Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

9000/7200

-

Stackability: Low

-285/ -200

450./425.

O'Malley hasn't fought since the rematch, and while I normally would still stay picking Merab this gets a little trickier with the line moving so much. Merab is the DraftKings G.O.A.T and always will be with the volume he puts out but a cheap O'Malley with his only way of winning being the KO is interesting. I'm still picking Merab to get it done here, but an O'Malley KO wouldn't surprise me. O'Malley has reportedly given up partying, masturbating, and isn't even dying his hair for this fight so who knows if this will hurt or help him. 

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Kayla Harrison

9700

Julianna Pena

Somewhat-Safe

-750 

-165 

Having two championship fights on a card normally results in one being in the mid-range but this week you have to pay up for both. Kayla is more powerful and will dominate the early parts of this fight, with her wrestling upside she is a lock if she finishes in R1/R2.

JooSang Yoo

9500

Jeka Saragih

Somewhat-Safe

-600

-165

This feels like a setup fight where Yoo dominates it and gets the early finish or a clear 30-27. I haven't been impressed with Jeka's striking or wrestling so Yoo should get it done early, likely by KO.

Azamat Murzakanov

9600

Brendson Ribeiro

Somewhat-Safe

-625 

-340 

Murzakanov is giving up a ton of reach, but his power makes up for it. If he can get inside Ribeiro's striking, he wins this fight by early KO so his ceiling is high. If this takes place at range he could be in trouble.

Joshua Van

9300

Bruno Silva

Moderate

-650 

130. 

Van is a volume machine, but sometimes he drops the early part of his fights. When playing for upside, someone who can put up 100+ strikes in two rounds is always going to be in play. I'm betting him to win by 3rd Round KO, but if it happens sooner he probably makes the winning lineup.

Quillan Salkilld

9400

Yanal Ashmouz

Moderate

-575 

#N/A

Yanal lets the fight come to him too much instead of dictating where it should take place so I'm expecting Quillan to win this early. It is a rare week where everyone in the expensive tier is close to -500 so there isn't really a drop off as much as most weeks.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Serghei Spivac

8300

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Moderate

-142 

180. 

Mid range is tough this week so I'm starting with an upside play. If Spivac wins this fight it's with takedowns, control time, and maybe a ground and pound or submission. If he losses it's by KO, but I think he gets it done.

Kevin Holland

8800

Vicente Luque

Moderate

-270 

-105 

Holland is a great striker, and Luque is past his prime. If Luque wrestles this could be a close fight but on the feet Holland KOs him in under two rounds.

Patchy Mix

8500

Mario Bautista

Somewhat-Risky

#N/A

180. 

Mix is a former Bellator Champions but this is a tough first test for him in the UFC. His grappling is better than Bautista but on the feet this fight is going to be close. I think Mix does a little more and gets it done.

Khaos Williams

8700

Andreas Gustafsson

Somewhat-Risky

-192 

110

Gustafson is going to look to control the fight against the cage or come down the middle swinging wildly. Khaos would be more comfortable with a brawl than a wrestling match and if that were the case he should win it by KO. If this becomes a fight against the cage he might have a tough time.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

7900

Serghei Spivac

Somewhat-Risky

120 

185. 

Cortes-Acosta throws decent volume for heavyweight, has good takedown defense, and has a good chin. If he wasn't fighting someone who is live or die by the takedown I would be higher on him, but even in a decision win I think he won't score enough to hit optimal. He is KO or bust but is priced that way.

Andreas Gustafsson

7500

Khaos Williams

Somewhat-Risky

160 

275

The mid-range is tough this week with how few fighters are in it, but I think Gustafsson is going to be one of the dogs who gets some ownership. He is reckless in the cage constantly moving forward and his wrestling can score well on DraftKings. He needs to be defensively responsible if he wants to avoid getting KO'd which I don't know if he can do.

Mario Bautista

7700

Patchy Mix

Risky

150 

600. 

Bautista is going to be the flashier striker so if it stays standing he can easily win a decision. Bautista is very well rounded and is a great test for someone making their UFC debut. I expect him to try to keep it on the feet and if he does he is live to win this fight.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mark Choinski

7300

MarQuel Mederos

Somewhat-Risky

170 

400

Choinski is one of the few paydowns this week who isn't in the +400 range so just for that he makes the top of the list. His submission skills give him a high ceiling and while Mederos has never been subbed before, I think if he were to get finished it would be more likely by sub.

Brendson Ribeiro

6600

Azamat Murzakanov

Somewhat-Risky

455 

650. 

