Kansas City @ Los Angeles
Thursday 8:20 pm ET
Spread: Kansas City -2.5
O/U: 52.0
Storylines
The last time we saw these teams match-up it was an impressive showing from the Chargers to go into Arrowhead and get a win. However, that wasn’t the same Chiefs that are playing this week and just about everyone in the league knows it at this point. If the Chargers can pull the home win on a short week, it’ll be a big tiebreaker in their favor, should they tie with the Chiefs at the end of the year. That being said, they’re a bit undermanned from what they were last time with Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Derwin James, and Rashawn Slater all potentials to miss the game. For the Chiefs, if you haven’t been paying attention, this could be the seventh straight game in which they allow 17 points or less to their opponents given who’s potentially missing for L.A.
Top Plays
Kansas City: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The run game isn’t something we really think about with the Chiefs but in this case it’s a special case. The Chargers are still rough against the run, ranking 32nd in Rush DVOA and 31st in yards per game allowed. They’ve improved a bit in recent weeks but the last time CEH faced them he toted the rock 17 times for 100 yards and caught a handful of passes as well. The Chargers have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this year and if the defense gives the Chiefs a short field, Edwards-Helaire should be able to capitalize.
Los Angeles: Justin Herbert
Herbert was able to light up the Chiefs’ defense in the last match-up with four scores and nearly 300 total yards of offense. As was mentioned above, the Chiefs’ defense is a far different animal this time around, but Chris Jones, their huge impact player along the D-line, will be out with Covid-19 protocols and that makes a huge difference in that unit. We saw him put up 37 without Ekeler and Williams last week against a solid Giants’ defense so there’s a shot for a few scores and a nice chunk of yards once again.
Prediction: Chiefs 24 Chargers 20
Las Vegas @ Cleveland
Saturday 4:30 pm ET
Spread: Cleveland -3
O/U: 40.0
Storylines
The Browns were able to hold on and take care of business against an ailing Ravens squad who lost Lamar Jackson early in the game. It still wasn’t that convincing a showing though as the backup quarterback was able to lead the offense down the field seemingly at will. The Raiders on the other hand, didn’t take care of business in the least. After holding a pre-game meeting on the Chiefs’ logo at midfield, it took a whole 17 seconds for that move to back fire as Josh Jacobs fumbled and it was returned for a score. The Browns’ defense isn’t at the level of the Chiefs, but two-straight road games on a slightly shorter week might give the Browns’ the break they need to get another win as these two teams are fighting quite hard for the last playoff spot in the AFC at the moment.
Top Plays
Las Vegas: Hunter Renfrow
The offense is going through Renfrow for Vegas at the moment, that much is clear. Yes, Cleveland statistically is good against top wideouts for their opponents ranking 12th in DVOA versus WR1s but he faced Kansas City last week who ranked 10th in DVOA and still had double-digit targets and catches. The Browns also just let the backup quarterback for Baltimore to light them up and Derek Carr is second the league in passing coming into this game. Renfrow has been a PPR darling all year and that continues this weekend.
Cleveland: Nick Chubb
Okay, so he didn’t do well against Baltimore, twice, oh well, who does? Prior to that, he’d topped the century mark four times in the last five games. Las Vegas hasn’t been great against the run this year allowing over 125 yards a game (26th in the league) and ranking 16th in Rush DVOA. One other stat of note is that Vegas is the worst red zone defense in the league allowing 77-percent of trips to end in touchdowns which certainly benefits the Browns’ running game. Baker Mayfield going down with Covid also means that they’ll be more reliant on the run game as well which should increase the volume for Chubb.
Prediction: Browns 27 Raiders 21
New England @ Indianapolis
Saturday 8:15 pm ET
Spread: Indianapolis -2.5
O/U: 45.0
Storylines
Perhaps the two best teams positioned for the type of football that is required in the playoffs for the NFL get a Saturday night match-up. Both teams are very good defensively and good at running the ball when they need to and even when the other team knows that’s what they’re doing. Both teams simply rely on their quarterback not making mistakes to keep their offenses on the field and matriculating the ball down the field to paraphrase Hank Stramm. There’s a reason the lines on this game have it so close and why it’s a lower over-under, very evenly matched and defensive teams will produce that. While they are in different playoff positions, they are both in heated races for those spots as the Patriots are trying to fend off challenges from a few teams for the top spot while the Colts are trying to escape the massive group with middling records for the final spot in the AFC. One key injury to watch here is that of Damien Harris who tweaked a hamstring against Buffalo and still might not be 100-percent coming off the bye week.
