The last installment of this series generated some comments, but I am going to head back to realm of starting pitching for this Thursday edition. There are still useful options vis a vis starting pitchers in the later rounds in drafts, at least according to their ADPs. Not that I always agree with the average approach when designing your pitching staff. Take a chance on some of these late round options and shake things up a bit. If they do not work out, then drop them and grab some streaming options, which I will start to write about come April.

To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.

Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.

Jake Peavy San Francisco GiantsJake Peavy San Francisco GiantsJake Peavy SF ADP: 329.5

Is it his age that is scaring off fantasy owners? He is going to turn 34 this season. Perhaps his now 90 MPH fastball, or the uninspiring 7.02 K/9 last season, or the weak 2.80 BB/9 in 2014, up from a decent 2.24 in 2013. Whatever the issues, his stock has plummeted, and looking at his projections below, sure, he is not a top pitching option, but he pitches well at home. The Giants like him, having signed him for another two years this past December. He has become a pitcher, relying on his secondary pitches to be effective, and when he pitches as opposed to throws, he is an efficient, effective pitcher. You prolly do not need to draft him this spring, but he should be someone you target off the wire once the season starts. He would be the perfect guy to stream during his home starts.

2015 Projections: 12 Wins/145 K/3.89 ERA/1.27 WHIP over 185 innings

Mike Leake CIN ADP: 330.2

Leake gets a bump up in the Reds’ rotation to start the season, with Homer Bailey not a sure thing to be ready for Opening Day (likely going to start the season on the DL),Mike Leake Cincinnati Reds and is slotting in as the No. 2 starter. Leake is not overpowering and his strikeout rate of 6.89 K/9 reflects that, but he has good control and is able to make hitters drive the ball into the ground, with a superb 2.29 GB/FB ratio. He may have been just a titch lucky last season, as his FIP of 3.95 was .25 over his actual ERA, but he also posted an average strand rate and a slightly elevated BABIP (73.4% and ,306 respectively) which do not scream regression. I am not saying make a point to draft him, just keep him in mind in deeper leagues. Oh, and because of his ground ball inducing tendencies, his home park does not hurt him drastically; in fact, he gave up more than twice as many homers on the road as in the Great American Ballpark last season (16 as opposed to 7 at home). So do not be afraid to stream him at home.

2015 Projections: 11 Wins/135 K/3.95 ERA/1.29 WHIP over 195 innings

Matt Garza MIL ADP: 332.1

Garza is in the second year of a four-year contract he signed in January, 2014, and he pitched well for Milwaukee after starting off slowly in 2014. His home and road splits showed he liked home cooking more than dining out on the road, but over his last 17 games he was very good wherever he pitched, posting a 2.80 ERA in his last 17 starts. He throws a good 92-93 MPH fastball, and does not yield a ton of long balls, his HR/9 ratio in 2014 sitting at 0.7. You might want to adjust for some regression in 2015, as his BABIP and strand rates last season were both below league average, coming in at .281 and 70.2% respectively. Like the guy above, he is slated to be the No. 2 starter to begin the season in Milwaukee, and really has little competition to push him further down in the rotation, although Jimmy Nelson and Mike Fiers have potential to shine in 2015. The peripherals should be good enough to justify taking him as a SP6, although I like more Ks from my back of the rotation starters.

2015 Projections: 12 Wins/140 K/3.82 ERA/1.22 WHIP over 180 innings

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CC Sabathia NYY ADP: 334.3

Last season was a lost year for the formerly extremely durable starter, where he only started eight games for the Yankees. A knee injury ended his season, thankfully for hisCC Sabathia New York Yankees owners, as he posted an awful 5.28 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the limited 46 innings he tossed in 2014. He also yielded an astounding 10 home runs over that short active period. In his first action in spring, he did manage to throw his fastball at 90 MPH, which is a good sign as well as an indication that his decreasing velocity may have been due to his knee issues. I am not going to talk about his ratios from 2014, as the sample size bothers me. What is much more important is to watch how he performs this spring, to see if his velocity is consistent and if he can work significant innings as he moves through the games in Florida. The Yankees are counting on a rebound year, but I would urge caution. Do not draft Sabathia with an expectation that his prior dominance is going to return. Instead, take him late if you want to gamble on decent but not great season. Or let someone else in your league take the risk and grab one of the other guys profiled in this article.

2015 Projections: 10 Wins/145 K/4.04 ERA/1.31 WHIP over 150 innings

Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. Also, if there is interest in later round middle relievers, I would be glad to include those pitchers in future articles as well. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.