UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Playbook: MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot takes place this Saturday live from the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00PM EST on ESPN2, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN.
The Main Event features former two future title challengers in the local New Jersey fighter Erin Blanchfield taking on Manot Fiorot in a classic wrestler vs. striker matchup. The co-main event faces off with the action-packed Vincente Luque against the 2020 Knockout of the Year winner Joaquin Buckley.
Check out all of my latest UFC DFS picks, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. As always, feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some top UFC Fight Night DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Low | -192/+160 | 140./380. |
| The Main Event this week gives us a #1 Contender matchup of two top woman who have completely different styles. Blanchfield, the New Jersey native, is going to be looking to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible in order to use her superior submission skills to get the win. Fiorot is the much better striker of the two, and while she has gone to decision before, she hasn't had to deal with the pace that Blanchfield puts out there. Blanchfield is ten years younger than Fiorot, so this is Fiorot's best chance to get the belt because in a few years it really looks like Blanchfield is going to reign over this division. I think Blanchfield gets it done by submission, but if she can't get the fight to the ground Fiorot is going to look like she should have been -500. Fiorot doesn't throw a ton of volume, but at $7400 she likely makes the optimal lineup even in a decision win where she scores 80 pts. I'm picking Blanchfield but both of these fighters are in play for DraftKings. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Julio Arce | 9500 | Herbert Burns | Somewhat-Safe | -360 | -150 |
| Arce missed weight, but he's facing a fighter with arguably the worst gas tank in the UFC. Arce is miles ahead on the feet, and even if he just gets to Round 2, he should be able to dominate this fight from that point forward. The top end of this card is littered with untrustworthy fighters, and although Arce missed weight, I trust him to outclass Burns, the question is will he score enough to pay off $9500 which I think he does. I'll have him in about 25% of my lineups. | |||||
| Bruno Silva | 9300 | Chris Weidman | Somewhat-Safe | -238 | -125 |
| As much as I hate to say it, I think that Chris Weidman is washed. Silva has more than enough power to KO Weidman and as long as he can keep the fight standing he should get it done. I hate picking against Weidman, so I'll probably try to bet on him anyway for old time sakes at +800 by submission or +500 by decision, but 50% of the time Silva brutally KOs him. | |||||
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 9200 | Sedriques Dumas | Somewhat-Safe | -218 | -165 |
| Ruziboev had a massive Round 1 KO win in his UFC debut, and Dumas isn't much of a threat to finish the fight, so I expect Ruziboev to control this fight early. Ruziboev doesn't have much cardio so if this gets out of the first round it could get close, but when I'm paying up for a 9k+ fighter I want them to have a clear path to 100+ pts and Ruziboev is +120 on some books to win in Round 1 which shows just how high his ceiling is. | |||||
| Caolan Loughran | 9400 | Angel Pacheco | Moderate | -380 | -135 |
| Pacheco went to war with Danny Silva on Dana White's Contender Series, and we just saw Silva win his UFC debut so he could be a problem if this fight stays in space. Loughran should be able to outmuscle him and get some takedowns, but Pacheco has never been finished so he may have to win this by decision, and if that is the case it'll be hard for him to outscore some of these other high-end guys if they win in Round 1. | |||||
| Jamall Emmers | 8900 | Nate Landwehr | Moderate | -185 | 215. |
| Emmers is someone I normally avoid due to his low volume, but Landwehr is going to push him to do more than he is used to. Emmers is talented enough to beat fringe top 15 fighters in this division and almost scored a win over Giga Chikadze in his debut, but he also has an extremely low fighting IQ. If this was a video game it feels like Emmers could spam takedowns and control this fight, but I don't trust him to actually do what is expected. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ibo Aslan | 8300 | Anton Turkalj | Moderate | -130 | -105 |
| Aslan lost his first fight against Turkalj on the regional scene, but he dominated the early parts of that fight. I normally side with the fighter who won the first fight if there is a rematch, but when one fighter had such a clear advantage when they were both fresh, I have to side with him to manage his cardio better and win the fight. | |||||
| Chidi Njokuani | 8600 | Rhys McKee | Moderate | -142 | -105 |
| Chidi is moving down to 170lbs for the first time in 8 years, and that is going to cause massive issues on his already questionable gas tank. With that said he is also going to be massive for this division and has the power to KO McKee in Round 1. This fight is very likely to end in the first two rounds, so I'll be playing both sides of this fight, but I think Chidi is going to actually be the contrarian play from this fight as McKee is great odds value for only $7600. | |||||
| Joaquin Buckley | 8000 | Vicente Luque | Somewhat-Risky | -108 | 225. |
| Buckley is someone I always think is older than he is because this is already going to be his 12th UFC fight and he isn't even 30 years old. He has the power advantage, and if this fight was 3 years ago, I would bet Luque to dominate him, but I think unfortunately Luque is slowing down, and Buckley is getting better. Buckley is only going to land 60 strikes as a ceiling but multiple knockdowns, a takedown or two, and a finish are all in play for him. | |||||
| Loopy Godinez | 8700 | Virna Jandiroba | Somewhat-Risky | -230 | 450. |
| Loppy is the much better striker, and she should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. I think Virna is tough enough to not get finished, and with Virna's submission skills I think Loopy is going to just try to keep this striking. I think she wins, but she probably only scores somewhere in the range of 80 points. | |||||
| Melissa Gatto | 8500 | Viktoriia Dudakova | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | 250. |
| Gatto is the better wrestler but similar to Godinez I think she is going to struggle to put up a GPP winning score. She should win the fight, and she is more likely to win get the finish than Godinez, but I still don't love her for her price. | |||||
