I say it every season -- we spend waaaaaaayy too much time worrying about the first round. It is nowhere close to a lock that your first-round selection will perform like a first-round selection. In fact, the data says exactly the opposite. So why, each and every season, do we perseverate on what to do in the first round? Because we think it matters.

We think there must be some advantage to taking Player A over Player B. There has to be a better player to take than the one others believe. We even think it matters as to what pick we have in the first round. How many times have I been asked, “Hey Ray, if given the choice, which pick would you choose in Round 1?” I’m not saying that I don’t prefer certain players. It would be stupid for me to suggest I didn’t have a preference, but I’m not going to feel like my draft is lost if I don’t get the guy I want in the first round, and neither should you. Why? History tells us we stink at predicting who will produce, and that means all the...

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