For the second straight Thursday we kick off a new week of the 2025 NFL schedule with a Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the NFC West. Last week the Seattle Seahawks went on the road and got a win against the Arizona Cardinals. This week the San Francisco 49ers visit the Los Angeles Rams in Southern California to kick off Week 5.

The NFC West is off to a great start. Along with the Seahawks, both of these teams enter this matchup at 3-1 while the Cardinals are 2-2. However, as we get ready to place our bets and set our NFL DFS Showdown lineups for this game, the home team is trending in a good direction while the visiting team is riddled with injuries on a short week. Having to mix in some travel certainly won’t help things either for the 49ers. Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up as we break down another Showdown matchup with our latest 49ers vs. Rams DFS picks!

 

 

 

49ers vs. Rams DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 10/2

This game features a clash of two fantasy football titans who will both attract significant ownership on this slate, especially at Captain. Puka Nacua is seeing some of the most ridiculous volume for a wide receiver. The former fifth round selection has 30(!) targets in his last two games and 50 on the season. Through four games his current 17-game pace stands at 178 receptions on 212 targets for 2,137 yards. Obviously he has a long way to go to hit such a mark and he is a player that dealt with injuries in college and those certainly caught up to him last year.

For the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey has really turned back the clock to deliver the goods with heavy volume as he’s been San Francisco’s most healthy and reliable skill position player. Through four games he already has 100 touches on the season with 530 total yards, which have come mostly through the passing game for the 49ers.

But the 49ers are limping into a Thursday Night Football matchup with a lot of injuries. They lost Nick Bosa for the year on the defensive side of the ball a couple weeks back. On the offensive side, the announced some significant injuries and inactives before we even got to Thursday, but we’ll get to those shortly.

We will keep you posted up in the Fantasy Alarm Discord channel with injury news and lineup suggestions up until kickoff as we look to dominate Week 5. Let’s start digging into the top plays and lineup building strategies for our 49ers vs. Rams DFS picks!

 

 

 

49ers vs. Rams TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • 49ers +7.5 (-115)
    • Rams -7.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • 49ers (+285)
    • Rams (-360)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 44.5 (-115)
    • Under 44.5 (-105)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • 49ers +7 (-105)
    • Rams -7 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • 49ers (+300)
    • Rams (-375)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 45.5 (-106)
    • Under 45.5 (-114)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: 49ers vs. Rams TNF, October 2nd 

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns for our TNF DFS picks.

 

49ers vs. Rams Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 5

The hometown Los Angeles Rams come in with a relatively clean bill of health. Offensive lineman Rob Havenstein and tight end Tyler Higbee haven’t practiced all week and they’re currently doubtful for Thursday’s matchup.

Things are much worse for the San Francisco 49ers. On Wednesday they ruled out Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall. They also ruled out depth receiver Jordan Watkins and on the defensive side of the ball, Robert Beal will not be made available. So the 49ers will turn to Mac Jones who is 2-0 on the year when given the start, but the weapons at his disposal leave a lot to be desired aside from Christian McCaffrey.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $12,800

If all fantasy football leagues were re-drafting after four weeks, it seems pretty obvious that Puka Nacua would be the consensus top pick. He leads the league in so many categories: targets (50), catches (42), and receiving yards (503). He’s played in 32 NFL games in his young career and he’s recorded 100+ receiving yards in 17 of those games and he’s just the second player in the Super Bowl era to post 40+ receptions and 500+ receiving yards through the first four games of a season.

If there’s one knock on his game, it may be that he doesn’t command a huge red zone or end zone target share. His teammate, Davante Adams, leads the league with a massive 90% end zone target share, and he’s third with a 47% target share in the red zone. But Nacua is a great chain mover as he leads the league in overall target share (38%) with ridiculous levels of volume week in and week out.

Even if he isn’t hitting paydirt with a score, you just feel so good about him receiving targets on a consistent basis and the fact he’s recorded the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings three times already this year just elevates him to an elite status.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $13,200

According to Fantasy Points, in the handful of years they’ve been collecting data, 2025 Christian McCaffrey leads all players in expected fantasy points (27.2), but perhaps we should tread with a little caution. On a weekly basis, we trust the volume and lean into it. His receiving numbers elevate him to a different tier. But it’s not all as perfect as it may seem.

