UFC 327 DFS Picks & Lineups: Procházka vs. Ulberg Cheat Sheet, 4/11
UFC 327: Procházka vs Ulberg takes place this Saturday from Miami, Florida. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:30PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 9:00PM on Paramount+. Jiri is looking to finally recapture gold after failing to take the belt away from Alex Pereira, while Carlos Ulberg looks to bring the title back home to New Zealand and be the third recent champion from City Kickboxing. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!fight
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Low | -110/ -110 | 120.0/150.0 |
The Light Heavyweight Title is on the line after Alex Pereira moved up to Heavyweight, and this fight should be one that doesn't reach the judges’ scorecards. Jiri is unorthodox and tough to predict, while Ulberg is a more polished striker. Both of these men are finishers, and this feels like the kind of fight where Ulberg controls the early part, and Jiri turns it on after he survives the first round or two. I'm leaning toward Jiri to get the KO due to his experience, but I'm making multiple lineups this week on DraftKings,, so I expect to see either one of them played in about 75% of my lineups. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Aaron Pico | 9200 | Patricio Pitbull | Somewhat-Safe | -350 | 130.0 |
This week is much different than previous cards where Aaron Pico is the highest priced fighter at only $9200 and -350. Pico is the better wrestler and all-around better fighter, but his one issue is his chin. I don't think that at his age, Pitbull will be able to land cleanly, so I'm leaning towards Pico winning the fight and racking up a bunch of takedowns. | |||||
Kelvin Gastelum | 9000 | Vicente Luque | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | 110.0 |
I never play Gastelum on DK because he doesn't wrestle and he doesn't finish anyone,,, but this version of Luque isn't what it once was. Luque went from being one of the most durable fighters on the roster to someone that looks like they should start thinking about retirement if he wants to preserve his health. KG has quick hands and eventually is going to land on the chin; at that point, the fight is probably going to be over. | |||||
Charles Radtke | 8800 | Francisco Prado | Somewhat-Safe | -175 | 200.0 |
Radtke has a lot of power, and outside of major step ups in competition against fighters like Carlos Prates, he has looked decent. The high-priced range is only 5 fighters this week, and normally a -175 wouldn't come anywhere near the "expensive" tier, but all the fights this week are very competitive. Radtke showed in his last fight that he can wrestle a little bit, so he should mix his skills this week and find a victory by either late stoppage or decision. | |||||
Chris Padilla | 8700 | MarQuel Mederos | Moderate | -163 | +200 |
I'm a big fan of Chris Padilla's skillset and the way he can mix up his striking, but this is a matchup of two fighters who are 4-0 in the UFC, so it will be close. Padilla has fought the slightly better competition, but the biggest advantage this week is that he has five inches in reach over Mederos. I don't think this one comes with an early finish but I see Padilla getting his hand raised. | |||||
Mateusz Gamrot | 8600 | Esteban Ribovics | Moderate | -188 | 400.0 |
I normally include $8600 in the mid-range, but there aren't anymore "expensive" fighters that I like. Gamrot does one thing, wrestling, and he does it really well. He isn't going to land 100 significant strikes, but landing 5+ takedowns with 10+ minutes of control time in a decision is on the table, and he'll likely need that much control time if he doesn't want to get knocked out. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tatiana Suarez | 8500 | Loopy Godinez | Moderate | -150 | 350.0 |
All of these fights are razor close so I'm picking more for upside here. Suarez has some of the best submission and wrestling for the division, but her prime is past her. She has become someone who needs to get the early finish, or she will fade over the second half of the fight. With that said, I'll be betting Suarez by R1 submission, and I figure about 25% of the time she is going to score enough to be on the optimal lineup with that early finish. | |||||
Dominick Reyes | 8300 | Johnny Walker | Moderate | -138 | -105. |
This fight is going to end early, and someone is going to score well. I lean towards Reyes for the slightly better chin, but both of these guys hit hard, and both of them can find the finish early. Reyes seems to be making improvements after a losing streak and losing a title fight to Jon Jones, so I'll back him this week. | |||||
Nate Landwehr | 8300 | Cub Swanson | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | 200.0 |
Swanson is 42 years old, but Nate is just as old in terms of fight years. This is another tight fight where I am leaning towards the younger, slightly more durable fighter, but both of these men still hit hard. Nate needs to survive some big shots early, but as this drags out into a dog fight, he will be the one taking over. | |||||
Randy Brown | 8400 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | 300.0 |
I don't love this fight for DK because most of the fights in this range have more upside. I lean Randy because he has similar size to Kevin but takes each fight more seriously. Kevin is suffering from something a lot of fighters on this card are suffering with. Also, he was once one of the most durable fighters in the division, but after years of getting damage looks like it is starting to affect him. If someone gets the finish, it'll be Randy. | |||||
