Evan Longoria was supposed to be a Hall of Fame producer after being the third pick in the 2006 MLB Entry Draft.

He also married a hottie in Jamie Edmonson.

It was easy to think greatness was around the corner for the third sacker.

It hasn’t exactly been all roses, but that’s setting the bar pretty damn high for yourself after you marry a Playmate and have the level of talent on the diamond that Evan does.

Here is what Longoria has accomplished as a 30 year old heading into his 9th big league season.

Since 2008 Longoria has 205 home runs. No third baseman in baseball has more (Adrian Beltre is second with 196).

Since 2008 Longoria has 708 runs batted in. No third baseman in baseball has more (Beltre is second with 682).

Since 2008 Longoria has 628 runs scored. The only man with more is Adrian Beltre (639).

AVERAGE / ON BASE SKILLS

Longoria is the owner of a .271 career batting average.

He hit .270 last season.

That’s the only time in three seasons that he’s hit .270 so it’s no lock that he will reach his career levels in the coming season.

Longoria owns a .302 career BABIP. In three of the last four seasons he’s been between .309-.313 range (he only missed at .285 in 2014). League average, and consistent here.

Longoria owns a 19.7 percent line drive mark for his career. He’s been over that mark in three of four seasons including marks of 20.4 and 20.6 the last two seasons.

Longoria has struck out 132 or more times the last three seasons. Remember that he’s only missed four games the last three years so that isn’t a terrible set of numbers though be careful of this: Longoria has seen his swinging K-rate increase from 8.4 percent in 2011, a career best, to 10.4 percent the last two seasons.

Unfortunately for Longoria, while his K-rate has held steady, his walk rate has plummeted. The numbers aren’t good.

2011: 13.9 percent BB-rate
2012: 10.6 percent
2013: 10.1 percent
2014: 8.1 percent
2015: 7.6 percent

The batting average isn’t going to improve. At least it’s not likely.

HOME RUNS

Longoria has hit at least 21 home runs in every season in which he has played 122 games. He hit 17 homers the one time he missed in 2012 in a mere 74 games. He should hit that number – 21 – yet again, but at the same time…

Longoria has seen his HR/FB ratio recede. From 2011-13 Longoria was at or above 15.7 percent each season. The last two years have produced identical marks of 10.8 percent, barely better than the league average. He’s also seen his fly ball rate receded to the point the mark has been under 40.7 percent the last two seasons (compared to 42.2 percent for his career). In order for Evan to hit 25+ long balls he’s going to have to avoid the DL and see a slight uptick in his fly ball rate or a return to his career 14.8 percent HR/FB mark.

RBI

Longoria has two 100-RBI seasons back in 2009-10. It’s been a while since he reached that plateau. However, he’s hit 88 RBI in 3-of-4 years since then in which he’s appeared in 130 games. The last three seasons Longoria has averaged 84 runs batted in. No reason to think that number does anything but remain right around that level (he’s been over it 2-of-3 years).

RUNS

The last two years have been the two worst OBP marks from Longoria at .320 and .328. As his OBP recedes it’s just smart politics to expect that his run scored mark will not improve (genius Ray, genius). In 2-of-3 healthy seasons Longoria has scored at least 83 runs and his average the past three seasons is… 83 runs scored, so it’s not like he isn’t productive in runs scored.

STEALS

Longoria stole 15 bases in his third season and it’s not exactly a common occurrence for a third sacker to go 20/15 as he did that year. Alas, that’s the only time he’s hit double-digits in the theft column in his career. Since that big effort he’s played five seasons and has stolen a total of 14 bases. He’s not going to steal more than a handful of bags in 2016. At least he’s only been caught once on nine attempts the last three seasons.

HEALTH

At one point it seemed like every time you turned round that Longoria was beat up physically. However, the guy has missed a total of four games that last three seasons. Think about how many guys miss four games a month anymore. Moreover, if we remove those two injury plagued seasons of 2011 and 2012 we’re talking about a guy who has appeared in 151 or more games in 5-straight season (another way to say it would be that in 5-of-7 seasons he’s appeared in 151 games). Given all the injuries fellas seem to deal with each year it’s good to know you can count on a fella, isn’t it?

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, 

rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

 

OUTLOOK

No third baseman is better in the counting categories since 2008 than Longoria, so why is it that he’s almost an afterthought in 2016? Perception of course. Think what you want about Longoria, but it’s pretty hard to think that his career hasn’t been a rousing success, even if it’s well short of the hopes of many, including most in the fantasy game.

10-team Mixed: Longoria is still at top-10 option at third base, so you can start him without question at third base. He’s not sexy and that’s a good thing. Others will fall all over themselves like Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado and spend their first or second round pick on them. Sit back, wait, and grab Longoria rounds later.

12-team Mixed: If I like him in a 10-team league, of course I feel the same way in a larger league. Longoria is stable. I like that. He’s sturdy. I like that. His less than stellar average or steals totals don’t separate him from others at the position, so no negative there. Counting categories… come on down.

15-team Mixed: A fantastic, over the top option at third base in this format. There simply aren’t that many players with this mix of talent and production, that won’t cost you a top-5 round draft pick. I’ll build in other spots and use Longoria as one of the best “fall back” options at any position.

AL-Only: As we’ve established, the only more consistent 3B since Longoria began his career is Beltre. At worst Longo is in the top-6 at third base, if not slightly higher. Pull the trigger on Longoria. Won’t be sorry you did.

To see where Longoria ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).