We wrap up the first Sunday of the 2025 NFL season with a potential AFC Championship preview as the Baltimore Ravens head to upstate New York to visit the Buffalo Bills. This matchup features the last two NFL MVP winners in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, so this game offers plenty of offensive upside. The Sunday Night Football DFS slate closes out the first loaded Sunday of the NFL season so let’s take a look at our Ravens vs. Bills DFS picks to close out the weekend with a little more green!

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Bills DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 9/7

The NFL has delivered some great matchups in primetime to kick off Week 1 and we still have the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings dialed up for Monday Night Football. But Sunday night in primetime we get to relish in a competitive matchup between the Ravens and Bills.

There’s almost a certain level of comfort with these two organizations. There really haven’t been too many significant changes to the rosters or coaching staffs. The Ravens still have Lamar Jackson under center and Derrick Henry returns for his second season with Baltimore. Jackson’s weapons still include Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and others. Josh Allen still has James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman. Joshua Palmer does enter the wide receiver room for Buffalo but for the most part we’re looking at the same stars for both teams. Even the coaching staffs haven’t changed too much so we don’t need to dwell or highlight too many offseason changes.

These two teams met twice last year. In the first meeting in Week 4, the Ravens destroyed the Bills 35-10. And you could just as easily revise that sentence and say that Derrick Henry single-handedly destroyed the Bills. Henry rushed for 199 yards and a score while adding a second touchdown through the air.

When these teams met in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the Bills got their revenge by winning 27-25 in a game remembered for Mark Andrews dropping the game-tying two-point conversion that would send the Bills to the AFC Championship Game. According to Fade The Noise’s DVOA Projections, these two teams have a combined 35.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. So we have plenty of star players on this slate as these two teams can hopefully deliver more fireworks ahead of potentially another playoff matchup in January. Let’s crack into the top Sunday Night Football DFS picks, shall we?

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Bills SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Ravens -1.5 (-110)
    • Bills +1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-125)
    • Bills (+105)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 50.5 (-112)
    • Under 50.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Ravens -1.5 (-108)
    • Bills +1.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-118)
    • Bills (+100)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 50.5 (-115)
    • Under 50.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Ravens vs. Bills SNF, September 7th

There’s no rain in the forecast for Buffalo Sunday night. It’ll be a bit cooler with temperatures around 60 degrees at kickoff and they’ll steadily drop by a degree every hour. Winds aren’t expected to exceed 10 miles per hour. Is it a bit of a chilly night? Sure, but it’s still perfect football weather for both teams.

 

Ravens vs. Bills Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 1

The Bills saw a few of their wide receivers pop up on the injury report this week. Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, and Khalil Shakir all appeared in some capacity, but they practiced in full on Friday and are expected to play in this matchup. Defensive back Tre’Davious White is doubtful with a groin injury and the Bills will not have kicker Tyler Bass, as he was placed on IR late in the week. Matt Prater will assume the role for our SNF DFS picks so there goes the dream of seeing Ray Davis kick field goals in an actual football game.

Newly acquired defensive back, Jaire Alexander, appeared on Baltimore’s injury report this past week. He’s been dealing with a knee injury, but he did participate in full during Friday’s practice session. The only two players that have been officially ruled out for Sunday night are Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard. With Likely we’re losing an affordable pass-catching option for Lamar Jackson who popped for some big games last year so his absence may open the door for another value option.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,600

Allen tops the player pool on both DraftKings and FanDuel as the most expensive player. The ceiling is high and it’s very easy to build plenty of 2:4, 3:3, or 4:2 builds with Allen at Captain. Even a 1:5 build is rather contrarian where you’d play Allen at Captain and then flex five Ravens.

Pricing is relatively soft as it’s early in the year. The matchup is tough but when we previously looked at the “ceiling” for players in other Showdown Playbooks, we were pretty satisfied with 25-30 points. But Allen had two monstrous games in 2024. In Weeks 14 and 15 he combined for 704 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, 150 rushing yards, and five touchdowns on the ground. He also got the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings in both those games against the Rams and Lions. In those two games on DK, he combined for 99.16 fantasy points.

That’s a legendary ceiling level but you’ll need to pair him properly with the correct receiver. In this playoff matchup last year, Allen accounted for 237 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns through the air. He added 39 rushing yards and fumbled three times but none of the three were recovered by Baltimore. The matchup is tough but we know Allen has break-the-slate upside.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $13,200

I am trying to be more mindful of how often I play quarterbacks at Captain in NFL DFS Showdown contests because they only landed in the top 1% of lineups last year on about 13% of the featured slates. But we have a game with two quarterbacks who possess the ability to generate production with their legs and that will raise their ceiling.

