Every once in a while, we get shootout conditions. The key component? Bad defenses. Or at least ones dealing with injuries. This week, we get a little bit of both with the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears.

Conveniently, both of these teams are also willing to let the ball fly. Both are in the top half of the league in pass attempts per game, but the Cowboys are currently third - the same spot they ranked last year. That could make for a fun watch here for NFL fans of all kinds, but particularly those who play fantasy football or gamble.

Even if you just want to see the Cowboys vs. Bears odds and have Cowboys vs. Bears picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus! 

Cowboys vs. Bears Predictions For NFL Week 1, Sunday 4:25 PM ET

Despite being both NFC teams, these organizations have not squared off very often as of late. In fact, they have only matched up once over the last five years, in 2022. The Cowboys won that in a big-time shootout 49-29, but that was obviously before the era of Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. 

The Bears are now 0-2 on the season. They suffered a tough loss to the Vikings after a JJ McCarthy comeback, then an even tougher 52-21 beating to Ben Johnson’s former Lions. The Cowboys lost a close one in the season opener to the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, then won a close one in overtime against the Giants with the heroics of kicker Brandon Aubrey. 

 

 

 

Dallas Cowboys: All On Dak Prescott

They paid Dak Prescott the big money. They traded for wide receiver George Pickens to go along with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. They’ve gone a little thin at offensive line and running back while also trading away superstar Micah Parsons. That puts more pressure than ever on Dak Prescott, who struggled against the Eagles in Week One but got the job done last week against the Giants. 

On defense is where the Cowboys have struggled - and the issues have come on three fronts. They couldn’t work out a deal with Micah Parsons. They have had some busts, like first-round draft pick Mazi Smith. And injuries have been a problem with DaRon Bland now out, and Trevon Diggs is being ramped up slowly from a serious knee injury. At least Diggs is trending upwards from a 43% snap share in Week One to 91% last week. But it’s still a weak unit overall. 

Chicago Bears: Growing Pain For Ben Johnson

The problem you often run into as a first-time head coach is that you’re typically taking over a bad team. Outside of rare occasions like Marty Schottenheimer being fired after a 14-2 season, those guys typically keep their jobs. The offense for Ben Johnson on paper isn’t all that bad and has actually looked good to start games, but have had trouble adjusting and closing them out. 

On defense, the Bears have struggled, and injuries are a big part of that.  The secondary has been hit especially hard with Kyler Gordon being out and Jaylon Johnson missing Week One, then only playing 34% of the snaps in Week Two. That has seen them grade out dead last in pass defense DVOA so far per FTN Fantasy.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Bears Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Cowboys vs. Bears odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Bears: First Quarter Total Points Over 9.5 (-130 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

In watching the past two Bears games, it’s become increasingly obvious that Ben Johnson does a great job of scripting the first 10-15 plays. Caleb Williams, in the first quarter of these first two games, has actually completed 18 of 20 passes, which is an absurd 90%. In the other three quarters? An abysmal 49.8%. 

Somewhere there is a disconnect. Maybe Ben Johnson’s as a new head coach, is not doing a good job of mid-game adjustments. Maybe Caleb Williams gets antsy, and that’s when the sacks, interceptions, and overthrows start. Whatever it is, they have started hot before cooling off. Both defenses here are struggling, and the over/under for the game total is 50 points. I know points more points are generally scored in the second and fourth quarters, but in this case, I like the 9.5 point over/under for the first quarter here. 

 

 


 

Cowboys vs. Bears Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

HOU Cowboys

LAR Bears

 

 

 

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