In closing out Week 7 of the NFL season, we are using this NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook to break down the interconference matchup that will see the Houston Texans fresh off their Bye week take on the Seattle Seahawks.

Of the two games on Monday’s slate, this was the more difficult game to preview. The first game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions has a game total of 53.5 points while this second matchup is at 41.5 and we have plenty of studs in bad matchups in this game. That certainly puts both D/ST’s in play, but we may struggle to find plays we feel great about in this game which will consolidate ownership and exposure more toward the first matchup. Let’s take a look at the second NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook for the late game in the Pacific Northwest!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Texans vs. Seahawks Game Preview

After dropping their first three games this season, the Houston Texans found some momentum heading into their Bye week. They won their last two matchups against the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens with a combined score of 70-10. After starting the year with two touchdowns and three interceptions, C.J. Stroud would throw six touchdowns and no interceptions against the Titans and Ravens. So the Texans have fresh legs and hopefully the play calling found it’s groove. 

This particular matchup will be very difficult, however. The Seahawks defense has been pretty beat up in recent weeks, especially among their secondary. Based on their injury report from over the weekend, they’ll be getting some key pieces in the secondary back which could give Houston fits on offense.

The Seahawks have also been getting some elite quarterback play from Sam Darnold. On the season he’s completing 70% of his pass attempts with 11 touchdowns in his last five games. No receiver in the NFL is having as much of a breakout as Jaxon Smith-Njigba is. He’s turning into a star in just his second season in the league, but we’ll see how good he really is matched up against Derek Stingley Monday night.

This game projects to be very low scoring and most of us won’t be awake by the end of it. Some of us (myself included) probably won’t even make it to kickoff for this game. But let’s take a look at the second NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook to put a bow on Week 7!

 

 

 

Texans vs. Seahawks Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Houston Texans didn’t have the most elaborate injury report as it only listed four players throughout the week. But they have ruled out wide receiver Christian Kirk and defensive back Alijah Huzzie for this primetime matchup. Defensive tackle Denico Autry is listed as questionable.

The Seahawks injury report is a bit more detailed. Linebacker Derick Hall is likely out for this game. Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon are listed as questionable but there’s optimism they should be able to suit up. DeMarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Riq Woolen should be able to go so the defense is getting reinforcements.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/20

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $11,800

JSN is easily one of the top plays on the slate and it’s not hard to see why. In four-of-six games so far this year he’s hit the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings and he’s scored three touchdowns in his last four games. He’s the only receiver in the NFL with a target per route run rate over 0.35 and a yards per route run rate over 4.00. In terms of volume and efficiency, he and Puka Nacua are in a tier all to themselves.

Not much of an argument needs to be made on his behalf. If anything we should probably acknowledge the elephant in the room. JSN runs about 78% of his routes from the perimeter which means he’s likely to see shadow coverage from Derek Stingley Prior to Houston’s Bye week Stingley shadowed Davante Adams, Mike Evans, and Brian Thomas and he held all three to under 12 fantasy points. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, Houston’s given up the lowest catch rate (57%) to wide receivers, only three passing touchdowns to the position, and they’re touting the second-lowest EPA against the pass. It’s a tough matchup all around for the Seattle pass catchers, especially if JSN gets special treatment from Stingley.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $11,200

According to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, Nico Collins was the most commonly rostered player among 0-6 fantasy football teams heading into Week 7. That’s how bad it’s been for Collins under a new offensive coordinator. But over his last four games prior to the team’s Bye week, Collins saw a total of 31 targets and found the end zone three times.

We’ll need to monitor the inactives for Seattle. They’ve been pretty beat up over their last two games missing the likes of Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen. But both practiced in full on Saturday and if they’re active (in addition to Julian Love and DeMarcus Lawrence) then that’s a big upgrade for Seattle’s defense at home.

Houston’s last two games were lopsided wins over Baltimore and Tennessee. I don’t want to assume we’ll see similar production because when Seattle’s defense is at full strength, they’re far better than the Ravens and Titans. Emeka Egbuka and Brian Thomas had success against this defense, but Collins may have his hands full. This game has the lower total on the two-game slate so we need to identify some Captain candidates and Collins still has upside given his size and talent.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $10,400

This is a tough matchup for Sam Darnold especially given the numbers we just dropped in JSN’s section. This is a very difficult defense and secondary that’s coming out of the Bye week. But at a certain point, credit should be given when it’s due.

Darnold is completing 70% of his pass attempts this season and leads all qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.39). He’s also first in average depth of target (9.3), turnover-worthy play rate (1.1%), he ranks second in completion percentage over expected (11.2%), and he’s third in success rate (56.9%).

The Seattle offensive line will likely have their hands full Monday night. They rank 18th in pressure rate allowed (30.6%) and 22nd in pass block win rate (58%). On the other side, the Texans rank third in pressure rate (39.2%) and pass rush win rate (47%). This might be more of a floor performance for Darnold but he’s done well keeping drives alive but he’s staring down an incredibly difficult matchup in primetime.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $7,600

Obviously this one is concerning. The production since Zach Charbonnet returned has fallen off for Walker. It should be considered malpractice what the Seahawks have done with this backfield. Since Week 1, Walker is averaging just over five yards per carry. Since returning, Charbonnet is below three yards per carry. We’ve all seen it with our own eyes, but Zach Charbonnet hasn’t looked nearly as good as Walker running the ball. Walker’s been limited to 11 touches in each of his last two games.

