has a chance to build atop his numbers yet again in 2018.

Honorable Mention: Brett Honeywell, SP TB

NL CENTRAL:

Tyler Chatwood, SP CHI

Everyone loves a good table, so let’s compare two players!

Player A was Chatwood’s stat line for the entire 2017 campaign. An 8-15 record? Yikes. That ERA was approaching upper 4s, while the WHIP and batting average against were higher than us fantasy owners should frequent. Who is Player B you ask? Well, it’s Chatwood as well, but it’s only his stats on the road. When pitching away from Coors Field, Chatwood was a pretty darn good pitcher. His ERA at home last year was 6.01, but that mark was just 3.49 on the road.

With good health, he should throw around 180-185 innings this season, which should translate to valuable fantasy production at his current price. Pitching for a loaded Chicago offense, and away from Coors Field, offers the potential for a win total in the low teens, a modest K/9 and an ERA around 3.65. The righty needs to cut down on the walks and the home runs, but the latter should naturally fall when half of your innings pitched are in a launching pad in Denver.

You can get Chatwood for pennies on the dollar and at just 28 years old, we certainly haven’t seen the best version of himself yet.

Honorable Mention: Josh Bell, 1B PIT

AL CENTRAL:

Carlos Carrasco, SP CLE

Carrasco’s price will likely continue to rise during the offseason, but he’s worth every penny in 2018. If you miss on some of the bigger name starters, you can feel comfortable with Carrasco headlining your rotation. Sure, he’s only topped 200 innings once in his career, but he’s made at least 25 starts in each of the last three seasons and he absolutely balled out last year on the rubber. His K/9 jumped to 10.17, while his BB/9 and HR/9 experienced minor drops, which is always good. The right-hander’s ERA and FIP were close last season, so even though his BABIP jumped back into the .300s, he wasn’t skewed either way in terms of luck.

According to Fangraphs, only five pitchers had a higher WAR than Carrasco, and those guys are Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Luis Severino and Stephen Strasburg. Over the last three years, his 12.8 WAR is 10^th among qualified starters. Furthermore, he generated a swing-and-miss 13.4 percent of the time last season, which was tied with Chris Archer for seventh best among qualified starters in all of baseball.

The Indians will boast a solid offense yet again, and a reliable bullpen, anchored by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, will preserve his wins. Kluber may attract the majority of the attention after a fantastic 2017 campaign, but it will be Carrasco that is the more valuable Cleveland starter in 2018. The 30-year-old righty will make a serious run for the Cy Young award this season, so make sure you have plenty of shares.

Honorable Mention: Yonder Alonso, 1B CLE

NL WEST:

Kenley Jansen, RP LAD

It may be against the grain here, but perhaps locking down one of the top closers earlier on in the draft is the way to go in 2018. Rather than rolling the dice with some of the riskier No. 2 arms out there, grabbing a reliable, elite option at an unstable position sets you up quite well moving forward. Even if Jansen is the first pitcher you select, you can come back a round or two later and select a guy like Chris Archer or Carlos Martinez, who can easily headline your starting rotation. Sure, neither of those two are Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber, but it’s a steep drop-off from Jansen to the likes of Edwin Diaz and Felipe Rivero. Furthermore, this allows you to get an elite source of saves, and load your team with two, maybe even three, big time hitters at the start of your draft. Sign me up for that!

Jansen has saved 35 or more games in each of the last four seasons, while dropping his ERA every season since 2014, highlighted by a bedazzled 1.32 mark last season. For his career, his K/9 sits at 14.0, while he walks just 2.4 batters per nine innings. He’s one of the few closers in fantasy baseball that offer elite production in saves, strikeouts and unwavering job security. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Jansen and go against the grain. Fortune favors the bold.

Honorable Mention: Taijuan Walker, SP ARI

AL WEST:

Delino DeShields, OF TEX

Drafting DeShields gives you a nice boost in the stolen base department, but he doesn’t provide pop. However, you know that going into it, so you can structure your team accordingly early on to make up for the lack of power DeShields provides. DeShields may not be high on your list right now, but he’s bound to move up within minutes. Let’s compare two players:

Player A is, of course, DeShields, while Player B is Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton. Sure, Hamilton’s much more of a demon on the basepaths than DeShields, but look at the batting average and on-base percentage columns. DeShields has a substantial advantage in those categories, and when you consider the price point between the two, gimme the guy in Texas over the speedster in Cincinnati! In a 12-team league, Hamilton will cost a fifth-round pick, whereas DeShields is a bargain near the end of the 17^th round! Assuming the two go at their current ADP and replicate last year’s stolen base numbers, are those 30 stolen bases worth selecting a guy TWELVE ROUNDS earlier?

DeShields should be an everyday outfielder for the Rangers and with time, could creep up to the top of the order. If that’s the case, his fantasy value only rises. He’s criminally underpriced at this point in the offseason and finding a player with an upside of stolen bases in the mid-30s this late in the draft is few and far between. Lock him in.

Honorable Mention: Cam Bedrosian, RP LAA