Top Plays
New England: Hunter Henry
Look, we’ve seen the Patriots be more reliant on the running game down the stretch but with the aforementioned Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson splitting possessions even in the best scenario, we’ve got to rely on someone from the passing game to produce. Henry is in a good spot against a defense who’s been struggling against that position most of the year. The Colts rank fourth in most points allowed to the position and 25th in DVOA. They’ve also allowed more than 71-percent of trips to the red zone to produce touchdowns and Henry shines in the red zone, leading the Patriots in targets and touchdowns with nearly half his targets scoring points inside the 20.
Indianapolis: Jonathan Taylor
Taylor is an MVP-candidate and for good reason. The guy has been an absolute hoss this year and for as good as the Patriots have been on defense, they’re still not lockdown against the run. New England has allowed nearly 115 yards a game on the ground and 4.4 yards per carry. Taylor for his part is averaging 5.6 yards an attempt and in the last five games he’s topped the century mark four times with a whopping 10 touchdowns in that span. In order for Carson Went to succeed they need Taylor to produce and they’ll be able to scheme him into production.
Prediction: Colts 23 Patriots 21
Dallas @ New York
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Dallas -10.5
O/U: 44.5
Storylines
This game is a tale of two NFC East rivals trending in two different directions. The Cowboys are getting their defense healthy at the right time and their offense is doing just enough to win games while the Giants have a ton of injuries and are simply trying to put enough usable players on the field at one time. Dallas is coming in with a two-game winning streak as they try and seal up the NFC East while the Giants are the opposite with a two-game losing streak. Speaking of streaks, the Cowboys’ offense has topped 27 or more points in four of the last five games while it’s been nine straight games for the Giants of failing to hit 27 points and they’ve only hit it twice this season overall. That being said, one thing these teams have in common is their running backs, considered elite fantasy options coming into the year, are both not healthy and are struggling to produce consistently of late.
Top Plays
Dallas: Michael Gallup
Gallup has come back to the field with a vengeance for Dallas and has no fewer than eight targets a game in each of the last four. He’s also the only Dallas wideout with at least one red zone target in each of the last four games to boot. The Giants have struggled against number two wideouts and right now that’s where Gallup fits in the pecking order. One last boost for Gallup is the consistency with five catches in each of the last four games as well.
New York: Saquon Barkley
Barkley might not be full strength but he’s still producing in both aspects of the offense we’ve become used to seeing him be a part of in terms of rushing and receiving. He touched the ball 19 total times last week which was the most since returning and the Cowboys are still allowing over 100 total yards to the running back spot between rushing yards and receiving yards with nearly five catches a week to them. Barkley caught a score last week and could very well do that again this week. The numbers aren’t sexy, but they could be solid enough.
Prediction: Cowboys 34 Giants 17
Houston @ Jacksonville
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Jacksonville -4
O/U: 39.5
Storylines
Jacksonville will come into this game with an interim coach at the helm as Urban Meyer was let go as Head Coach early on Thursday morning. It had simply gotten to be too much of a circus and too much distraction for the owner Shad Khan to keep Meyer in place despite the five-year deal he signed when being hired. Houston on the other hand, is in basically the same spot with just a lesser-known coach but one who appears to be equally on the hot seat. It’s been more of a story of shifting offensive pieces for Houston this year as they’ve swapped quarterbacks a few times due to injuries and poor play but they’ve also swapped out running backs a few times as well and receiving targets. Jacksonville has simply been bad coaching of a young offense. This game does have the potential though to perhaps be the highest-scoring of the weekend if you’re looking for some gross looking DFS plays.
