Thursday Night Football brings us a critical NFC South showdown as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) host the Atlanta Falcons (4-9). For Tampa Bay, the stakes couldn't be higher: they are in the thick of the playoff hunt and need this win to keep pace with the Panthers (also 7-6) for the division crown. For Atlanta, this is a spoiler spot, a chance to wreck a rival's season while evaluating their roster for 2026.

The spread sits at Bucs -4.5 with a total of 44.5, suggesting a moderately scoring affair. We’ve identified four player props that offer significant value based on recent trends, historical matchups, and the specific game script we expect to unfold at Raymond James Stadium.

Here are my best bets for Thursday night.

Best NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks: Baker Mayfield Over 217.5 Passing Yards

This line feels like a "buy-low" trap set by the books, and we are going to walk right past the recent game logs and take the Over. Yes, Baker Mayfield has been in a slump, failing to crack 200 yards in his last four outings. However, the context has shifted dramatically.

For the first time all season, Tampa Bay’s receiving corps is projected to be fully healthy. Mike Evans is expected to return to the lineup after missing time with a collarbone injury, re-joining Chris Godwin and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka. On top of that, Jalen McMillan is also trending toward a return, potentially giving Mayfield his complete arsenal of weapons.

This changes the entire geometry of the field. Without Evans, defenses could bracket Godwin and condense the field, suffocating the passing game. With Evans back on the perimeter and Egbuka working the intermediate areas, Atlanta's secondary, which has struggled against deep receiving groups, will be stretched thin. 218 yards is a low bar for a QB in a must-win divisional game who finally has all his best options back in the box.

 

 

 

Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Prop Bets: Baker Mayfield: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

If there is one bet I am most confident in, it is this one. Regardless of his yardage totals, Baker Mayfield finds the end zone against Atlanta.

Consider his recent history versus the Falcons:

  • Week 1, 2025 vs. ATL: 3 Passing TDs
  • Week 8, 2024 vs. ATL: 3 Passing TDs
  • Week 5, 2024 @ ATL: 3 Passing TDs

Mayfield has thrown exactly three touchdowns in each of his last three games against the Falcons. With Evans returning to serve as the ultimate red-zone mismatch and Egbuka proving to be a reliable target near the goal line, the probability of passing scores skyrockets. Atlanta’s red-zone defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, often bending and breaking inside the 20. Expect the Bucs to dial up fades and back-shoulder throws when they get close. Getting this at nearly even money is fantastic value given his history in this rivalry.

 

 

 

Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Prop Bets: Kirk Cousins: Over 0.5 Interceptions

This line offers sneaky value given Cousins' disjointed season. Due to injuries and roster shuffling, Cousins has only appeared in six games with just four starts this year. However, in that limited sample size, the turnover bug has still bitten him.

Cousins has thrown 3 interceptions in his 4 starts this season, averaging nearly a pick per game when he's under center. Tonight, he faces a desperate Buccaneers defense that thrives on chaos at home. Tampa Bay currently ranks 2nd in the NFL with a +9 turnover differential, reflecting their ability to consistently take the ball away. The game script projects the Bucs leading, aided by their rejuvenated offense, forcing Atlanta into a pass-heavy approach in the second half. Forced throws from a quarterback trying to find his rhythm against a disguised coverage scheme are a recipe for a turnover. All we need is one mistake.

 

 

Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Prop Bets: Zane Gonzalez: Over 1.5 Field Goals Made

Since signing with Atlanta in November, Zane Gonzalez has been the lone bright spot of the Falcons' special teams. He has been nearly automatic, stabilizing a position that was a disaster for Atlanta earlier in the year.

The handicap here is based on the "stalling offense" theory. The Falcons rank 27th in scoring (19.4 PPG) but move the ball reasonably well between the 20s thanks to Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. When they get into scoring range, however, drives tend to die, which creates perfect conditions for field goal props. Gonzalez has hit at least two field goals in three of his last four games. Against a "bend-don't-break" Bucs defense that often tightens up in the red zone, expect Atlanta to settle for 3 points on multiple occasions.

 

 

 

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