Josh Hokit | 7800 | Curtis Blaydes | Somewhat-Risky | 110 | 130.0 |
Hokit has a weird gimmick going, but he pushes a pace that most Heavyweights can't deal with. He is small for the division, so if Blaydes does get a takedown, he might have trouble getting back up, but lately, Blaydes hasn't been the chain wrestler he once was. If he can land a ton of volume early, he could be able to clip Blaydes and put him away. | |||||
Curtis Blaydes | 8400 | Josh Hokit | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | 210.0 |
Blaydes always has the ability to break a DraftKings slate with his wrestling, but we haven't seen it in years. I don't think he is going to be the guy getting 5+ takedowns anymore, but if the pace of this fight slows down, he may be able to get enough takedowns to score near 100 pts even in a decision. Hokit has also been facing the lowest of the low in the division so while he looked great against them, this is a major step up. | |||||
Loopy Godinez | 7700 | Tatiana Suarez | Risky | 120 | 900.0 |
Godinez won't finish this fight, but at $7700, she has a real chance to win it and score 70+ points if she gets through Round 1. She is the much better striker and showed in her matchups against Dern and Virna that she can scramble on the ground with the best in the division. Her ceiling isn't as high as others in this range, but she has just as good a chance of winning. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Esteban Ribovics | 7600 | Mateusz Gamrot | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 300.0 |
He throws a ton of volume and if this is on the feet he dominates the fight. He needs to avoid getting taken down, and with Gamrot aging I believe he should be able to keep at least 7-8 minutes of the fight standing. | |||||
MarQuel Mederos | 7500 | Chris Padilla | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 400.0 |
These are both good fighters who are undefeated in the UFC. I don't love Mederos volume, but at his price even just a win should be enough to possibly make the optimal lineup.\ | |||||
Paulo Costa | 7300 | Azamat Murzakanov | Risky | 163 | 275.0 |
Costa has been extremely durable in his UFC outside of one fight with Adesanya. He should be able to survive this fight, and out volume Azamat. I'm not sure if he'll win but I believe he does enough to stop Azamat from scoring well. | |||||
Francisco Prado | 7400 | Charles Radtke | Risky | 140 | 175.0 |
Radtke struggles if he gets pressured and Prado is someone who has shown he'll go through a firefight to trade shots. I don't think he has the talent to dominate the fight but he should have some big moments of his own if he can survive the early part of this fight. | |||||
Vicente Luque | 7200 | Kelvin Gastelum | Risky | 200 | 600.0 |
5 years ago, I would take him straight up to win, but this isn't the same Luque. He will need to wrestle to win this fight and KG has notoriously great takedown defense. Eventually I see Luque getting clipped and finished. | |||||
Patricio Pitbull | 7000 | Aaron Pico | Risky | 275 | 350.0 |
Another aging fighter, but he does have the advantage of being more durable than his opponent. Pico has the wrestling to dominate the fight but we also saw recently that one good shot on the chin can end Pico. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Ulberg, Costa, Hokit, Walker, Swanson
Picks and Stats
Jiri Prochazka | vs | Carlos Ulberg |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 32-5-1 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
28 | Knockouts | 8 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Azamat Murzakanov | vs | Paulo Costa |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 16-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 11 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-200 | Vegas Odds | 163 |
Curtis Blaydes | vs | Josh Hokit |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 19-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Dominick Reyes | vs | Johnny Walker |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 22-9-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 16 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Cub Swanson | vs | Nate Landwehr |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 30-14-0 | Record | Record: 18-7-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
100 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
0 | ||
Patricio Pitbull | vs | Aaron Pico |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 37-8-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 7 |
11 | Subs | 4 |
275 | Vegas Odds | -350 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Randy Brown |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 28-15-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-7-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 9 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Mateusz Gamrot | vs | Esteban Ribovics |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 25-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | 150 |
Tatiana Suarez | vs | Loopy Godinez |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
Chris Padilla | vs | MarQuel Mederos |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 0 |
-163 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
Kelvin Gastelum | vs | Vicente Luque |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 21-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-12-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 11 |
5 | Subs | 9 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | 200 |
Charles Radtke | vs | Francisco Prado |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 6 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 140 |