Last year, Jackson became the only quarterback in NFL history to pass for 4,000+ yards, 40+ touchdowns, and rush for 800+ yards as well. He had four games last year with 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings so he offers the ceiling we’re looking for on a slate like this.

I highly suggest you check out this tweet from FTN Fantasy because it really visualizes how good these two quarterbacks are whether they’re facing pressure or not. Both are in their own tier but Lamar was actually better than Allen last year when facing pressure.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Jackson led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback last season at 0.70 FP/DB while Allen was at 0.63 FP/DB. For context, the Ravens ranked 9th in play action dropback rank while Buffalo ranked 24th. Game script doesn’t matter to either QB in this matchup. Let’s hope we get a shootout and that these two deliver the goods.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,800

This is such a weird slate in the sense that we potentially have the three most expensive players on each site that could each garner 20% ownership at Captain. I’m just saying that it could happen, not that it definitely will. It wouldn’t surprise me if Allen, Jackson, and Henry combined for 50% of the Captain/MVP exposure in tournament contests.

Henry went off against the Bills in Week 4 last year with a pair of touchdowns and over 200 total yards of offense. In the rematch in the playoffs, Henry surprisingly only touched the ball 16 times but ran for 84 yards and a touchdown.

If you’ve been on social media this week you’ve seen some outrageous Derrick Henry stats. He’s been in the NFL nine years and he’s still 700 yards shy of passing his rushing total from high school. In his last 74 games in the NFL, he’s rushed for 100+ yards in half of them.

The Bills interior line will be composed of Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, TJ Sanders, and Deone Walker. That’s a good group but those are the only four they’re carrying against a good offensive line in addition to containing Henry. Sanders and Walker are also rookies and keeping Henry from hitting his ceiling is no easy task. Henry led the league in 2024 in yards after contact (1,137) and missed tackles forced (81).

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

Before I elaborate on Bateman specifically, I want to acknowledge you can play absolutely anybody in the player pool at Captain. And I know that sounds like a cop out. But remember, the three most expensive players on this slate are going to draw heavy ownership at Captain. If three players are drawing nearly half the exposure at Captain, then almost every other option on the board becomes a leverage play at Captain. So we really don’t see Showdown slates where significant Captain ownership is consolidated to three players.

Now there are some warts with Bateman. He doesn’t draw the target share that Zay Flowers does (more on him shortly). And Bateman’s never logged a season with 1,000+ receiving yards. But who cares? This is one game and I believe there’s upside.

Lamar Jackson led all quarterbacks in touchdown passes last year on passes that traveled 10+ air yards. Coincidentally enough, Rashod Bateman draws deeper targets. His overall average depth of target (aDOT) was 10.59 yards in 2024. If we examine his aDOT on deep targets (20+ yards), we get 36.7 yards. Bateman caught 11 total touchdowns (including the playoffs) last year so there’s certainly potential for Bateman to find the end zone on a big play so there is upside. Even rostering Bateman at Captain makes it easier to roster the previous three players as Flex options.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,400

I couldn’t find a good place for Cook in this Playbook. He’ll get plenty of opportunities in this game. But remember, he was a bit of a “hold in” at training camp and he signed his extension with the team late in the preseason. So it wasn’t really a full camp. So if there’s a game where we may see a little more of Ray Davis, it could be tonight. I also couldn’t put Cook in the next section because he’s not a mid-priced player. He’s the fourth-most expensive player on the board so he’s too expensive for that section.

Cook had a great season last year on his way to getting that previously mentioned contract extension. Cook scored 21 total touchdowns between the regular season and the playoffs. He rushed for over 1,000 yards and saw some involvement in the passing game as well.

This is a brutal matchup for Cook though. In Week 4 last year, Cook ran the ball nine times for 39 yards and added a reception for nine yards. When these two teams met in the playoffs, Cook ran the ball 17 times for 67 yards and added three receptions for 15 yards. For as many times as Cook scored last year, he failed to find the end zone in two games against Baltimore.

Baltimore was brutal to run on in 2024 (80.9 rushing yards per game allowed) and that should be a trend we see once again this season. Cook’s touchdown equity last year does correlate with his red zone usage because he was heavily involved despite sharing touches with Josh Allen. But for this matchup against a team he struggled against last year, I prefer Cook as a flex play.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $10,000

Flowers had a very strong second season but he was unable to suit up for the playoffs. Across the regular season he had 74 receptions on 116 targets for 1,059 yards and four touchdowns. So again, I like the touchdown equity and upside for Bateman more, but the volume certainly goes more toward Flowers.

And the crazy thing is that Flowers ranked fourth among wide receivers in incomplete throws due to inaccuracy according to Fantasy Points Data. 23 of his targets were off target last year which accounted for roughly 20% of his total targets.