CMC has 69 rush attempts for 225 yards (3.26 YPC) through four games and he doesn’t have a single rushing touchdown, nor has he rushed for 70+ yards in any game. Now it’s not entirely his fault, as the offensive line has been getting beat badly in the trenches each week. 

The good news is that his receiving totals are off the charts for a running back. He’s tied for the eighth-highest target share in the league at 29% while he leads all running backs in that category. As a matter of fact, he’d rank as the WR8 is you simply looked at his receiving numbers (31 receptions, 305 receiving yards, and two touchdowns) according to Sleeper.

The 49ers are pretty beat up at almost every other skill position so it’s wild that Christian McCaffrey is the healthiest option they have. But perhaps they need to consider scaling his workload due to his injury history. Volume is helping his value each week but given the injury history he may be a ticking time bomb for fantasy football.

Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $9,800

The fun part of this NFL DFS Showdown slate is that it really isn’t hard to see how we can gain leverage on the field. Both Puka Nacua and Christian McCaffrey will likely command 20+% exposure at Captain. It’s possibly that number may even exceed 25% for both players. Which means the remaining 40-50% of NFL DFS Showdown entries will have the rest of the field at Captain and there are certainly other players on this slate with a high ceiling.

As we mentioned in Nacua’s section, Davante Adams leads the league with a 90% end zone target share and he’s third with a 47% red zone target share. This one-two punch of Adams and Nacua is paying off in big ways for this offense. Adams is an elite man coverage beater, while Nacua dominates zone coverage schemes, which San Francisco runs a lot of. Nacua’s volume elevates him over Adams most of the time, but Adams still sees the high value touches once the Rams are in position to score. He’s found the end zone in three straight games and he could certainly make it four straight on Thursday.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $11,800

Stafford is coming off a huge game where he threw for 375 yards, three touchdowns, and he eclipsed 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings. But given the landscape for this slate, it feels like a skill position player will end up in the optimal lineup at Captain. And keep in mind, prior to last week’s game, Stafford had three straight performances with under 20 fantasy points.

Stafford is obviously a great correlation play in the flex especially if you choose to go with either Puka Nacua or Davante Adams at Captain. He offers a rather safe floor in this matchup and the 49ers only have one sack in their last two games. Their defense is sorely missing Nick Bosa so we should expect Stafford to feed Nacua plenty against San Francisco’s zone heavy defense and then get Adams involved in the red zone.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,800

Kyren is certainly a bit of a fringe Captain suggestion for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He offers an incredibly safe floor but we’ve yet to really see his ceiling so far through three games. He really does check all the boxes. He’s had 16+ touches in each of his first four games this year, he’s averaging two receptions per game which is always a nice bonus, and he’s found the end zone twice. I’m just a bit hesitant to plug him in as a Captain recommendation because he hasn’t registered the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings and on a short week, it feels like Blake Corum could get a little more run similar to what we saw in Week 2.

San Francisco has been pretty weak against the run as Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara combined to rush for over 200 yards against the defense rather recently. I give a slight preference to running backs in home games where their team is comfortably favored. 

Jake Tonges, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $6,000

Tonges is a core play with the news that Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall will both be inactive. The tight end position in the 49ers offense is a bit of a commodity. Has Tonges necessarily picked up the torch and ran with it? Not quite. But he’s averaging four targets per game and has two touchdowns on the year. The Rams haven’t been severely tested by opposing tight ends, but Tyler Warren caught five passes for 70 yards last week. Tonges isn’t at his level necessarily but we potentially have an abundance of cheap pass catchers from San Francisco that could pay off in a big way.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Play

Mac Jones, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $1,000

Mac Jones is a tougher player to read but I’m including him in this section. Please note the pricing on FanDuel and have a good laugh. At least DraftKings was prepared to make this interesting by appropriately pricing the backup quarterbacks. FanDuel just mails it in with their pricing without reading the news.

Mac Jones is going to get the start after Brock Purdy was ruled out on Wednesday. Mac Jones was serviceable in his two previous starts in Weeks 2 and 3. He did enough to help get the win in each game while throwing for 563 total yards and four touchdowns. He did have two turnovers, but this offensive line is pretty beat up like the rest of the locker room.

