Homer Bailey (SP-CIN)

Injury He suffered a flexor tendon injury which required season-ending surgery.

2014 Season – Bailey turned an average 2013 season into a $100M contract and promptly disappointed the Reds and fantasy GM’s with a pedestrian performance in 2014.  He compiled a record of 9-5 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP before being shut down late in the year.  One of the more alarming statistics Bailey produced was the dramatic decrease in his BB/K ration compared to the previous season.  He finished 2014 with a ratio of 2.76 BB/K in almost 65 less innings which was down from 3.69 in 2013.

Reason For Optimism  

  • Bailey had been a workhorse since becoming a fixture in the Reds’ rotation in 2012
  • The increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts in 2014 was attributable to his injury, so once he is fully healthy we can expect a return to his 2013 numbers.
  • Even if he is not ready for Opening Day, he is not expected to miss significant time and should be back within the first couple weeks of the season.

Reason For Concern

  • Bailey has had a slow recovery from surgery and will likely begin the season on the DL.
  • He has never put up numbers that are representative of a top fantasy pitcher, so there is no reason to expect anything different especially after a surgical procedure.
  • Injuries to the flexor tendon effect the ability of a pitcher to grip the ball, so Bailey’s mechanics could be impacted as he works his way back..

2015 OUTLOOKThe Reds have acknowledged that Bailey is a bit behind in his recovery and that chances are he will begin the season on the disabled list.  They made an expensive long-term commitment to him, so it is not surprising that Cincinnati will be cautious with their investment.  The problem is that Bailey has never provided much more than mediocre statistics from a fantasy perspective, so he is not someone to be targeting as a reliable member of your team’s pitching staff.  He is worth taking a flyer on late in a draft if you are looking for some pitching depth, but he should not be counted on as one of your starters irrespective of whether he begins the season on the DL or not.  Assuming he has no further setbacks and can return in April, don’t expect much more than 10-12 wins with 150 strikeouts to go along with a pedestrian ERA and WHIP.

If you are wondering the best way to evaluate players such as Bailey so that you can be prepared for your draft, then be sure to find out how to get your free copy of the incredible 2015 Fantasy Alarm Baseball Draft Guide.

Michael A. Stein, Esq. is the Chief Justice of Fantasy Judgment, the industry's premier dispute resolution service, and co-host of the Fantasy Alarm Podcast.  You can contact him at michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com or on Facebook and Twitter (@FantasyJudgment),