Entering an NFL survivor pool is one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking ways to enjoy the football season, but lasting beyond the first few weeks requires more than just luck—it demands a clear, calculated approach. The best survivor pool strategy isn’t simply about picking the biggest favorite each week; it’s about understanding matchups, managing risk, and planning several weeks ahead. Whether you’re a seasoned player or a newcomer looking to avoid early elimination, identifying the best survivor pool strategy can be the key to outlasting the competition and claiming the prize. In this article, we'll take you through our process to help you make the most sensible picks to advance to the next week.

 

 

 

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy for 2025 NFL Week 4

The best survivor pool strategy for most weeks revolves around "chalky" plays—reliable favorites that are heavily favored but not overexposed in most pools. For NFL Week 4, the premium example is the Buffalo Bills, a massive 15.5-point home favorite over the New Orleans Saints, who just got throttled by the Seattle Seahawks, our survivor pick from last week. But as our friends over at Pool Genius point out, the Bills are also a 79-percent favorite at home against New England in Week 5, with several other matchups later in the season where their win probability tops 75-percent. If you have multiple picks in your pool, then yes, taking the Bills with one of them, hopefully, locks you in. If you only have one pick, it might be better to hold Buffalo and explore other options.

Dominate Your Survivor Pool with Pool Genius

If you read last week’s article, you got a great introduction to Pool Genius and everything they have to offer. If this is your first time hearing about them, please allow me to show you the way, because they have some exciting tools to help you make the right picks. What happens is, you load in all the information about your pool – how many total participants, cost per entry, specific rules to your pool regarding things like repeat picks or buybacks, and, since we are already here in Week 4, who you’ve taken so far. From there, they analyze all the data and make suggestions as to who to take, so it is a VERY personalized service.

To continue guiding you, I am using all the tools Pool Genius has to offer and making one of my picks based solely on their data and recommendations. Last week we used Seattle based on their recommendations and advanced. I have now used Washington, Dallas, and Seattle. Now the question I have to ask myself is this: “If I don’t take Buffalo, who am I going to take this week?”

My Pool Genius recommendations are as follows:

  1. Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans, 15% popularity)
  2. Denver Broncos (vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 9% popularity)
  3. Buffalo Bills (vs. New Orleans, 27% popularity)

Because this isn’t my only pick in this pool, I figured it would also be helpful to note that they also recommended the following two teams for my other picks:

  1. Detroit Lions (vs. Cleveland Browns, 23% popularity)
  2. Los Angeles Chargers (at New York Giants, 9% popularity)

Obviously, there is fear in the Cleveland Browns screwing us over two weeks in a row, and then, of course, the Chargers are riding high and traveling across the country. The Giants are throwing Jaxson Dart into the fire, and New York is going to be amped up, so both of these picks give me pause. OK, Detroit doesn’t, but I will have to check the Pool Genius data to see what their Future Value is looking like. For the Chargers, the best survivor pool strategy pushes you away from road teams, another reason the Green Bay Packers were probably a mistake last week.

Now, before I get to my favorite picks to use, I do want to remind you that Pool Genius is a paid service, but for the Fantasy Alarm #Family, they have some discounts available to you. The data and service they provide have been fantastic thus far, and I feel confident using their suggestions. 

Now let’s get to my three favorite options for NFL Week 4:

 

 

 

NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills: Pick Buffalo Bills

This is probably the biggest no-brainer on the slate. The Bills are at home, and the offense is firing on all cylinders with Josh Allen dialed into the passing game and James Cook dominating on the ground. There are a variety of weapons available, and given the point spread, it sounds like this should be a fairly easy game. They are going to be a very popular pick, so there’s no harm in saving them for the future if you like, but again, if you have multiple picks, it’s always nice to lock in a high-probability for advancement into next week.

The Saints are just a disaster of a team right now. Sure, you could point to Alvin Kamara being a seasoned veteran, and the Bills have allowed the most rushing yards per game through the first three weeks, but it takes more than just one good running back to win a game. With Spencer Rattler under center and a likely need to throw the football, New Orleans’ chances are very, very slim.

Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions: Pick Detroit Lions

Like our friends over at Pool Genius have said, the Lions are also going to be a very popular pick this week. But Detroit, a 10-point favorite, is also well-positioned with strong rest-of-season value. They’ll offer multiple 70-percent favored matchups down the line. You have to ask yourself if you want to invest now or save them for later. The Browns have a great run defense, but Jared Goff playing at home has always been a big deal. His weaponry is first-rate, and even if they do have great future value, they make a whole lot of sense, especially if you also have the Bills available.

Cleveland just doesn’t have the horses to keep pace, offensively. Their defense is strong, but they’re going to need to put points on the board, and the Lions’ defense has plenty of bite. Their front-seven is going to make things very difficult for Joe Flacco in this one, and while I won’t necessarily take the Lions to cover a double-digit spread, I do like their chances of just winning outright.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos: Pick Denver Broncos

I’m going with this game over picking the Houston Texans because I’m very concerned with how Nick Caley is running the Texans' offense. I’m not ready to trust them. I get that taking Denver is less popular because everyone fears Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, even if it is Jake Browning under center. But the Denver corners are their strong suit on defense, and if the pass-rush is effective, Browning can chuck the football all he wants; time will run out for the receivers to finish their routes.

Denver’s offense matches up significantly better against a Bengals defense that continues to struggle. Bo Nix has strong receivers in Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin, and they’re also getting back tight end Evan Engram. And let’s not forget we have a resurgent J.K. Dobbins going up against a soft run defense that has allowed 120 rushing yards per game and three rushing touchdowns this season.

These are the picks in the order I prefer. Best of luck to you all in your survivor pool contests.