| Connor Matthews | 7800 | Dennis Buzukja | Somewhat-Risky | 102 | 275. |
| I'm over the Dennis Buzukja experience so I'm going with Matthews in what should be a close fight. Woodson was able to dominate Buzukja by taking him down and Matthews showed in his last fight that he could get takedowns so that would be a good path for him to go back to. This is probably a fight where one guy lands 70 strikes, one lands 90 and whoever wins the bigger moments gets the fight, but I think Matthews is going to show more urgency and get it done. | |||||
| Anton Turkalj | 7900 | Ibo Aslan | Risky | 110 | 180. |
| Turkalj is probably going to get beat up early on, but he does have decent takedowns and if Ibo tires again, he'll be able to use that wrestling. He's still worth a play in some lineups if you want to sweat through the first round and hope Ibo tires, but it is going to be a tough few minute to start this fight. He has shown he can rack up 5+ takedowns in multiple fights and if that happens here, he probably breaks the slate. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rhys McKee | 7600 | Chidi Njokuani | Somewhat-Risky | 120 | 175. |
| McKee is giving up power, but he has an incredible chin and outside of getting clobbered by Chimaev in Round 1 he has shown he can go to war with anyone. If he survives the early power his mix of cardio and volume are going to really get to Chidi, and I expect a Round 2 or 3 KO. | |||||
| Virna Jandiroba | 7500 | Loopy Godinez | Somewhat-Risky | 195 | 500. |
| Virna is live for a submission here, and if her wrestling was good at all I would be picking her straight up. I think she probably lands 70-80 strikes with some control time so she has a decent floor, and if she can get an early takedown the submission win is possible, but it'll be hard for her to get. | |||||
| Andre Petroski | 7200 | Jacob Malkoun | Risky | 185 | 350. |
| Petroski is a front runner, so he has a lot of inside the distance win equity which is great at $7200. It's hard to see him win the fight and not make the optimal lineup since he almost always wins the early part of fights, so I'll have him in 25%-35% of my lineups. | |||||
| Nate Landwehr | 7300 | Jamall Emmers | Risky | 154 | 350. |
| Landwehr pushes a relentless pace and Emmers is someone who hasn't been in many high paced wars so there is a chance that Landwehr's pressure breaks him. I'm not confident in anything Landwehr does, but he has more volume than Jamall so he can win rounds as long as he avoids the takedowns and the big shots. | |||||
| Sedriques Dumas | 7000 | Nursulton Ruziboev | Risky | 180 | 300. |
| Dumas is probably going to be popular this week, but he hasn't been much of a finisher. He probably takes over this fight once Round 2 starts, and at $7000 any win is enough to get on the optimal lineup, so he is definitely in play. I don't think he has as high of a ceiling as Rhys or Petroski, but he can win this fight and hopefully get a takedown or two late to boost is score. | |||||
| Angel Pacheco | 6800 | Caolan Loughran | Risky | 300 | 650. |
| Pacheco landed nearly 200 significant strikes in his contender series debut so while I don't rate him very high, he showed he can go to war and take a beating. He is giving up a lot of strength here, but he should be able to keep pace striking on the feet. He has a low chance to win, but if he does it is probably through a lot of striking and he scores well. | |||||
| Herbert Burns | 6700 | Julio Arce | Risky | 295 | 475. |
| Burns is live for the Round 1 submission, but I don't think he has much in the tank after that. I think he gets dominated but his one way to win is huge for DraftKings, so he is tough to look past. He is scoring either 100 or probably less than 20. | |||||
| Kyle Nelson | 7100 | Bill Algeo | Risky | 200 | 700. |
| Nelson slows the pace of fights to almost a crawl, and while he does have a chance to win, he feels like he needs everyone else around him to | |||||
Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Buckley, Matthews, McKee, Fiorot
Blanchfield vs. Fiorot UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats
Erin Blanchfield | vs. | Manon Fiorot |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | 160 |
Vicente Luque | vs. | Joaquin Buckley |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 22-9-1 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 12 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-112 | Vegas Odds | -108 |
Chris Weidman | vs. | Bruno Silva |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 15-7-0 | Record | Record: 23-10-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 20 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
195 | Vegas Odds | -238 |
Nursulton Ruziboev | vs. | Sedriques Dumas |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 33-8-2 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 4 |
20 | Subs | 2 |
-218 | Vegas Odds | 180 |
Bill Algeo | vs. | Kyle Nelson |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 18-7-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-1 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
7 | Subs | 4 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | 200 |
0 | ||
Chidi Njokuani | vs. | Rhys McKee |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 22-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-5-1 |
14 | Knockouts | 10 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
Nate Landwehr | vs. | Jamall Emmers |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-7-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 12 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
154 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
Virna Jandiroba | vs. | Loopy Godinez |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 19-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 1 |
13 | Subs | 2 |
195 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
Julio Arce | vs. | Herbert Burns |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | 6700 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 1 |
5 | Subs | 8 |
-360 | Vegas Odds | 295 |
Dennis Buzukja | vs. | Connor Matthews |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-122 | Vegas Odds | 102 |
Ibo Aslan | vs. | Anton Turkalj |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Viktoriia Dudakova | vs. | Melissa Gatto |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-2 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
Andre Petroski | vs. | Jacob Malkoun |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Angel Pacheco | vs. | Caolan Loughran |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -380 |