Welcome to another exciting week of Underdog PGA Pick'em, as we head to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, taking place June 5-8. This historic event, one of the PGA Tour’s longest-standing tournaments, is set to showcase a stellar field led by two-time champion Rory McIlroy, alongside other notable names like Ludvig Aberg and defending champion Robert MacIntyre. With a brand-new venue in play, we’re taking a strategic approach to our picks, focusing on players whose skill sets align with the course’s demands. 

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Let’s dive into our picks for this week’s RBC Canadian Open!

 

The Course: TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)

TPC Toronto’s North Course, a 7,389-yard par-70 layout, is hosting the RBC Canadian Open for the first time. Designed by Doug Carrick and renovated by Ian Andrew in 2023, this course features wide fairways (32 acres), minimal water hazards (only three holes), and relatively flat greens, making it a scorable track that favors long hitters and strong iron players. With only four par-3s, twelve par-4s, and two par-5s (the 1st and 18th holes), expect players who excel in driving distance and long-iron approach shots to have an edge. The course’s Bent-Poa turf and moderate rough suggest that precision off the tee is less critical, but bogey avoidance and birdie-making ability will be key to contending for the $9.8 million purse, with $1.764 million going to the winner.

 

Underdog PGA Pick'em - 2025 RBC Canadian Open

Rory McIlroy Underdog RBC Canadian Open Pick – Higher than 5.5 Birdies

Our first pick is a no-brainer: Rory McIlroy, higher than 5.5 birdies. As the +450 outright favorite and World No. 2, McIlroy is tailor-made for this course. His elite driving distance (ranking 3rd in strokes gained: off-the-tee) and exceptional long-iron play make him a perfect fit for TPC Toronto’s lengthy par-70 setup. McIlroy’s history at the RBC Canadian Open is impeccable, with victories in 2019 (Hamilton Golf & CC, -22) and 2022 (St. George’s, -19), along with four top-10 finishes in four starts. Despite a disappointing T47 at the PGA Championship, his three wins this season—including the Masters, completing his career Grand Slam—prove he’s in top form. The wide fairways minimize his occasional driver inaccuracies, and his proficiency in approach play (5th in SG: approach) should generate plenty of birdie opportunities. McIlroy’s love for national opens, as he’s noted multiple times, further boosts his motivation. Expect him to pepper the greens and easily surpass 5.5 birdies on this scorable course.

 

Max Homa Underdog RBC Canadian Open Pick – Higher than 4.5 Birdies

Next, we’re going with a slightly bolder choice: Max Homa, higher than 4.5 birdies. Homa, priced at +6500, has had an inconsistent 2025, with swing changes, new equipment, and coaching adjustments impacting his performance. However, his underlying metrics suggest he’s due for a breakout. Homa’s driving distance remains a strength, and his iron play has been solid, ranking in the top half of the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach over recent events. His putting has also held up, providing a stable foundation. While bogeys have been an issue—preventing top finishes—his recent form shows promise, including a strong showing in U.S. Open Final Qualifying (though he fell short of qualifying). TPC Toronto’s forgiving fairways and flat greens should suit Homa’s game, reducing the impact of errant shots and allowing his birdie-making ability to shine. With a T5 at the PGA Championship and T12 at the Memorial, Homa’s trending in the right direction. This pick hinges on him capitalizing on scoring chances, and at +6500, he’s a high-upside play for a course where he can go low.

 

Ludvig Aberg Underdog RBC Canadian Open Pic – Higher than 2.5 Bogeys

Finally, we’re taking a contrarian stance with Ludvig Aberg, higher than 2.5 bogeys. Aberg, at +1400, is the second favorite, but his 2025 season has been underwhelming since a win at the Genesis Invitational. With only one top-10 and one top-20 in his last seven starts, including three missed cuts and a withdrawal, Aberg’s game is not firing on all cylinders. His irons, typically a strength, have been inconsistent (losing strokes in recent events), and his short game ranks among the weakest in the field, particularly around the greens. At the Memorial, he finished T16 but posted scores of 75, 71, and 77 before a final-round 66, indicating volatility. TPC Toronto’s long par-4s and two 225+ yard par-3s with water in play could expose his weaknesses, especially if his approach play falters. Aberg’s lone RBC Canadian Open appearance in 2023 resulted in a T25, but on a different course. With his focus likely on next week’s U.S. Open at Oakmont, Aberg may struggle to avoid mistakes, making the over 2.5 bogeys a smart play.

 

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