Monday Night Football is here and we get an outstanding game to finish off our Week 5 NFL DFS gameplay. We spent the whole preseason discussing how exciting these AFC West matchups would be and tonight we get Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders. We saw some high-scoring games in the early window on Sunday, but the late games were much more subdued. The hope is that tonight’s games tilts more towards yesterday’s early window and we get some serious DFS Showdown excitement. The Chiefs could make a big statement with a win or the Raiders could really tighten up this division with an upset. Either way, we just want to know who is doing the scoring and who it’s going to take for us to build a winning DFS lineup.
Now before we begin, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Weather: Cloudy with temperatures in the low 70’s w/ winds blowing S at 6 mph
Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR – hamstring (questionable)
- Trey Smith, RG – pectoral (questionable)
- Mike Danna, DL – calf (questionable)
- Harrison Butker, PK – ankle (out)
2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings
Las Vegas Raiders
- vs Pass: 22nd
- vs Run: 16th
Kansas City Chiefs
- vs Pass: 21st
- vs Run: 5th
**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.
Travis Kelce, TE KC – Surprisingly not the most expensive guy on the slate so we’ll take advantage of the discount and lock him up here. The Raiders rank 21st in DVOA against the tight end and have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Kelce has 100-yard efforts in three of his last four against Las Vegas and two touchdowns in his last four against them.
Patrick Mahomes, QB KC – It’ll cost you, but it’s obviously worth it. Over his last five starts against the Raiders, Mahomes has averaged 305.4 passing yards with 2.4 touchdowns per game and has a 106.9 passer rating against them in that span. He’s stayed under the 300-yard mark in each of his last three starts, but we’re digging the 11:2 TD:INT ratio and the 66.4-percent completion rate this season.
Davante Adams, WR LV – Josh McDaniels will do whatever he has to do to move Adams away from L’Jarius Snead, the only defensive back worth his salt in this Chiefs secondary. Keeping him away will open things up for another double-digit target day for Adams who has two 100-yard efforts and three touchdowns on the season. Kansas City ranks 29th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position on the whole.
Mid-Tier DFS Plays
Derek Carr, QB LV – He’s been surprisingly sturdy against the Chiefs over his last five starts against them, posting an average of 273.6 passing yards and two touchdowns per game while posting a 71.5-percent completion rating and a 99.7 passer rating. He’s been forcing the ball to Adams in recent games but will get back Hunter Renfrow finally and still has his usual arsenal. With a projected game total of 52, you know he’s slinging the rock to keep pace with Mahomes.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC – Andy Reid has shown a lot of faith in Edwards-Helaire this season and it’s paying off in the numbers. Despite last week’s 19 carries in a blowout win, he’s never going to be that 20-carry back, but his usage, particularly in the red and green zones has not only been encouraging, but has also resulted in five touchdowns on the year. The Raiders have only allowed 103.3 rushing yards per game this season, but they have allowed five rushing touchdowns this year and give up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the running back position
Darren Waller, TE LV – The Chiefs have done a solid job against tight ends this season, ranking seventh in DVOA and allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to them. But there is a vulnerability over the middle that teams are trying to exploit, sending and average of nine passes for 52 yards per game their way. Waller hasn’t been leaned on as much this year but averages seven targets per game against te Raiders and has found the end zone in two of his last three games against them.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR KC – We’ll have to see what his condition is like in pre-game warm-ups tonight as JuJu has been limited all week with a hamstring issue and remains listed as questionable. Still, he is the most-targeted receiver on this Chiefs team and he can move back and forth between the outside and the slot. We’re still waiting for the breakout game for him, but he’s seen eight targets in three of the four games this season and it is only a matter of time before he scores.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR KC – He’s garnered the second-most targets from Mahomes of all the receivers and is routinely used as the deep threat, as evidenced by the double-digit aDOT in two of the four games this season. The results haven’t exactly been there for MVS, but expect Mahomes to seek him out downfield as his speed will garner him solid separation from both Rock Ya-Sin and Amik Robertson.
Josh Jacobs, RB LV – The Chiefs have been pretty stingy against the run this season, allowing just 65.8 rushing yards per game this season. However, in addition to the two rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed they do give up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. He’s coming off a huge game against Denver, but what’s might be most important to us is that he’s seen 11 targets in the last two games and he’s produced 10 catches for 62 yards. The Chiefs actually rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass plays so the hope is that Jacobs remains a feature in the passing attack.
Hunter Renfrow, WR LV – It’s his first game back since suffering a concussion back in Week 2 so it is difficult to really evaluate Renfrow’s usage. He did see 16 targets through the first two games, so we expect him to remain an active part of the game-plan. As we said before, the Chiefs are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so if Renfrow is good to go, you can expect him to be a solid PPR asset.
Mecole Hardman, WR KC – The Raiders rank 30th in DVOA against slot receivers this season and while Andy Reid continues to move his receivers all over the field, Hardman, who ranks third in targets among wideouts on this team, has lined up out of the slot 45-percent of the time. If that trend continues, we’d like to consider him as a contrarian play with no one even looking at him after seeing just one target in each of his last two games. Tough road, but sometimes you have to go the other way.
Skyy Moore, WR KC – We’d like to think Moore is a bit of a contrarian play as well, but the masses will look at how weird Week 5 was for many unheralded players and then see his four targets last week during the blowout against Tampa Bay. He does profile as a slot-receiver and we know there is a vulnerability there for the Raiders. If you’re setting multiple lineups and are trying to play “guess the Chiefs receiver” this week, then you might want to look his way.
Mack Hollins, WR LV – He actually makes for a favorite contrarian play for me because, with the return of Renfrow, most mainstream players will assume Hollins’ days of strong targets are behind him. However, with the Chiefs defense likely focusing on Adams, Renfrow and Waller, Hollins could sneak in as a deep threat and haul in one or two of those long passes we’ve seen him grab over the past few weeks. If one of them hits for a touchdown, you’re in business.
Jerick McKinnon, RB KC – If this game goes a little sideways for the Chiefs and the Raiders make a little noise early, we could see McKinnon show up more on some third-down work. He’s played almost 50-percent of the snaps through the first three weeks, only yielding time to Pacheco last week in a blow-out. If you think the Raiders surprise the Chiefs, you can save some money and sneak McKinnon into your lineup.
Dart Throw DFS Plays
Brandon Bolden, RB LV – It’s a dart-throw for sure, but one that could have some nice validity for tonight’s action. Again, the Chiefs rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and if the Raiders go into catch-up mode, we are likely to see an increase in snaps and usage for McDaniels’ favorite here in Bolden. You can build a lineup with all three captains from above and use Bolden to squeeze in one more mid-tier player, so it’s worth a shot.
Keelan Cole, WR LV – His snap count has gone up over the last two weeks with Renfrow being out. It seems unlikely that he gets a whole lot of time on the field, but if the Raiders are playing from behind, McDaniels will deploy him in four-receiver, spread-formation set. If he can get a look inside the red zone, we could see a surprise touchdown.
Isiah Pacheco, RB KC – When the Chiefs are ahead and the game is well in-hand, we’ve seen Reid go to Pacheco thanks to his versatility. He’s capable of being that every-down back Reid covets, but he’s still a little too green and will have to continue proving himself. You’ll have to wait for the second half for him, but, if he starts getting snaps in a blowout, he could produce some points.