We’re really in the thick of it now folks. As always happens mid season in the NFL, injuries are really starting to take their toll. This year however we have the added bonus of many of those injuries happening to quarterbacks which throws an extra wrinkle on things. And that’s all with six on bye week. Doesn’t make our job there are always opportunities on the main slate so let’s take a look.

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As a reminder, here is how we separate the groups here.  We do it this way so that you have an option no matter how much (or how little) money you have available to spend on tight end.

Top Tier:  the safest and most expensive guys available if you want to pay up

Mid Tier: affordable players that offer the best bang for your buck

Value Tier: the bargain bin players that are risky by nature but can have the huge upside in terms of value created

Fades: The guys we feel are the worst value proposition that you should actively avoid

NFL DFS Week 7 TE Top-Tier Picks

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Travis Kelce is always on option - if you want to pay 16% of your budget. If there money is there then go for it as he has averaged ~25 DK points per game against the Chargers over the last five games, even with Derwin James healthy for some of them. But Andrews is an incredible value this week going up against the Lions he’s 11.5% of your budget on all three platforms and he goes up against the Lions who have been terrible against the tight end. They went out and got CJ Gardner Johnson at safety to fix that problem but CJGJ got hurt pretty quickly and might not play at all this season. Though that hasn’t stopped him from talking trash on Twitter.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

When you log into your DFS accounts and look at the tight ends you are going to notice two things. One, if that Sam LaPorta has a questionable tag. The other is that he faces the “Number 1” defense vs. the TE. That’s going to have folks off him. But here’s the thing. The injury in question is the same calf he played through last week where he crushed. And this top defense vs. tight ends? They haven’t really faced any real challenges. The two teams with decent tight ends they faced so far were the Steelers and Browns but Pat Freiermuth missed that game. And David Njoku actually had his best game of the season against the Ravens catching 6 of 7 targets for 46 yards. He’s essentially 9.5 to 10% of your budget on all platforms so not a bad option. 

NFL DFS Week 7 TE Mid-Tier Picks

Darren Waller, New York Giants

Waller actually isn’t much of a paydown on DraftKings or FanDuel at 10% of your budget but he’s oddly cheap on Yahoo where he’s only $15 or 7.5%. If you play over there at all you have to make a lineup with him. Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Waller is a focal point of the offense playing a ton of snaps and running a lot of routes. Last week he played 71 of 77 snaps. And they went to him with the game on the line not once but TWICE where he was pass interfered with in the endzone. They didn’t call the second one so the game ended on that.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

If you are looking for the “safe” mid range option this week it’s Daid Njoku. Even with a backup QB last week in a low scoring, windy game vs. one of the toughest tight end defenses in San Francisco he got four targets. In fact, he’s had at least four targets in each of his last four games, even the game where he burned his hands and face. Now he gets the Indianapolis Colts which is a great matchup for him at a fairly reasonable price. He’s 7-8% of your budget on all three sites which is great for FanDuel where we rarely get any discounts past the top guys. 

NFL DFS Week 7 TE Value-Tier Picks

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

The Bears have one specific player on their defense that is problematic for the tight end - that’s Eddie Jackson. And, as of Thursday, he has not practiced. We might pivot away from Mayer if Jackson is a go but we have to take advantage of this price before DFS platforms realize that Mayer played 57 snaps to only 24 for Austin Hooper and it’s now his job for the taking. He’s ~5.5 to 6% of your budget on DraftKings and Yahoo - on FanDuel we pay up at tight end because they don’t give us much of a discount. 

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

 Like Michael Mayer, in Week 6 Trey McBride played 44 snaps which was more than Zach Ertz’s 35.  And he hauled in 4 of 5 targets for 62 yards. There’s even an outside chance we see Kyler Murray this week. These are the trends we need to take advantage of early before DFS platforms jack up the price on us. McBride is the bare minimum $10 on Yahoo and at $2,600, he’s $100 over it on DraftKings. Doesn’t get much cheaper. 

NFL DFS Week 7 TE Fades

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Folks are going to see the name brand going against the 30th rank tight end defense and think this is a bargain here. But let’s take a second to think about what we’ve actually seen from Muth so far. Which is almost nothing. And that was with Diontae Johnson who is also returning this week. I’m not saying he won’t have good games but I’m holding off for now until I see what the Return of the Muth looks like. I’m willing to be wrong but would rather not blow up a bunch of lineups if he’s eased back in.

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers

This will be a popular pick which is part of the reason we are fading it. The other is we don’t think the Broncos are as bad as their 32nd ranking vs. the tight end. First off, any time a single team hangs 70 points on you in a game, it’s going to skew the numbers against you. Also, Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell cover the tight end but they both missed that Dolphins game and the Bears game where Cole Kmet scored 2 touchdowns. Logan Thomas scored a touchdown but he only had two catches. And the other big game vs. them was Travis Kelce but he’s Travis Kelce. And Justin Simmons still came out of that game with an interception. With Christian Watson fully back, I’m not sure Musgrave is as trustworthy of an option as he was early on. But we’ll see.


Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!

| NFL DFS Watch List | DFS Playbook | QB Coach | RB Coach | WR Coach | TE Coach | D/ST Coach |