Do I think he’s a core play and a lock? Not quite. The quality of weapons is diminished a bit without Pearsall and Jennings. And as you’ll read on, I have pretty decent expectations for the Rams defense. This isn’t even a play you need to correlate with CMC at Captain because you can build lineups with similar, or better, upside without Jones. He has an okay floor but for a short week, I don’t love his fantasy outlook like I did in Weeks 2 and 3.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $3,600

There is certainly an argument to be made for putting Bourne in the core plays over Tonges. Considering how bad the San Francisco offensive line has performed, I have some concerns that Tonges could stay in-line to block more as Jones feeds the targets to CMC and the rest of the receivers.

Now whenever a backup quarterback comes into the mix, we look at who he may have the most chemistry with whether that be from practice or training camp. Kendrick Bourne is probably the one San Francisco receiver we can feel even remotely confident in who may have built a rapport with Jones. The numbers weren’t great but in Week 2 Bourne caught all three targets for 32 yards. In Week 3 he caught 4-of-6 targets for 38 yards.

But Pearsall was available for both those games while Jennings was available for one. There are plenty of targets to be re-distributed. CMC is already averaging 25 touches per game and Sean McVay will do everything imaginable to contain McCaffrey’s production. So there is an opportunity for one or two receivers to step up and Bourne is a solid candidate.

Demarcus Robinson, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,200

Revenge game, anybody? With how beat up and desperate the 49ers are for pass catchers we may find some value with Demarcus Robinson.  The absence of both players opens up routes and roughly 12-14 targets. There is the possibility for more if the 49ers are playing from behind in this matchup.

Now there will be quite a few cheap options on DraftKings and FanDuel to consider with Pearsall and Jennings sitting this game out. For that reason, we are keeping our options open to include Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore.

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $4,400

This is more of a gut call but there will be games throughout the year where the Rams limit Kyren Williams. They won’t necessarily commit him to 10-12 touches in certain games. But there are matchups where they may take away the short yardage and goal line work in favor of Blake Corum.

We saw it happen in Week 2 when Corum sniped a short yardage touchdown. And then in Weeks 3 and 4, Corum touched the ball 19 times. This feels like a game when Corum could see some short yardage work because it’s a short week and Kyren’s coming off a game where he fumbled in Week 4. Again, this is mostly a gut call but with a lot of chalk value coming in on the San Francisco side this is a good way to get a little different in the value range.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The Rams D/ST as the hometown favorite will certainly draw some ownership for this NFL DFS Showdown slate. Entering Week 4 they rank second in the NFL in defensive EPA/DB (-0.12) only behind the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams currently rank third in sack rate (9.5%), sixth in pressure-to-sack rate (22.6%) and they’re top 10 in pressure rate (41.9%) and pass rush win rate (43%). For fantasy purposes the Rams have 14 sacks and seven takeaways through four games. Against an offensive line that is mostly getting bullied each week, and with questions surrounding the health of some key pieces on the Rams, we can certainly look to the Rams for our TNF DFS picks.

The 49ers D/ST doesn’t inspire me very much in this matchup. They haven’t forced a turnover since Week 2 and they have just one sack since losing Nick Bosa. The Rams are home favorites with roughly a 26-point implied total. Entering Week 4 they rank outside the top 20 in the NFL in terms of pressure rate (33.1%), sack rate (3.7%), blitz rate (22.8%), and pass rush win rate (32%). The Rams offensive pieces are in relatively good health, so this isn’t a spot I’m dying to play the 49ers D/ST. However, they still have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball and this is a position of variance. I can’t completely write them off because they could return value with a couple big plays on defense and special teams. For that reason, I’m keeping them in the player pool below.

Both kickers pique my interest but with San Francisco missing some starters on offense, I think we downgrade Eddy Pineiro just slightly. The reason being that we do want the offenses to be able to move the ball effectively to put their kickers into position to score points. However, we just highlighted how good the Rams are defensively. Only one team has put up more than 290 yards of offense on the Rams. So I’m a bit hesitant about the 49ers offense heading into this matchup. But since taking over for Jake Moody, Pineiro is 7-for-7 on field goal attempts in three games.

Joshua Karty appeared in Jon Impemba’s player props article for Week 4 and Jon nailed the over on Karty’s kicking prop very early in the game. This matchup feels like we can trust the Rams to move the ball at will in their own barn. Karty did miss two field goals against the Eagles in Week 3, but overall he’s had 10 attempts in his last three games and he’s made eight of them. There’s a pretty solid floor here given that the offense has been so productive and he’s a good correlation piece.

 

 

 

49ers vs. Rams DFS Player Pool: TNF, 10/2

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