We close out Week 4 with a matchup straight out of the AFC East. In fact, we get another Monday Night Football doubleheader just two weeks after the last one. We kick off Game 1 with the New York Jets visiting the Miami Dolphins at 7:00pm ET. This Playbook covers the first matchup and there will be a separate Playbook for the game kicking off an hour later featuring the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos in Mile High. Let’s take a look at how these teams match up for the latest Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Jets vs. Dolphins Game Preview

Both these organizations enter Week 4 at 0-3 and they sit at the bottom of the AFC East. When you consider the long-term direction of both organizations, it’s a bit muddy. The Dolphins appear close to a full blown rebuild. Tyreek Hill’s name has appeared in trade rumors, Mike McDaniel is potentially on the hot seat, and they’re going to be buried under Tua Tagovailoa’s contract for a few years to come.

The Jets aren’t in much better shape although there’s more patience with this team. Aaron Glenn is still in his first year as head coach and the front office locked up Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner in the offseason. They don’t quite have their “franchise” quarterback at the moment, but a team can do much worse than Justin Fields.

The long-term outlook is uncertain for both teams. For this matchup in particular, we could see some fireworks and that’s enough to get us interested in this matchup for NFL DFS Showdown contests and the two-game NFL DFS slate for Monday Night Football. Both these defenses are horrendous. Entering Week 3 they both ranked bottom three in defensive EPA/DB. The Dolphins have allowed opposing offenses to score 30+ points in all three games. The Jets defense has done that in two of their three games so far. It’s part of the reason the over on 45.5 points is pretty tempting. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for Game 1 of Monday Night Football’s doubleheader!

 

 

 

Jets vs. Dolphins Notable Injuries & Inactives

Justin Fields cleared concussion protocol so he’s available to start this game for the Jets and he even managed to practice in full all week. The only players the Jets have officially ruled out are backup running back Kene Nwangwu while the defense will be without Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and Jermaine Johnson II.

Tyreek Hill was a non-participant in practice on Saturday but it was so he could be with his parents for their 50th wedding anniversary. Darren Waller was a limited participant in practice this week, but he seems poised to make his debut with Miami after being sidelined with a hip injury. So far they’ve ruled out defensive backs Storm Duck, Jason Marshall Jr., and they’ve listed Ethan Bonner as questionable.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 9/29

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $13,600

Achane’s involvement is too good to pass up. He sees about 16 touches per game and he has 19(!) total targets in his last two games. He’s yet to get a 100-yard bonus on DraftKings whether that’s through rushing or receiving yards, but something’s got to give.

On paper, the Jets haven’t been awful “against the run” per se, but yet they’ve given up production to running backs. For example, in Week 1 they only gave up 54 rushing yards to Pittsburgh’s running backs. But Jaylen Warren still caught a receiving touchdown. In Week 2, James Cook had a monstrous game, but the Buffalo Bills are basically outliers at this point as the best team in the AFC. Last week the Tampa Bay Buccaneers combo of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White totaled 78 rushing yards on the ground while Bucky added four receptions.

The heavy involvement in the passing game gives Achane a great floor in this matchup and we know he has a massive ceiling. In Week 18 last year he only carried the ball 11 times against the Jets but still popped for 121 yards and a score without a single reception in that game. Let’s hope for a repeat performance with some catches baked in as well.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,600

He’s probably my least favorite Captain candidate in this article. I try to put four in here for each Showdown Playbook and they’re listed in order of pricing on DraftKings. So don’t assume that since he follows Achane that he’s my second favorite. I have concerns with the level of play from his quarterback due to the protection Tua is getting from the offensive line.

The speed actually isn’t all that bad. He’s getting separation and still collecting targets. He had 10 targets in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football against the Bills and found the end zone when he arguably could’ve had two touchdowns. When these teams met in Week 14 last year, Hill did catch 10 passes on 14 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. So he does have a nice ceiling.

Strangely enough, after their Week 3 loss, Tyreek Hill was wildly optimistic about the coaching of Mike McDaniel in that game and it was a bit odd that he took such a high road to boost morale in the locker room. But he is still a name that’s associated with some rumored trades and if Miami keeps losing then it’s possible he’s dealt. And for that to happen he does need to showcase his skills a bit until then.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

Garrett Wilson is by far a better Captain recommendation for this game. Wilson’s found the end zone twice so far this season and he has 21 catches on 30 targets through three games. Among all wide receivers entering Week 3, Wilson ranks top three in terms of target share (34%), team’s receiving yardage share (46%), and first read target share (47%).

The Dolphins do deploy a nice mix of man and zone coverage schemes. They play Cover 0 man coverage on 11% of their defensive snaps and Cover 1 man coverage on 21%. Last year Wilson touted a 77.6% success rate against man coverage, which put him in the top 6% of receivers while also boasting an 82.4% success rate against zone coverage schemes, which the Dolphins use on over 60% of their defensive reps.

There’s really nobody that can really shadow him on the Miami side. He should be able to get open at his own will and be able to produce and make plays and I feel better about the play knowing Justin Fields will be back for this game.

Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

Fields cleared concussion protocol so he will start this matchup and that puts him in play at Captain for our NFL DFS Showdown picks. We value quarterbacks that offer rushing upside and Fields has 97 rushing yards through two games and honestly, we can’t even say he played two full games. But in Week 1 he did collect two rushing touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As fate would have it, the Miami Dolphins have already played three teams that have quarterbacks with rushing upside. In Week 1, Daniel Jones rushed for two touchdowns while throwing for 272 yards and another touchdown. In Week 2, Drake Maye found the end zone with his legs and threw for two more touchdowns. And in Week 3, Josh Allen didn’t find the end zone on the ground, but he did throw for three touchdowns.