Top Plays
Houston: Brandin Cooks
Cooks is back to being what he was earlier this year and is coming off a game of more than 100 yards receiving. The Jaguars are terrible everywhere but they’re especially bad against the opponent’s WR1, ranking 30th in DVOA. If you take a look at the new Team Stat tables on FA and DFSA, you’ll see that the Jaguars are giving up the high completion percentage to wideouts on the year and nearly 75-percent of targets resulting in receptions. Big plays allowed, high target rate and a good catch rate is a recipe for success for Cooks.
Jacksonville: Laviska Shenault
So this isn’t sexy to be sure but there is a reason behind it. Shenault has been seeing an uptick in targets over the last few weeks and has seen the most targets on the team over the last three games. The Texans are solid against opponent’s top wideouts but rank 28th in DVOA against WR2s which is where Shenault comes in. Trevor Lawrence is fifth in the league in total air yards and eighth in total pass attempts so the volume should be there in this one for Shenault to see a bunch of targets. Don’t forget their first meeting this year ended 37-21 so it’s not like the defense will stop either side.
Prediction: Jaguars 30 Texans 28
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Tennessee -2
O/U: 41.5
Storylines
It’s basically the same question with both of these teams…how are they doing what they’re doing given the all the health questions on both sides of the ball? Ben Roethlisberger has looked near death at times this year and then somehow every so often has games like the second half last week against Minnesota where he looks 12 years younger. Tennessee has basically their entire starting lineup injured and just got Julio Jones back last week but defensively there’s still big holes to fill. Both teams are well coached by two of the best motivators in the coaching ranks so don’t expect either team to show up flat, it’s just a matter of figuring out, to paraphrase Scott Van Pelt, “how good is their good” going to be on Sunday? This game is the quintessential example of one that’s either going to be a low-scoring slugfest or an unexpected shootout.
Top Plays
Tennessee: D'Onta Foreman
Even with Derrick Henry going down, we’ve still seen the Titans’ offense go through the run game over the last handful of games and Foreman has been at the forefront of that. We’ve seen him get 15 or more touches in each of the last two games and now he gets a Steelers’ defense that hasn’t been great against the run this year, giving up the third-most yards per game on the ground and the most yards per rush. It’s not just a matter of match-ups either as they rank 30th in DVOA against the rush too. With 47.3-percent of the Titans’ plays being runs, third-highest in the league, Foreman will get a good amount of volume and should see the majority of red zone work as well.
Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson
Another week, another double-digit target week for Johnson as it’s been five-straight games with at least 10 targets and in all but two games overall this year. The Titans are allowing the most yards to wideouts this year and are tied for second in most touchdowns allowed to the position as well at 16 in 13 games. The best part is that we’re not relying on Big Ben to have another good week as even when he’s been bad this year, Johnson’s put up consistently good stats. One more kicker, Johnson faced Tennessee last year and saw 15 targets while catching nine of them for 80 yards and two scores.
Prediction: Titans 31 Steelers 30
New York @ Miami
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Miami -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Storylines
About the only thing the Jets can do at this point is to play spoiler for playoff spots and/or seeding down the stretch. They’ll certainly be looking to do that to their AFC East rivals this weekend as the Dolphins are still alive in the playoff picture. The Jets’ offense is pretty depleted at this point heading into this game but if they can muster the motivation it could still be a game. The Dolphins on the other hand, at 6-7, are one of 13 teams in the AFC still fighting for seven playoff spots but they are 13th due to tiebreakers. That means not only will they have to win but they’ll also need help. That being said, their offense has been better of late having won five-straight coming into this one. Last time these two played, in Week 11, it was a four-point line and a 44.5 over under when the Dolphins won 24-17.
Top Plays
New York: Zach Wilson
Look, there’s no one else we can reasonably put in this spot for the Jets. They’re missing a ton of offense weapons at this point and even if Michael Carter comes back off the IR, they likely ease him back in as there’s no point in giving him a full workload. Wilson has started looking better the last few weeks and gets a Dolphins’ defense that can be taken advantage of from week-to-week. It’s not a top-10 quarterback option by any means but Miami has given up the third-most passing yards to quarterbacks and the eighth-most fantasy points.
