Welcome to NFL Week 11 where the days and nights can be so brutally cold, you’ll want to grab an extra sweatshirt just for building a DFS Showdown lineup and watching the game. Thursday Night Football opens the week and we’ve got a classic, hard-nosed match-up where Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans head north to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. We are expecting the Titans to roll out their usual run-first game-plan which slows the pace down so whether Rodgers is slinging the rock or not, we aren’t expecting a world of scoring. The weather shouldn’t be much of an issue, save for the cold, so everyone should be in-play for lineup possibilities. The list below with the full breakdown should guide you towards which players will get you over the cash line.
Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but, more often than not, you need to hit on that random dart-throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK. Lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -3.5
Weather: Mostly cloudy w/ temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s; winds blowing W at 5 mph
- Ben Jones, C – concussion (out)
- Randy Bullock, PK – calf (out)
- Jeffrey Simmons, DE – ankle (questionable)
- Bud Dupree, LB – hip (out)
- Amani Hooker, SS – shoulder (out)
- Elijah Molden, DB – groin (questionable)
Green Bay Packers
- Romeo Doubs, WR – ankle (out)
- David Bakhtiari, LT – knee (questionable)
- Elgton Jenkins, LG – knee (questionable)
- De’Vondre Campbell, LB – knee (out)
- Shemar Jean-Charles, CB – ankle (doubtful)
2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings
- vs Pass: 13th
- vs Run: 1st
Green Bay Packers
- vs Pass: 8th
- vs Run: 30th
**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.
Derrick Henry, RB Tennessee Titans
Just because it’s the obvious choice doesn’t mean it’s the wrong one. Yes, Henry will be chalky in DFS Showdown lineups, but considering the Packers ranks 30th in DVOA against the run and are allowing an average of 140.6 rushing yards per game with nine rushing touchdowns on the year, we need to use him as the Titans top offensive asset. Center Ben Jones is out so it may take a little bit to get going, but by the end of the game you should have enough to pay off the salary.
Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers
If the Titans are going to pound it on the ground all game and look to control the clock and the pace of the game, Rodgers is going to try and take over this game. The Titans pass defense has been soft in coverage all year, but they’ve now allowed the third-most passing yards per game (262.7) over their last three and don’t really have the corners to cover even the Packers B-squad of receivers.
Allen Lazard, WR Green Bay Packers
We’re going to let the masses converge on Christian Watson who is coming off a career-best three-touchdown game. We’ll pivot to the less-chalky Lazard who, despite people’s lack of faith, remans the No. 1 receiving target for Rodgers when he is healthy. The shoulder issue has come and gone and it’s time to get back to business. Lazard lines up mostly in the slot and that will match him up with a banged-up Elijah Molden. Expect a strong effort here at home.
Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays
Ryan Tannehill, QB Tennessee Titans
If the Packers switch to more man-coverage and sell out to stop the run, Tannehill is going to have to take it to the air and find his receivers downfield like he did last week against Denver. We don’t expect a world of passing yards, but an efficient outing with multiple touchdown throws would certainly pay off his salary in our lineups. It also doesn’t hurt to know that the Packers, who have been allowing an average of 179.7 passing yards on the year, have now given up 205 passing yards per game. We’ll take a 20-yard average increase for Thursday.
Aaron Jones, RB Green Bay Packers
He’s been leaned on heavily over the last few weeks, ever since Rodgers said they needed to get the ball in his hands more during one of his Pat McAfee Show appearances. He’s got two 100-yard efforts over his last three games with one touchdown. He’s utilized both in the rushing and passing attacks and should continue to be leaned on this week.
Christian Watson, WR Green Bay Packers
Given his three-score game in Week 10, we expect everyone and their grandmother to have Watson in their lineup. We don’t have to put him into the top spot, but we probably want him in our lineups as the Titans rank 30th in DVOA against the opposing No. 2 receiver and are allowing an average of just over 52 receiving yards per game to them. Watson has the speed to stretch the field and beat coverage so expect to see a few deep shots come his way.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR Tennessee Titans
Here’s another guy the masses will flock to after a two-score performance last week. NWI spends most of his time working out of the slot which puts him in a favorable match-up against Keisan Nixon. There is a pretty big physical advantage for NWI in this match-up and, again, should the Packers opt to sell out and stop the run, he’ll find himself in a lot of single-coverage with no safety help. That’s a pretty tasty advantage.
Robert Woods, WR Tennessee Titans
He’s not the receiver he once was and the numbers have been pretty bad throughout the season. But he did see seven targets last week in a game where Denver left most of the receivers in single-man coverage. Should that happen again, Woods could be on the radar. Heck, he even saw a red zone target last week, his first since Week 5 so perhaps things are turning around.
AJ Dillon, RB Green Bay Packers
He’s averaged 11 carries over the past three weeks and continues to serve in a complementary role behind Aaron Jones. If you’re looking for a potential touchdown without much fanfare, Dillon might be the guy. He’s seen four red zone carries over the last three games, three in the green zone and two inside the five-yard line. You won’t see much in the way of yardage, but if he can push it over the goal line even once, it’s a win for those who have him in their lineups.
Sammy Watkins, WR Green Bay Packers
With Romeo Doubs out, Watkins gets a little more attention as evidenced by the five targets he saw when Doubs left with the injury and then another three last week. We’d like to see Sammy break out a little and get on the same page as Rodgers, but it’s pretty close to throwing a dart for a Showdown lineup. If you are a multi-lineup player, then you should get at least some exposure to him.
Robert Tonyan, TE Green Bay Packers
The targets have drifted off as Rodgers continues to try and develop his receivers, but hopefully we can get some red zone work here for the Packers lead tight end. The Titans are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, so if the receivers are having trouble getting open, Tonyan could get leaned on a bit.
Treylon Burks, WR Tennessee Titans
He’s still making his way back from injury, but the Titans are confident enough in him that his snaps and targets look the same as they did to start the year. The problem here is that he’ll be matched-up with Jaire Alexander most of the time. You can use him and hope he gets moved around a little more but a big breakout game seems unlikely.
Austin Hooper, TE Tennessee Titans
He seems to be garnering some attention in the seasonal format thanks to seven targets last week against the Broncos, however, the Packers cover the tight end much better than Denver does, as evidenced by the ranking of 14th in DVOA and only allowing an average of 31.4 receiving yards per game. Multi-lineup player? Sure, get him in there. But be careful of your expectations.
Dart-Throw DFS Bargains
Randall Cobb, WR Green Bay Packers
Sounds like the Packers are going to try and activate him this week. We already know Rodgers is Cobb’s biggest fan, so if he’s active, he should be in-play for lineups as the Titans rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing slot receiver.
Marcedes Lewis, TE Green Bay Packers
We’ve seen it before. Everyone is on on Tonyan and it’s Lewis who gets the touchdown. It’s brutal, we know, but that’s what Showdown slates are all about. If you need savings on salary and want to throw a dart, Lewis could be your ticket to cashing.
Dontrell Hilliard, RB Tennessee Titans
Should Henry be rendered ineffective because the Packers have sold out to stop the run, then Hilliard sees some extra snaps as the pass-catching, third-down guy. We’ve seen him sneak into the end zone before, so depending on how you see this game playing out, he’s worth a look if building multiple lineups.
Related NFL Articles & Tools:
- NFL Week 11 Injury Report
- NFL Week 11 Projections
- NFL DFS Lineup Generator
- NFL DFS Compare Tool
- NFL Week 11 Position Coaches