Monkey Knife Fight: Thurs. Night Football Week 1
Steve Pimental breaks down his plays on Monkey Knife Fight for Thursday Night Football Week 1.
The time between Labor Day and the first Sunday of the NFL season always seems to take about a month. Most of my fantasy drafts are over, and even if they’re not, I’ve done so many drafts and tweaked my rankings so many times that I’m basically drafting on autopilot. All I want is to get to the first full day of games, but that seems to take forever. This week, however, I’ve found something to fill that void, and it’s Monkey Knife Fight.
Monkey Knife Fight offers a variety of pick-em style contests that are perfect for a one-game slate like Thursday or Monday night. In each contest, you’re competing against yourself. Choose the correct over/unders, or pick the right players to surpass the needed statistical threshold, and you win. The higher the threshold, the more you win. Each week this NFL season, we will make picks in a variety of contests for the Thursday night games. We will choose different contests each week depending on the matchups, with the goal as always to introduce you to the contests, have lots of fun, and win lots of money.
Allen Robinson only averaged 3.5 receptions against Green Bay this year, but I would take the over on that number. Robinson is another year removed from his torn ACL, and he and Mitchell Trubisky have had another offseason to grow in Matt Nagy’s offense. Robinson could benefit if Trey Burton is out as well.
Davante Adams averaged 7.4 receptions per game last season, and he averaged 6.5 in three games against the Bears. He had 30 percent of Green Bay’s targets last season, and this season will likely be similar.
Aaron Rodgers 271.5 Passing Yards: OVER
The Bears were first in Pass Defense DVOA last season, and Aaron Rodgers still topped 271.5 passing yards in both games against the Bears. If Green Bay’s passing attack improves at all under new head coach Matt LaFleur, Rodgers could go over pretty easily.
Mitchell Trubisky 245.5 Passing Yards: UNDER
While I admit it’s possible Mitchell Trubisky will be much improved in his second year under head coach Matt Nagy, I think a lot of pundits are overrating the likelihood it’ll happen. On the other hand, I do think the Packers defense will be better than in 2018, when it was 28th in DVOA against the pass. As bad as Green Bay’s defense was last year, Mitchell Trubisky still failed to top 235 passing yards in either game against the Packers. Trubisky averaged 230.2 passing yards per game last season, and he only topped 245.5 passing yards in five out of 14 games.
I would be lying if I said I knew how much work David Montgomery would get, but I do think he’s the most likely touchdown maker, and we’re going to need touchdowns if we’re going to get to 46.5 fantasy points. His ability to catch it out of the backfield should help as well. Davante Adams had at least 19 fantasy points in both games against the Bears, which means we’re looking for 27.5 fantasy points from our other two players. Aaron Jones only had four carries against the Bears all season, but he scored nine touchdowns in 12 games, including a run of five consecutive games with a touchdown. If you take out the game against the Bears where he got hurt, Jones averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game last season. Even if Jamaal Williams doesn’t go away, I think we expect Jones to be on the right side of a timeshare in this game, which wasn’t always the case in 2018. I’d be happy with 15.5 fantasy points, but Jones obviously has the potential for much more.