Miami: Tua Tagovailoa
Updated Thursday 12:00 pm ET
This was previously a Jaylen Waddle blurb but with him being placed on the Covid-IR on Thursday, clearly he's not an option. The Dolphins will be without their top few receiving threats and top-three running backs, before they called up Duke Johnson from the practice squad and possibly getting Malcolm Brown back from IR for the first time since Week 7. So Miami will be leaning on Tagovailoa for the offense and he had a big day against the Jets in Week 11 with 273 yards passing and two scores. The Jets rank dead last in Pass DVOA and give up the sixth-most passing yards per game as well. This is pretty much the best opponent for them to face with so many key offensive weapons out. Another interesting play would be the Dolphins' defense as they've been good at forcing turnovers and Zach Wilson is still turnover prone and is lacking weapons as well.
Prediction: Dolphins 27 Jets 14
Washington @ Philadelphia
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Philadelphia -5.5
O/U: 44.5
Storylines
The first meeting between these two NFC East rivals. It’s pretty unusual for the first meeting to be coming this late in the year but the NFL, especially in this division, really backloaded the divisional match-ups to up the playoff drama this year. Washington saw their winning streak come to an end last week, though in a valiant effort, against Dallas as losing Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin to injuries was a bit too much to overcome. Philly on the other hand, had a bye week last week and smoked the Jets in Week 13 giving them rest and momentum to finish off their schedule with four-straight divisional games, three of which are at home. If neither McLaurin nor Heinicke can go for Washington this will be a much tougher test for Washington. Not to mention that as of Wednesday, there are 15 players on the Covid list for Washington including backup QB Kyle Allen.
Top Plays
Washington: Antonio Gibson
The last several weeks we’ve seen Gibson be the workhorse back in the Washington backfield and that’s what led Washington on their winning streak. Now with question marks in the passing game, they’ll need Gibson to carry the load if the offense hopes to move the ball down the field. It won’t be an easy task as the Eagles rank 15th in Rush DVOA and are allowing just the 20th-most points per game to the position and that’s to team with healthy quarterbacks. Speaking of healthy quarterbacks, if we knew who’d be under center then there’d be a chance we could play either Logan Thomas or Ricky Seals-Jones at TE as the Eagles are horrible against that spot, but the lack of a known passer lowers their value.
Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts
If you believe the reports we saw trickling out of Philly during the bye week, it seems as though the front office is still split on whether or not Hurts is the right guy or not for the starting quarterback spot. That means he’s under the gone to keep proving himself and gets a tasty match-up to do it in against Washington. They’ve allowed the most points to quarterbacks this year as well as the third-most passing yards per game and top-five rushing yards to quarterbacks per game too. That’s before their defense was hit by Covid like it was on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurts could very well have a field day on Sunday. Also look for Miles Sanders to get nice garbage time production as well.
Prediction: Eagles 31 Washington 17
Arizona @ Detroit
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Arizona -13.5
O/U: 47.5
Storylines
Since starting the year 7-0, Arizona has now gone 3-3 in their last six games as the race for home field advantage in the NFC is drastically tightening down the stretch. If the Cardinals win out, they’ll have that honor outright, but one more loss and the Packers and Buccaneers winning out means they’d by either the two or three seed depending on tiebreakers. Detroit walked into an emotional buzzsaw in Denver last week as the Broncos put on a show for their former teammate Demaryius Thomas and suffered their second-worst loss of the year. That being said, they’ve been a very competitive team prior to that game with the four games from Week 10-13 being settled by a combined three points and a 1-2-1 record. This might not be the easiest of get right opponents for the Cardinals though they should get Chase Edmonds back in the fold in the backfield which is good with James Conner coming in questionable.
Top Plays
Arizona: Chase Edmonds
Edmonds is due back off IR this week and what a good match-up it is to be getting his legs back under him. The Lions are allowing the third-most points to running backs per game this year and rank 29th in DVOA against the rush. Prior to getting injured, Edmonds wasn’t just seeing carries he was also seeing targets and if DeAndre Hopkins can’t go due to his injury, some of those looks could get dumped off to Edmonds. Detroit has also allowed the most receiving touchdowns to running backs this year as well.
Detroit: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Last week he was my top play even in a gross match-up and he came throw with 12 targets for the second-straight week. This week it’s more of the same as the Cardinals’ pass defense is tough and hasn’t given up much in the way of yards to opposing receivers practically all year. That being said, St. Brown has steadily seen more routes each week and plays a big snap share which means the chance for volume and one last thing in his favor is that Arizona is tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed to wideouts this year with 17.
