The final ATP Masters 1000 of the season ends with a matchup no one predicted. Arthur Rinderknech and Valentin Vacherot will play for the title in Shanghai, closing out a week that has defied expectations from every angle. Not only are both players unseeded, they are also cousins. They trained together, played college tennis together, and now share the same court with the biggest trophy of their careers on the line.

 

Shanghai Masters Final Prediction For Sunday, 10/12

Rinderknech entered the draw unseeded but confident. He opened with a first-round win over Hamad Medjedovic, who retired early in the second set after winning the opener in a tiebreak. From there, Rinderknech beat Alex Michelsen 6-3, 6-4, then rallied past Alexander Zverev in three sets. He backed that up with a tight straight-sets win over Jiri Lehecka, followed by another straight-set performance against Felix Auger-Aliassime. In the semifinal, he came from a set down again to defeat Daniil Medvedev and reach his first Masters 1000 final.

Vacherot’s story is even more improbable. Ranked outside the top 200, he arrived in Shanghai as a qualifying alternate. He won two three-set battles in qualifying, first outlasting Nishesh Basavareddy and then coming back from a set down to beat Liam Draxl. In the main draw, he defeated Laslo Djere in straight sets, then stunned Alexander Bublik in three. He advanced past Tomas Machac via retirement, then took out Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune in back-to-back three-set battles. In the semifinal, he handled an injured but still dangerous Novak Djokovic in straight sets, controlling the match tactically and holding his nerve in the key moments.

This is the first time the cousins will face each other on the ATP Tour, but the familiarity is unmatched. Both played for Texas A&M University and have spent years training together. That dynamic could create a tighter, more emotionally charged match than most finals at this level.

 

Shanghai Masters Final Free Pick & Best Bet: Rinderknech 2-1 (+240)

The market has labeled Arthur Rinderknech as the favorite, and it is hard to argue with that. He has beaten top-tier competition throughout the week and has a more established ATP resume. He has the bigger serve, a stronger backhand, and more experience in high-stakes matches. But even at his best, he has rarely made it easy.

Rinderknech has dropped sets to both Zverev and Medvedev in this tournament. In both matches, he settled in slowly before taking control with his serve and forehand. He has saved 16 of 18 break points across those two matches, which speaks to how well he plays in pressure moments. Still, the early-set vulnerability has been a pattern.

Vacherot, on the other hand, has played five three-set matches in Shanghai. In four of his wins, he lost the opening set and rallied back. His ability to reset after a slow start and manage tight sets is part of why he is still alive in this tournament. Even against Djokovic, he saved break points and controlled the second set with first-strike tennis when the moment required it.

With both players serving well and neither showing signs of collapsing, the edge leans toward a three-set match. Rinderknech has the better tools, but Vacherot is confident and plays without hesitation. He knows Rinderknech’s tendencies and will not be intimidated by pace or ranking.

Rinderknech -1.5 games is set at -135 and is a fair play. The better play is Rinderknech to win 2-1 at +240. It captures the most likely route for Rinderknech to win, aligns with both players’ current match patterns, and offers significantly more value.

 

How To Watch The Shanghai Masters Final

The Final can be streamed on Tennis TV, Tennis Channel or ATP Tour Live.

2025 Shanghai Masters Final Odds & Betting Lines Via DraftKings

Moneyline:

  • Arthur Rinderknech: -175
  • Valentin Vacherot: +140

Correct Score:

  • Rinderknech 2–0: +150
  • Rinderknech 2–1: +240
  • Vacherot 2–0: +320
  • Vacherot 2–1: +330

Total Games:

  • Over 25.5: -125
  • Under 25.5: -115

Set Spread:

  • Rinderknech -1.5 sets: +150
  • Vacherot +1.5 sets: -215

Game Spread:

  • Rinderknech -1.5 games: -135
  • Vacherot +1.5 games: -110

When Is The Shanghai Masters Final

The final takes place early Sunday morning for viewers in the U.S., beginning at 1:30 AM Pacific and 4:30 AM Eastern.

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