This past week, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had this to say on getting Walker more work: “That’s something that we want… To keep getting him more opportunities. He’s doing a heck of a job, but I don’t want to discount Zach (Charbonnet), and I don’t want to discount George (Holani),” so we can’t even take anything away from that. It would’ve been better if he didn’t mention Charbonnet or Holani at all! 

To make matters worse, the matchup for all running backs in this game is pretty brutal if we’re being honest. With regard to Seattle, the outlook for Walker and Charbonnet is pretty bleak when you consider the Texans haven’t allowed a running back to reach 12 fantasy points in a game this season.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $10,200

Both these teams are working with new offensive coordinators for the 2025 season. Klint Kubiak is the former OC for Houston, who is now with Seattle. So Houston’s new OC, Nick Caley, stumbled out of the gates a bit but seemingly started hitting a stride prior to the team’s Bye week. The matchups were easier but Stroud was able to start putting up decent numbers. In Weeks 4 and 5, Stroud threw for a combined 477 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions while completing almost 82%(!) of his pass attempts.

Stroud has also been averaging nearly 20 rushing yards per game as well so that does elevate his floor somewhat. The Seahawks don’t blitz very often (14.4%) but they do rank 11th in the NFL in non-blitz pressure rate (32.3%). But the Texans offensive line also ranks 29th in pass block win rate (51%) so Stroud could be scrambling a bit in this game. Despite Stroud’s early-season struggles, he does rank 13th in EPA/Play (0.16) and he’s 11th in success rate (50.5%) and completion percentage over expected (3.9%). Tread carefully here because Seattle’s in line to get reinforcements back for this game.

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $7,000

Nick Chubb, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $6,400

As we noted in the Kenneth Walker section, we don’t feel great about any running backs in this game. And that’s especially true on the Houston side of the ball as well. Marks doesn’t have a ton of rushing upside, but he did catch four passes in Week 4. Chubb is in play as well but this backfield is truly splitting the snaps between these two until there’s a hot hand.

Seattle has been tough to run on. They’re allowing just 79 rushing yards per game (second fewest in the NFL) and that numbers drops to 68 yards per game over their last three matchups. They do, however, yield production to running backs through the air. The Jaguars running backs collected seven receptions for 52 yards. Rachaad White and Sean Tucker totaled seven receptions as well for Tampa Bay, while Trey Benson and Emari Demercado also combined for seven receptions back in Week 4.

Again, it’s not much to work with but this game in particular is void of anyone we really feel great about for this Showdown matchup and the two-game slate. We can lean into the Houston running backs but we should expect very little on the ground.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $6,800

Cooper Kupp’s production in his first year with Seattle has fluctuated a bit. He has three games with 11.9 or more fantasy points. And he also has three games with less than seven fantasy points. Kupp lines up in the slot for 51% of his routes so it’s very likely he won’t see much coverage from Derek Stingley As we’ve already discussed, that distinguished honor probably goes to JSN.

Kupp’s production correlates with his number of targets. Last week when he found the end zone, he returned 12 fantasy points but only had three targets, so it’s a bit fluky. Kupp does have two games with nine targets this season and with JSN being blanketed by Stingley in this matchup, we could see more targets funnel to Kupp.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $4,600

I’m not a huge Schultz fan but he was consistently seeing volume in the three games leading up to the Bye week. You can’t get much more consistent than five receptions on six targets in three consecutive games.

Now in that three-game span he only totaled 129 receiving yards and he didn’t find the end zone. Per usual, the tight end position is touchdown dependent. The Seahawks have been pretty bad at defending the tight end position. While they haven’t given up many touchdowns to the position (two total on the year), this is a spot where Schultz can once again catch five or six passes and be a nice paydown option. For a game with several players in subpar matchups, Schultz stands out as having a good one.

AJ Barner, TE, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $4,400

Similar to Schultz, I’m not a huge AJ Barner fan. If I’m being honest, I’d love to see if Seattle could get Elijah Arroyo going. But to his credit, Barner has been finding the end zone with four touchdowns on the season already. He’s caught all 14 of his targets over the last four games and with JSN seeing shadow coverage from Stingley it’s possible they look to Barner a bit more for shorter passes over the middle to keep the offense moving.

Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,600

With Christian Kirk ruled out there are some value pass catchers available to us on the Houston side. I probably prefer Schultz (listed above) more than the cheap receivers, but we can’t rule out the possibility of one of these receivers popping off. 

Huchinson scored twice in Week 5 prior to the team’s week off but he hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game. But again, targets are readily available and Christian Kirk is going to miss another game. We should be keeping Jayden Higgins and. Jaylin Noel in play as well.

Tory Horton, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,200

Horton will be a trendy value pick because of his three touchdowns since Week 2. I suppose it’s worth noting from Weeks 2-5 he had 15 targets but failed to catch his lone target last week.

Horton does have potential for a score as we’ve seen three times this year. But he’s buried in the depth chart behind Cooper Kupp, but the rookie still sees opportunities in three-receiver sets and he gets work as a punt returner so there’s some correlation with the Seahawks D/ST. 

 

 

 

Texans vs. Seahawks DFS Player Pool, 10/20

Author’s Note: So as of very early Monday morning, FanDuel was having difficulties with their pricing. For starters, the prices for Monday Night Football’s two-game slate were not available as of Sunday night. And on Monday, there were significant login issues preventing me from seeing the prices. The table below will only show the DraftKings prices, but this table also applies to the FanDuel slate as well. Normally I would wait and fix the issue, but I’ll be traveling on Monday and won’t be readily available to add the FanDuel pool below.

Player Pool

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Stacks

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