Jannik Sinner will play Learner Tien for the 2025 China Open title in Beijing. Sinner is the clear favorite, while Tien enters his first tour-level championship match after a breakthrough week. The odds are heavily one-sided, so the only real question is whether Tien can extend rallies, hold serve long enough to keep this close, or if Sinner puts the match away in his usual efficient fashion.

 

 

 

China Open Men's Finals Prediction For Wednesday, 10/1

Sinner's route has included some dips but mostly control. He beat Marin Cilic 6-2, 6-2, handled Titouan Atmane 6-4, 5-7, 6-0, took out Fabian Marozsan 6-1, 7-5, and closed Alex de Minaur 6-3, 4-6, 6-2. He dropped two sets this week, but in both cases answered immediately, with a 6-0 against Atmane and a 6-2 to finish de Minaur.

Tien’s run has mixed resilience with fortune. He rallied past Francisco Cerundolo 4-6, 6–3, 6-4, beat Flavio Cobolli 6-3, 6-2, then advanced over Lorenzo Musetti after splitting sets and leading 3-0 in the third when Musetti retired. In the semifinal, he split with Daniil Medvedev 5-7, 7-5 before Medvedev retired prior to the decider. He’s earned his place, but two retirements also kept his workload lighter and left some questions about how his serve holds up under sustained return pressure.

The matchup tilts toward Sinner for two reasons: return posture and rally control. Sinner takes second serves early, sends depth down the middle to neutralize first-ball patterns, and then redirects off the backhand line. On Beijing's medium-fast hard courts, that timing pays off. When Sinner gets one break, his service games move quickly; there’s rarely the kind of deuce grind that pushes a set to 6-4.

From a betting angle, the total is still the cleaner market than the spread. For the Over 18.5 to land, Tien needs at least one 6-4 or a tiebreak, which requires four or five consecutive holds against one of the best returners in the game. Sinner's third-set responses this week suggest he's managing energy well and front-running once he finds the pattern. The likelier script is a straight-sets finish that caps at 18 games or fewer unless Tien strings together a perfect serving stretch.

  • China Open Free Pick & Best Bet: Under 18.5 Games (-115)

 

 

 

How To Watch The China Open Final

You can stream the China Open Men’s Final on Tennis Channel and ESPN+.

2025 China Open Finals Odds & Betting Lines Via DraftKings

  • Moneyline: Sinner -2000 | Tien +1300
  • Spread: Sinner -6.5 (+105) | Tien +6.5 (-150)
  • Total Games: Over 18.5 (-125) | Under 18.5 (-115)

 

 

 

When Is The China Open Finals

  • Date: Wednesday, October 1, 2025
  • Venue: National Tennis Center, Beijing

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