The entirety of the 2025 PGA Tour season culminates this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, for the 2025 TOUR Championship. Every single week, players battled for points to secure their spot not only in this event, but to ensure their tour card and signature event status for 2025, and we get to see the top 30 of the season compete this week for the title of Tour Champion, which has only been held by 15 different players. Will Scottie Scheffler repeat? Will Rory McIlroy secure his third tour championship, or will a new name claim the title?

TOUR Championship 2025 Predictions

Given that this is the 30 best players in the world in 2025, it should be no surprise to hear that any of these players can get hot enough to win this event, even players who just snuck their way in here. We have a very diverse field, with names like Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, and Hideki Matsuyama having 40 or more rounds at East Lake, and newcomers like J.J. Spaun, Andrew Novak, or Jacob Bridgeman debuting here. With a very talented field, let’s take a peek at some of my favorite bets this week. 

 

 

 

TOUR Championship Free Picks Featuring Corey Conners & Rory McIlroy

Russell Henley To Finish Top 10 (+100 at DraftKings)

Henley is not only one of my favorites to finish top 10, but he might be one of my favorites to take the entire event. With this year's change removing the extra strokes given to the top players, this is a more even field than ever before. Henley has finished in the top 10 here in 2 of his 4 starts here, but even when he hasn’t been in the top 10, he’s been extremely close, with finishes of 12th and T14th in his other two appearances.

Henley is a premier ball-striker, ranking 17th amongst all qualified players in 2025 in SG: Ballstriking, but more importantly, he ranks 9th in SG: Approach and 5th in SG: Around-the-Green. Additionally, he outperforms his expected numbers at this venue, leading all players this year in Strokes Gained Versus Expectations with nearly a half stroke gained over the closest player. Henley’s also in strong form entering this event, with 6 straight finishes inside the top 17. When looking at Henley’s overall profile here, I’m all over this play at plus odds.

 

 

 

TOUR Championship One & Done Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

I’m fully aware that Fleetwood is still chasing that ever-elusive first win of his PGA Tour career. However, when you’ve likely already used all of the top names, such as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or Collin Morikawa, Fleetwood is the next name that stands out for me with how well he profiles for this course. Fleetwood is making his 5th start at East Lake, and while the performances haven’t always been great, he’s arguably playing the best golf he has entered this event.

Fleetwood has back-to-back top 5 finishes in the playoffs, and his putter, irons, and driver have been absolutely on fire. In 2025, Fleetwood ranks 3rd in Total Strokes Gained, is 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball-striking, 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 8th in SG: Approach. He’s playing lights out, and his putter can get ungodly hot at any given time. With the changes to East Lake this year, the play on and around the green is going to be even more important, and the approach play will be the differentiator. If he keeps up his recent form here, he may not win, but a high finish is a near lock.

 

 

 

TOUR Championship Long Shot Pick: Chris Gotterup (50/1 at DraftKings)

Gotterup is the antithesis of the previously mentioned players this week. His recent form hasn’t been great, with back-to-back finishes outside the top 30 in the playoffs after an extreme hot streak where he won the Scottish Open before coming in solo 3rd at The Open and a 10th place finish at the 3M Open. Given that he’s also making his debut this week, he will be learning the course on the fly, which is slightly less of a factor given the changes to the course this year. That said, I still really like him this week.

Gotterup doesn’t shine in any statistical category besides off the tee, where he ranks 6th in 2025 in strokes gained. Where he does shine, though, is par 4 scoring, which is going to be crucial this week. Gotterup is bested in par 4 scoring average this week by Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Harry Hall, and Justin Thomas. That’s it. He’s also one of the best all-around scorers, ranking 9th in total scoring average on tour in 2025, and he’s 10th in bogey avoidance. While his approach game isn’t perfect, he still ranks 16th on tour in GIR%, which is going to be huge given the changes to the green complexes this year. He’s also one of the better scramblers on tour this year. Gotterup is going to need a ton to go his way to compete for the title this year, but he’s still my favorite longshot play this week.

 

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