The Dolphins defense can be beaten in a variety of ways and this is a particularly friendly matchup for the quarterback position so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Fields was the optimal Captain in this matchup.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $8,600

Waddle is a fine play, but I don’t think he has the same ceiling as the players listed above. You may be inclined to disagree because he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games. However, he only has an 18% target share which relegates him to the third pass catching option on this offense behind Hill and Achane.

But for a player to be in the Captain section, I prefer to see more than just five or six targets per game, and that’s been the case so far in 2025 for Waddle. The involvement closer to the goal line is great, but he lacks the big play upside of Achane, who will likely touch the ball 15+ times Monday night. He luckily won’t see much shadow coverage against Sauce Gardner and in two games against the Jets in 2024 he totaled 13 catches on 21 targets for 143 yards.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,800

Because he’s a quarterback and we’re breaking down a two-game NFL DFS slate in addition to a Showdown matchup, he’s making the Playbook by default because quarterbacks offer a good floor, especially for Showdown slates.

Tua’s floor is horrifically low. He’s thrown for five touchdowns through three games and he got the 300-yard bonus in Week 2 against the New England Patriots. However, he’s also credited with five turnovers as well. So for the Showdown slate I would really only play him in the Flex if playing Hill or Achane at Captain.

Opposing quarterbacks haven’t thrown the ball too much on the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers did toss four touchdowns against this secondary in a revenge game in Week 1. Josh Allen had a very tame line against the Jets with just 148 passing yards but he rushed for 59 yards in a blowout win over New York. And last week Baker Mayfield lost Mike Evans and played behind a depleted offensive line. And he still threw for 233 yards and a score with 44 rushing yards. I think Tua can certainly do enough to return 16-18 points for our NFL DFS lineups while his pass catchers provide for the bigger returns.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,800

Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $5,800

The preferred play is clearly Breece Hall. But his touches dipped to a suspicious low with a total of 25 touches over his last two games. By comparison he had 21 total touches in Week 1 with 145 total yards. He has 90 total yards in his last two games and the efficiency has been terrible (2.63 YPC).

Braelon Allen isn’t even doing much to cut into Hall’s workload. He only has 16 total touches through three games so the job is still Hall’s. Because of the touch distribution I’m less inclined to play Allen on DraftKings. We should pay up $1,000 to get the running back with more touches and snaps.

The fortunate news is that the Dolphins can be beaten in a variety of ways. They give up production to all positions including running backs. Jonathan Taylor and DJ Giddens combined for 112 rushing yards in Week 1 while Taylor also added three catches for 27 yards. The Patriots running backs combined for 101 rushing yards and eight receptions for 119 receiving yards. James Cook popped for 108 yards and a touchdown and he also had three receptions.

Breece Hall has shown upside in the past, but the new coaching staff seems non-committal on using him as a bell cow running back. But this price tag is still manageable especially if he can find the end zone while getting 12-to-15 touches.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Darren Waller, TE, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $4,800

Waller is set to make his debut and while the value is nice for the starting tight end of the Dolphins, you do have to wonder how much rust there may be. It’s unlikely he plays a full allotment of snaps, but the upside is tempting. He hasn’t played in a regular season NFL game in over 20 months as he retired prior to the 2024 season. He’s also 33 years old and it’s unsure how much he has left in the tank.

But we saw this position really excel in McDaniel’s offense last season. Jonnu Smith got off to a slow start with this offense a year ago but he finished with eight touchdowns and 884 receiving yards. I would like it if he was a bit cheaper and perhaps we look elsewhere if we get the sense that his ownership will spike. But the Dolphins have been patient with the hip injury so if he’s active then you have to imagine he gets some targets especially in a trailing game script.

Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $4,400

The debut of Waller may throw a small wrench into Washington’s usage, but at the end of the day he’s still getting manufactured touches. They aren’t much but they’re enough to justify utilizing him as a cheap DFS play.

Washington has 12 targets through three games with 12 total touches as well. We also get some exposure to the D/ST by using Washington because he returns punts. I personally am avoiding the D/ST’s in this game, but Washington gives us exposure to the return game.

Aside from Jaylen Waddle, no player would benefit more from Tyreek Hill being traded than Washington as his role would likely increase. Until then he’s still an upside play that is fortunately getting a few touches per game.

Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $2,600

So not much has come of Mason Taylor yet. He was the 42nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and he was one of the top tight ends in this year’s draft class. The usage hasn’t been great and his father, Jason Taylor (a Miami Dolphins legend), has been vocal about his son’s involvement.

Last week, Mason Taylor managed to catch 4-of-6 targets for only 18 yards with Tyrod Taylor getting the start at quarterback. Taylor only has a 12% target share and 9% air yards share through three games. But Aaron Glenn has acknowledged that he knows the Jets need to get this kid more involved. 

The good news is that the Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends through three games. And Taylor is still seeing over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. He came close to snagging a touchdown last week but he’s an intriguing pivot in this matchup off the more popular name of Ollie Gordon for the Miami Dolphins. Taylor is probably better suited for the two-game slate because there is so much chalk for both games so only utilize him if you’re making 10+ lineups.

 

 

 

Jets vs. Dolphins DFS Player Pool, 9/29

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