Some people are calling for Kyle Schwarber to be the second catcher off the board behind Buster Posey this year. Is that complete insanity or are people well within their right mind to suggest that the young Cubs slugger could be that productive in 2016?

PEDIGREE

In three years at Indiana University, Kyle Schwarber posted OPS marks of .903, 1.103 and 1.123. In his third season he hit .358 with 14 homers and 16 doubles in just 59 games.

Drafted fourth overall in the 2014 Amateur Draft.

He entered the 2015 season as the 19th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, 49th for MLB.com and 77th for Baseball Prospectus.

MINOR LEAGUE PERFORMANCE

2014: Schwarber appeared in 72 games at Low-A, Single-A and High-A ball. Over those 311 plate appearances his slash line was scintillating (.344/.428/.634). He mashed 18 homers with 53 RBI and 55 runs scored. He also hit 18 doubles.

2015: He appeared in 75 games at Double and Triple-A. His slash line was nearly as strong as year-one in the low minors as he hit .323 with a .430 OBP and .591 SLG.

TOTAL: .333/.429/.613 with 34 homers, 102 RBI and 101 runs scored over 147 games.

BIG LEAGUE PERFORMANCE

After he was called up to the big leagues, Schwarber hit just .246 with 77 punch-outs in just 232 at-bats. He also posted a .355 OBP, thanks to 36 walks, and his .487 SLG was more than solid. Schwarber continued to blast with 16 homers, 43 RBI and 52 runs scored in 69 games with the Cubs.

SKILLS

One note before we get to the skills: We are talking small sample sizes with Schwarber; about 200 professional games is all. Keep that in mind as we assess the data.

Schwarber has power and lots of it. The six foot tall, 235 lbs. lefty swinger can pound the ball into orbit. His power is borderline off the charts. He has solid plate control, understands the strike zone, has good plate coverage and is an extremely hard worker. The makeup is off the charts.

Over his first 130 minor league games he posted a .370 BABIP. That’s insanely high despite a rather average 19.9 percent line drive rate. His HR/FB ratio was 23.1 percent. Again, tremendously high, though the power is mouthwatering. As a Cub he posted the following marks: .293 BABIP, 17.3 line drive rate and 24.2 percent HR/FB ratio. Let me speak to HR/FB ratio for a minute.

In 2015 there were only five men in baseball who posted a HR/FB ratio over 22.3 percent. It’s a huge number. Though Schwarber has, in his young career, shown an ability to lift balls into the seats at that rate, it’s tough to fully endorse him as someone who can continually reach that number. Possible? Yes. A lock? Too early to tell, though only two of his home runs last season were under 381 feet. What is easily discernable from his spray chart is the fact that if he hits a ground ball he’s going to pull it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What about that line drive rate of his? To this point of his professional career he’s been unable to reach the league average in the category. That’s a concern. Big flies are great, but you need to hit the ball on a line frequently as well. It’s also more likely than not that Schwarber will be repeating the .293 BABIP he posted last season as opposed to pushing that .370 minor league mark that he tossed up there.

All is not lost, of course. Schwarber walked 36 times last season leading to a 13.2 percent walk rate, well above the league average which is usually around 10 percent. As I noted above, he understands the strike zone. Unfortunately, despite patience and understanding balls and strikes pretty well, he also strikes out a fair amount. Alright, he strikes out too much. In 232 at-bats he whiffed 77 times leading to a 28.2 percent K-rate. Over the course of 550 at-bats that pace would lead to 183 strikeouts. We see guys reaching that mark a lot in this day and age. In fact, three guys reached the rate last season, which is obviously not a good thing. In fact, the three men who struck out that much failed to hit higher than .275: Chris Davis .262, Kris Bryant .275 and Ian Desmond .233. Additionally, Schwarber posted a 14.4 percent swinging strike rate last season, a very high number as well. This is just another reason to think that Schwarber isn’t likely to see a significant batting average increase. However, the nice spread between his average (.246) and OBP (.355) is heartening. If he can raise his batting average just a hair, his OBP could rise to the point we’re talking about a serious on-base threat.

As for pitch types, this is how teams chose to attack Kyle in his rookie season:

Pitch

AB

AVG

SLG

ISO

4-Seam Fastball

84

.250

.536

.286

Sinker

54

.333

.704

.370

Changeup

37

.243

.514

.270

Slider

25

.240

.640

.400

Curve

34

.118

.206

.088

Cutter

13

.308

.539

.231

Split

5

.400

.400

.000

*At-bats that ended on that pitch
** ISO is Isolated Power.

Clearly Schwarber needs to work on hitting the curveball (the soft stuff is challenging). Pitchers noticed this trend as the percentage of fastballs thrown his way dipped by nearly 25 percent over the course of the 2016 season. He also has that traditional loop in his swing which allows him to handle the low ball extremely effectively.

One last point: Schwarber is going to play every day; we all know that. However, he has a lot of work to do against lefties. He was successful against righties with an impressive .278/.396/.557 slash line (“impressive” might not be a strong enough word). His work against lefties, though, left a lot to be desired (.143/.213/.268). His BB/K ratio also dropped all the way to a sickly 0.19 as he struck out an unconscionable 27 times in 56 at-bats. At a minimum, you want nothing to do with Schwarber in DFS when the Cubs face a lefty. If you can massage your lineup on a daily basis in season long you will want to think long and hard about starting him against left-handers.

POSITIONAL ELIGIBILITY

Schwarber appeared in 45 games in the outfield and started there 38 times. He should qualify at that position in each and every league.

Schwarber appeared in 21 games at first base last season. But he may, or may not, qualify there this season in every league. Here’s why: He appeared in 21 games at first, so if your league uses 20 games as the qualifier you are fine. However, check the fine print. Does your league use games played or games started? Schwarber started just 15 games at catcher so he may not qualify there in 2016 and that would be a crushing blow to his fantasy value if that’s the kind of league you are in.

Your league rules matter. Check them closely.

CONCLUSION

How many catcher eligible players hit 20 homers in 2015?
Three: Brian McCann (26), Russell Martin (23) and Salvador Perez (21)

How many catchers drove in 80 runs in 2015?
Two: Posey (95) and McCann (94)

How many catchers scored 70 times in 2015?
Two: Martin (76), Posey (74)

Is it possible that Schwarber could go 20-80-70 in 2016? His pace last season, over 140 games played, would equate to 32 homers, 86 RBI and 104 runs scored. Certainly seems like Schwarber could be one of the top run producers at the backstop spot this season even if he doesn’t approach his 2015 pace. He has the talent. He can blast the ball. He will spend most of his time in the outfield allowing him to rack up more games played than a traditional catcher (spending time in the outfield should also leave him less injury prone than other catcher eligible players). All of that means you can consider Schwarber as a top-5 option at the catcher’s spot. Yep, I just suggested that a guy with a half season of big league experience is worth a top-5 look at his position. Hey, even this old dog can learn some new tricks.