Prediction: Cardinals 28 Lions 20
Carolina @ Buffalo
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread: Buffalo -11
O/U: 44.5
Storylines
What a crazy pair of games it’s been for the Bills the last two weeks with both turning into losses. As Tony Romo said on the CBS broadcast last week, they might be the most complete 7-6 team out there and certainly have the best defense of any team in the mass of teams around .500 in the AFC. While close against the Patriots in terrible weather and the defending champs on the road is nice, it’s hard to take morale victories at this point in the season but that’s just what Carolina is trying to do at this point. Having already fired their offensive coordinator on their bye week and still not having any answers at quarterback, they’re simply trying to play as hard as they can the rest of the way and want this season to end sooner rather than later. On paper this is a mismatch both offensively and defensively and if the Bills can put together two haves of solid football, they should send Carolina packing pretty easily, but odder things have happened.
Top Plays
Carolina: Cam Newton
Now that I’m done throwing up in my mouth from even writing this, why is Newton the best option? Last game he looked better and at least completed passes to his own team while having 10 rushes for 47 yards and a score. The Bills are incredibly tough on opposing quarterbacks but the added bonus of the rushing yards and potential rushing score(s) is a plus. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson both saw 12 targets last week but who know who’s getting the ball this week in this coverage and the rushing attack is very up in the air. So roll with Newton as a flier in DFS.
Buffalo: Stefon Diggs
Diggs is clearly the top target in the Buffalo passing game and Carolina ranks dead last in DVOA against WR1 foes. While it was a disappointing output day for Diggs last week, it wasn’t for lack of trying it was simply due to the refs not noticing him getting his jersey pulled seemingly every target his way. That won’t happen again this week against a weaker defense. Expect to see Diggs close to or over 100 yards and a score as Josh Allen and him take advantage of the fact that Carolina always the second-highest completion rate to wideouts in the league.
Prediction: Bills 35 Panthers 14
Cincinnati @ Denver
Sunday 4:05 pm ET
Spread: Denver -2.5
O/U: 44.5
Storylines
The question for the Broncos is this…how are their emotions after last week and will this be a letdown game? They were so driven to have a good game in honor of Demaryius Thomas last week over the Lions, the Bengals could catch them napping here in a bit of a trap game for them. There’s also the fact that the Bengals come in losers of two straight and now back in the mess that is the AFC playoff picture desperately needing a win to gain some ground, or at least not lose any. While the Bengals have put up 22 or more in four straight games coming into this one, Denver has only allowed more than 17 points by opposing offenses once since Week 6 and that includes some good offenses in Kansas City, the Chargers, and Dallas.
Top Plays
Cincinnati: Ja'Marr Chase
Chase got back in the end zone last week, twice, and saw eight targets for the second game in a row. The Broncos on the surface have been a good defense against wideouts but in the last several games they’ve still given up solid performances, one after the other, including a good day from Amon-Ra St. Brown last week. If Joe Burrow’s hand is still ok, Chase will be the top target again, as Tee Higgins’ recent hot streak should draw the top cover corner’s attention much of the day.
Denver: Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams
The Bengals’ rush defense has been good much of the year but they’ve not faced a two-headed monster like this one in Denver, yes including them playing the Browns and Ravens. Gordon came back last week from being questionable and still out-carried Williams and got in the end zone twice to Williams’ one trip. That being said, he is questionable again this week and Williams has shown he can take the lead if need be.
Prediction: Bengals 17 Broncos 14
Atlanta @ San Francisco
Sunday 4:05 pm ET
Spread: San Francisco -9.5
O/U: 46.0
Storylines
The Falcons are perhaps the most perplexing 6-7 team in the league as looking at their roster there should be no way they’re that close to .500 but yet here they are. Meanwhile, looking at the Niners roster you could come to the conclusion that there’s no way they should be just 7-6 but injuries explain that more than anything. They’ve also gotten here in two different ways as the Niners have needed to go 4-1 in the last five games to get to this record while the Falcons have continued alternating wins and losses, much like they have all year. If you watch both teams as well, there is a bit of smoke and mirrors being used by both, especially on offense, to get their results.