A 10 inch reach advantage is massive, and while normally someone with that big of a physical advantage is -300, in this fight we get it at +455. Ribeiro's chin is going to get clipped at some point when Azamat makes his way to the inside, but it all comes down to if it holds up in the exchange. If this fight goes to decision I think Ribeiro wins it by keeping the fight at range and landing more volume.

Bruno Silva

6900

Joshua Van

Risky

470 

750. 

Van drops the first round in a lot of his fights so if Silva can connect early he might be able to steal the fight. Van has a great chin, but there is only so much damage you can take before it eventually cracks, and while I don't know if this Saturday is the day it happens, there is way worse you can do than a dog at $6900 who should be up 1-0 after the first round.

Julianna Pena

6500

Kayla Harrison

Risky

525 

900. 

Pena is unlikely to win the fight but if she does it's probably from surviving the early onslaught and turning up the pressure late. I'll be betting her to win by submission in Round 3/4/5 at +2500 but that is more of a longshot bet than something that happens very often. Since it is a five round fight she could score well even in a loss, but it'll be hard to do if she is on her back for the majority of the first 3 rounds.

Kelvin Gastelum

7000

Joe Pyfer

Risky

300 

600. 

Gastelum has never been KO'd and Pyfer tends to slow as the fight goes on so if this was a five round fight I would be backing Pyfer but with only three rounds to work with I don't think Gastelum will have enough time against a tired Pyfer to get the finish. Gastelum does have some wrestling that he uses from time to time so if he uses that here maybe he can tire Pyfer out sooner and help his DK score.

Ariane da Silva

7100

Wang Cong

Risky

410 

750. 

Da Silva is going to be a behind in the striking, but the biggest indicator of how this fight goes is how Cong reacts to damage. In her UFC career so far she seems to really be impacted by strikes landing on her which for WMMA is not a great sign since there are rarely KO finishes in it. If da Silva lands early she might be able to eventually wear Cong down but Cong is very technical, so it'll be hard for her to catch Cong.

Yanal Ashmouz

6800

Quillan Salkilld

Risky

425 

750

Ashmouz is a big fighter, but he seems complacent in the cage, it almost looks like he doesn't have a gameplan and whatever happens in the cage he just reacts to it. I don't see a clear advantage for him in either wrestling or striking here. I don't love his approach but for the fighters priced below $7200 his opponent is one of the lower-level fighters which adds more variance to the outcome.

Jeka Saragih

6700

JooSang Yoo

Risky

380 

750

I am not a believer in Jeka and think the UFC is using this fight to push a new prospect in Yoo. Jeka doesn't have good skills on the ground and his striking is just okay, but he doesn't really shine anywhere.

Merab Dvalishvili

vs

Sean O'Malley

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record

3

Knockouts

12

1

Subs

1

-285 

Vegas Odds

+230

Julianna Pena

vs

Kayla Harrison

$6,500

DFS Salary

$9,700

Record

3

Knockouts

6

5

Subs

7

525 

Vegas Odds

-750

Kelvin Gastelum

vs

Joe Pyfer

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record

6

Knockouts

9

5

Subs

3

300 

Vegas Odds

-380 

Mario Bautista

vs

Patchy Mix

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

Record

3

Knockouts

2

6

Subs

13

150 

Vegas Odds

-175

Vicente Luque

vs

Kevin Holland

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record

11

Knockouts

14

9

Subs

8

220 

Vegas Odds

-270 

0

Bruno Silva

vs

Joshua Van

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record

6

Knockouts

6

4

Subs

2

470 

Vegas Odds

-650 

Azamat Murzakanov

vs

Brendson Ribeiro

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,600

Record

10

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

7

-625 

Vegas Odds

455 

Serghei Spivac

vs

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record

7

Knockouts

6

8

Subs

1

-142 

Vegas Odds

120 

Khaos Williams

vs

Andreas Gustafsson

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record

8

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

2

-192 

Vegas Odds

160 

Ariane da Silva

vs

Wang Cong

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record

6

Knockouts

1

0

Subs

5

410 

Vegas Odds

-550 

Jeka Saragih

vs

JooSang Yoo

$6,700

DFS Salary

$9,500

Record

6

Knockouts

2

4

Subs

2

380 

Vegas Odds

-600

Quillan Salkilld

vs

Yanal Ashmouz

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record

9

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

1

-575 

Vegas Odds

425 

MarQuel Mederos

vs

Mark Choinski

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record

3

Knockouts

4

3

Subs

2

-205 

Vegas Odds

170