Friday’s NCAA Tournament schedule is jam-packed with interesting first-round matchups to wager on. Let’s dive in and make some March Madness picks with our NCAA Tournament predictions for today’s slate of games. 

As you track your March Madness brackets, consider these betting picks to enjoy college basketball to the fullest! These NCAA tournament predictions for today, March 22 feature the New Mexico vs. Clemson, Nebraska vs. Texas A&M, and Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s matchups. 

 

 

 

All odds and lines are subject to change before tip-offs, so be sure to shop around to find the best numbers. Good luck!

*Editor’s Note: Make sure to explore all of Servo's latest content from this week, focusing on his March Madness picks!

March Madness First Round Picks & Predictions: 2024 NCAA Tournament, 3/22

New Mexico vs. Clemson Prediction: Lobos ML (-137 at FanDuel)

It’s not often we see a double-digit seed favored in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but that’s what we have here with New Mexico. The No. 11 seed Lobos are the favorites vs. No. 6 Clemson and we’re siding with Vegas here. 

New Mexico comes in red hot after winning the Mountain West conference tournament and beating Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State in consecutive nights – three NCAA Tournament teams. Top-notch guard play usually leads to March Madness success and the Lobos have that in Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. 

They also boast a strong frontcourt with talented freshman JT Toppin and senior Nelly Junior Joseph providing balanced production offensively. The Lobos run at the 8th-fastest tempo in college basketball and that quick pace will be a problem for Clemson to match. 

The Tigers are 260th in pace and prefer to run things through big man PJ Hall. He could be limited with New Mexico having the size and skill down low to force others to step up. Clemson also enters the Tournament on a lull, losing three of its past four games – including a one-and-done appearance in the ACC tourney. 

New Mexico is the highest-rated double-digit seed in every advanced metric and probably should be seeded better than a No. 11. In fact, the Lobos also rate out better than Clemson does – hence the betting line being in their favor. Let’s take New Mexico on the money line to get this first-round victory. 

 

 

 

Nebraska vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Over 146.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel)

The No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup in the South region should be a fun one between two teams playing well at the end of the season. Nebraska is 7-2 in its last nine games while Texas A&M is 5-1 in its past six contests. Instead of picking a winner straight-up or against the spread here, let’s just root for points of any kind and grab the over. 

Nebraska plays at an above-average pace, averaging 16 seconds per offensive possession (45th-highest in the country). The Cornhuskers also boast the 36th-best offensive efficiency, per KenPom, while deploying a three-point-heavy attack. They launch threes at a top-40 rate in the sport and made nearly 38% from deep in conference play. Nebraska boasts five different players who shot at least 38% from three-point range against Big Ten competition, headlined by Keisei Tominaga and Brice Williams usually getting the green light. 

The ‘Huskers should get plenty of looks from beyond the arc in this matchup because Texas A&M’s defense allows opponents to score from three-point range at the 10th-highest rate in college basketball. Aggies head coach Buzz Williams has used a zone defense more often later in the season and that naturally results in more three-point attempts. Nebraska will gladly take them and should make about 40% on average. 

Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s offense had been low-scoring and inefficient for much of the season. Well, the Aggies have seen positive regression in their own shooting numbers over the past few weeks and it’s resulting in higher-scoring games overall. Five straight A&M games have hit the over with the offense averaging 85.6 PPG in this stretch. This improved offensive output has also coincided with Williams making a lineup change by inserting Manny Obaseki into the starting rotation. 

The Aggies are much better offensively with him providing a scoring boost alongside the stud guard duo of Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford. Overall this season, Texas A&M games are 22-13 to the over (63%) while Nebraska’s are 22-11 to the over (67%). This matchup indicates a higher-scoring total than the current lines suggest as we could see either or both teams eclipse 80 points. Plus, 17 of the last 25 NCAA Tournament matchups between No. 8 and 9 seeds have gone over (68%). 

 

 

 

Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction: Antelopes +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

This is an upset pick I suggested earlier this week right after the brackets came out. If Grand Canyon can’t win it outright, though, let’s bet them against the spread to keep it close vs. Saint Mary’s on Friday night. The Antelopes are a very dangerous No. 12 seed, bringing in a 29-4 record this season. They ran through the WAC with relative ease and even boast a non-con win over San Diego State from earlier this year. The ‘Lopes also played South Carolina tough back in November – so their experience against Tournament-caliber teams is there. 

Grand Canyon, headed by coach Bryce Drew, has one of the best mid-major players in the country in Tyon Grant-Foster. The wing playmaker, who once played at Kansas, averages 19.8 PPG and gives the Antelopes a stud scorer to lean on. They also have athleticism and length at every other position. That’s key when facing Saint Mary’s, which is very sound defensively (top 15 in the sport) but lacks that athleticism overall. 

The Gaels beat teams up with fundamental play, smart passing, and good rebounding. That worked very well in the lesser West Coast conference against many bottom-tier teams. When Saint Mary’s has to face more athletic rosters that can push the pace and force games higher scoring, it can be a problem. That was evident earlier this season when the Gaels lost five of their first eight games to begin the year. 

An interesting trend to note is that Saint Mary’s has lost in the first round in five of its last nine NCAA Tournament appearances. The Gaels have also failed to get past the second round in eight of its last nine March Madness berths. 

On the flip side, Grand Canyon comes in hungry after getting a taste of Tournament play last season. It lost to Gonzaga but covered as underdogs in the first round. Bryce Drew’s Antelopes also covered as dogs in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. 

 

 

 

Other March Madness First Round Predictions & Picks: Friday, 3/22