Top Plays
Atlanta: Cordarrelle Patterson
There are only really two options on the Falcons’ offense at this point and with the Niners being the second-toughest team for tight ends, Patterson is the option. He’s a jack of all trades and gets plenty of touches in the rushing and passing game to up his shot for yards and scores. San Fran has still allowed more than 100 yards a game on the ground and more than five catches a game to backs. It’s also possible that they use Patterson to keep the Niners offense off the field as well.
San Francisco: Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk is the hot hand in the passing game for the Niners right now and as such we’ll be rolling with him since San Fran’s offense has been utilizing the hot hand all year. Atlanta’s pass defense isn’t anything to write home about as they rank 29th in DVOA against WR1s and 32nd in DVOA against WR2s while allowing the 10th-most points to the position overall in half-PPR formats. Digging a bit deeper, Aiyuk leads the Niners’ receivers in aDoT at 10.0 yards and the Falcons are giving up nearly seven yards a pass attempt which ranks 19th in the league and eight-percent of pass plays are explosive plays, longer than 20 yards, which is middle of the pack.
Prediction: 49ers 31 Falcons 17
Seattle @ Los Angeles
Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Spread: Los Angeles -4.5
O/U: 45.0
Storylines
The Seahawks are just here to play spoiler at this point given their season is long over but they can still have a say in the NFC playoff picture and especially their divisional race. They did that to the 49ers last week could they do it to the Rams this week? This could be a quintessential trap game for the Rams after emotional and big win over the Cardinals in primetime. The Rams have been hit hard by Covid this week with some key guys out but also a decent amount of depth options not available which could leave them short handed heaven forbid and injury or two crop up. Let’s also be aware that Seattle is arguably the easiest team, record and playing wise, left on their schedule with Minnesota, Baltimore and San Fran left. On the injury side for Seattle, the main one is D.K. Metcalf being banged up as well as Carlos Dunlap.
Top Plays
Seattle: D.K. Metcalf
Updated 4:05 pm ET
Things have been rough for Metcalf of late in general and dealing with a nagging injury as well. There is risk here that he only hits his low floor but there is an impressive ceiling here too. The Rams rank 21st in DVOA against WR1s before losing Jalen Ramsey for this week and Metcalf is now the number one option with Tyler Lockett on the Covid list and if the Seahawks want to stay in the game, they‘ll need to pass and pass it well too.
Los Angeles: Cooper Kupp
C’mon it’s Kupp. It really doesn’t matter the match-up at this point given the year he’s having and even when Matthew Stafford was a walking bandage against the Packers. It also doesn’t hurt that Seattle is allowing the most passing yards per game which means the volume will once again be there for Kupp to capitalize on.
Prediction: Rams 27 Seahawks 24
Green Bay @ Baltimore
Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Spread: Green Bay -5
O/U: 43.5
Storylines
The Packers come in with a chance to move into the top seed in the NFC and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, if they can knock off the Ravens with potentially a backup quarterback under center. But hey, that backup quarterback had a great day coming in for Lamar Jackson last week after he went down with a sprained ankle against the Browns. Aaron Rodgers did say his toe isn’t feeling great right now, but he’s not coming off the field for surgery just yet so expect to see more of the offense that’s put up 31 or more points in three straight games. Neither team has been effected by the Covid outbreak this week, to this point, but it doesn’t mean that there aren’t key injuries to watch for as the week of practice continues to unfold.
Top Plays
Green Bay: Davante Adams
If you look at the DVOA rank for the Ravens against WR1s it sits at 15th, but that was with Marlon Humphrey on the field and him not being on the field has created a big void in the secondary. Adams is a target hog and produces well off those targets so far and if Baker Mayfield was able to get his receivers to have good days last week, what do we think Rodgers is going to be able to do for Adams this week? The rush defense for the Ravens is tough which limits the upside for either option out of the backfield.
