Yu Darvish (SP-TEX)

 

Injury – He underwent Tommy John surgery in early 2015 due to a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

 

2015 Season – Darvish missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  He began throwing in August 2015 but did not throw off a mound.

 

Reason For Optimism  

  • Darvish is still only 29 years old and has only pitched just under three full seasons in the big leagues. 
  • The Rangers vastly improved their roster in 2015 so he will return as the ace of a playoff-contending team.
  • Pitchers such as Adam Wainwright and Matt Harvey have successfully come back from Tommy John surgery in the past few years and returned to elite status.
  • The time off could actually have benefited Darvish who broke down at the end of 2014 after pitching an extremely heavy workload in 2012 and 2013.

 

Reason For Concern

  • Darvish still hasn’t thrown off a mound yet so we don‘t know whether he will have any setbacks.
  • Despite recent success stories of pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery, most pitchers require extended periods of time before regaining their full velocity, command and endurance.
  • The Rangers hope to contend for another AL West division title and could have a short leash on Darvish if he struggles upon his return.

 

2016 OUTLOOK – Darvish was unquestionably an ace fantasy pitcher heading into 2015 before requiring Tommy John surgery.  He is not expected back in the big leagues until May at the earliest, but that is dependent on how well he responds to pitching off a mound to live batters during the spring.  The most we can expect from him is 25 starts assuming he comes back on the earliest possible projected date, but that is still a stretch.  Darvish carries a lot of risk with him in 2016 fantasy baseball redraft leagues, so do not overpay for him.  He has elite upside, but it is not fair to expect similar results as Matt Harvey had in 2015.  Assuming he can return in May and remain healthy, Darvish should be able to accrue double-digit wins with a respectable ERA and K/9 ratio.  It will be necessary to monitor his velocity and command, and it is also concerning that he will pitch most of his games in humid Texas air and a hitter-friendly ballpark.     

 

If you are wondering the best way to evaluate players such as Darvish so that you can be prepared for your draft, then be sure to check out the 2016 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. 

Michael A. Stein, Esq. is the Chief Justice of Fantasy Judgment, the industry's premier dispute resolution service, and co-host of the Fantasy Alarm Podcast.  You can contact him at michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com or on Facebook and Twitter (@FantasyJudgment),