When the ball is in his hands, he’s an exciting player to watch as he can do a lot after the catch. You can play him sparingly at Captain but I prefer him as a flex option. The targets should definitely be there for him as Lamar Jackson’s WR1.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,600

Andrews is another year older but he’s far from old. Andrews turned 30 on Saturday so if you want to buy into the birthday narrative then be my guest.

Isaiah Likely’s status does elevate Andrews a little bit even though he was probably going to see a decent target share to begin with. Over the past two seasons, Likely has missed six games and in those games Andrews averaged five receptions for nearly 65 yards and a touchdown.

Average separation score from Fantasy Points Data is a metric utilized more for receivers but it’s still helpful in assessing a player’s ability to run routes and get open. In 2024, Andrews led all tight ends in average separation score. And remember, he’s also seeking some redemption in Buffalo as this is the likely where he had that devastating two-point conversion drop in the playoffs last season.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $9,400

Shakir is a borderline core play for this slate but he offers a good floor as a flex play. There isn’t a tremendous ceiling with this recommendation. Over the last four years the Bills only have one receiver who has a target share over 18% and that was Shakir last year at 21.2% but Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points Data does suggest that was due to Keon Coleman hurting his wrist late in the season. 

Shakir’s a good flex play and he came on strong in the playoffs with three straight games of six receptions. So that’s a nice floor we’re getting and it’s why I prefer him as a flex play. But he only topped 100 receiving yards in two games last year. And in his career he has just seven touchdowns and five end zone targets. When the Bills get it close to the goal line, he just isn’t as involved as Josh Allen or James Cook.

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $4,800

Joshua Palmer, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $7,600

I’m lumping these two together because they’re similar options and priced vastly different on both sites. Palmer being cheaper on DraftKings, while Keon Coleman is wildly mispriced on FanDuel.

And there is a downside to playing either as well. We just touched on the Bills lacking a true WR1 who can dominate the target share. Among the receivers in Buffalo last year, Shakir led the way with a 21.2% target share while Keon Coleman was at 14.4% and Curtis Samuel was only at 10.5%.

With Coleman and Palmer, we have two vertical threats who will likely line up on the outside. Shakir will probably get more of the reps out of the slot. Joe Brady loves a strong vertical threat. The jury’s still out on Coleman because he’s entering his second season. But bringing Palmer over from the Chargers gives them an additional deep threat for Josh Allen. Palmer has great separation skills and he thrives against man coverage. And he’s still relatively young at just 25 years old. Get some exposure to both as a flex play if you can’t afford Shakir.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $5,000

There isn’t much to go off of with Hopkins on a new team once again. However, there is intrigue with Hopkins at this price tag with the news breaking that the Ravens won’t have Isaiah Likely or Patrick Ricard.

The absence of Likely can lead to more snaps for Hopkins who probably operates as the team’s WR3 for most of the season. Last year he did show flashes even as he’s not the player he used to be. As a value play for this slate he doesn’t need to do very much to hit the optimal lineup but he may be a bit touchdown dependent.

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $3,400

If we include the playoffs, Ray Davis had seven games last season with at least 8.9 fantasy points. Among rookie running backs he had the second-most total touchdowns (six) in 2024 and he did that as a backup.

Earlier we touched on James Cook’s status and availability after not seeing much action in preseason and training camp. Davis may only get a handful of touches and possibly some short yardage work. And the matchup is still as brutal for him as it is for James Cook. 

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

On average we see D/ST’s rostered in about 20% of NFL DFS Showdown lineups. They aren’t nearly as optimal as kickers. So when we have the betting markets setting the over/under at 50.5 points I’m not as excited to get exposure.

I will throw the Baltimore Ravens into some builds because, as we enter the 2025 NFL season, they do still have a very good defense and we can play them with more confidence assuming Jaire Alexander is good to go. I’m actually surprised the Ravens are $600 cheaper than the Bills D/ST on DraftKings. When these teams met in the playoffs, the Ravens allowed 27 points and 273 total yards while recording only one sack. In the first matchup the defense yielded only 10 points and 236 yards of offense while forcing a turnover and three sacks. We should also expect some regression with Buffalo’s ball security. They had 15 fumbles on offense as a team last year, but they only lost two of them.

The Bills D/ST came up big in the playoffs with three takeaways. But that was a game the Ravens probably should’ve won but they underperformed and couldn’t tie the game late. But they open as slight favorites on the road. Both teams do have implied team totals over 24 points. Pricing is aggressive on the D/ST’s so if we think there’s offense in this matchup, we should lean into kickers who appeared in nearly half of the top 1% of NFL DFS Showdown lineups last year. And through the first two primetime Showdown slates, we’ve seen a kicker in each of the first two optimal lineups.

 

 

Player Pool

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