Baltimore: Mark Andrews
The Packers rank 23rd in DVOA against the tight end position and they haven’t really seen many guys like Andrews opposite them on the line. Let’s, while we’re at it, allay some of the concern if Jackson doesn’t play with the fact that Andrews saw 11 targets last week which led the team and had more than 100 yards receiving. If the Packers’ pass rush can make things tough on the Ravens’ QB, Andrews will be a great option for short routes and dump offs which only up his volume overall.
Prediction: Packers 34 Ravens 24
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Sunday 8:20 pm ET
Spread: Tampa Bay -11
O/U: 46.5
Storylines
Taysom Hill has been putting on a show on the field and for fantasy managers alike. However, that show might come to end this week as a huge part of his value has been his ability to run and not just make throws and we all know what Tamps’s rush defense is like at this point. Meanwhile, Tampa just keeps rolling, especially at home where they’re unbeaten and have been playing their best ball all year. At this point the Buccaneers are squarely in the discussion for the top seed in the NFC and getting this divisional win would be a big notch in the belt, especially if the other two teams win earlier in the day. A couple of key players are potentially at risk of missing this week’s game depending on Covid tests for the Saints as well.
Top Plays
New Orleans: Taysom Hill
So given the intro are we surprised to see Hill as the top play and not say, Alvin Kamara? The rush defense is enough to scare folks off of playing Kamara as well as Mark Ingram being out with Covid, potentially, but why is Hill there then? Well the Bucs’ defense has been a sieve to quarterbacks in terms of passing yards this year allowing the ninth-most passing yards a game and the third-most points to the quarterback as well. Here’s the final surprising stat, the Bucs’ defense has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks specifically and the last two scrambling quarterbacks they’ve faced in Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen combined for 22 carries, 153 yards, and three rushing touchdowns. Looking good for Hill.
Tampa Bay: Chris Godwin
The Saints’ defense has been tough against the top two targets for their opponents much of the year. However, they’ve still allowed the fifth-most yards to wideouts on the year and rank 16th in DVOA against WR2s as well as allow the fourth-most points to the position per game. I’m burying the lede here though as Godwin has seen 32, yes THIRTY TWO, targets in the last two games combined. That’s a huge amount of volume and frankly it shouldn’t be shocking as Godwin has been Brady’s favorite target since getting to Tampa.
Prediction: Buccaneers 34 Saints 24
Minnesota @ Chicago
Monday 8:15 pm ET
Spread: Minnesota -3.5
O/U: 44.0
Storylines
For the first time this year we get the Vikings facing the Bears which is pretty late in the year to be facing a divisional opponent for the first time but might come just at the right time for the Bears to play spoiler in the division in primetime no less. The Vikings nearly gave away a game against Pittsburgh last week and had to scramble late to stop the comeback, plus you know let Chase Claypool celebrate on his own. The Bears for their part have scored more points in each of the last four games though three of those games have been loses including a primetime loss to their arch rival Packers 45-30 last week. Both of these teams were hit by the Covid outbreak on Wednesday and have some key players who are in jeopardy of missing the game as of this writing. If the Bears take another loss will they take the cue from Jacksonville and fire Matt Nagy or can Nagy stir up the team for a late season stretch run of good games?
Top Plays
Minnesota: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook
This isn’t a cop out I promise, it’s just splitting hairs is pointless at this point in the season and both are studs in favorable match-ups. Jefferson has 29 targets in the last two games and four touchdowns over the last four contests heading into a game against a team that ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1s while giving up the most touchdowns to wideouts in the league and sixth-most points per game to the position. Cook is coming off a massive game against Pittsburgh and the Bears are equally as bad against the run as top flight wideouts. Chicago is allowing 120 yards a game on the ground and rank 22nd in DVOA against the rush. Both guys are in great spots as the focal points of a Vikings offense needing points.
Chicago: David Montgomery
Monty has been the focal point of the Bears’ offense since returning and he, for the most part, hasn’t disappointed. The Vikings are giving up nearly 130 yards a game on the ground and in big chunks too allowing the second-most yards per carry in the league at 4.7. Let’s not forget that Montgomery can catch the ball as well and the Vikings has given up the third-most receiving touchdowns to running backs this year. Justin Fields has been too inconsistent to rely on him against a weak Vikings pass defense, but Monty doesn’t have the same consistency problem that Fields does.
Prediction: Vikings 28 Bears 27