The first three weeks of survivor picks in this column have all hit as we avoided the landmines. It usually isn't this simple and the Ravens improbable rally, capped by a NFL-record 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker, helped many survive. There is only one double-digit favorite this week. The Bills are 16-point favorites at home against the Texans. The next lowest line is 7.5 points, making this a more challenging week unless selecting the big favorite.
 

Here are my top survivor picks for the week.

  1. Buffalo Bills: The Bills are the obvious play in Week 4 and will be popular. They are big favorites, at home and playing a bad Texans team. Even though the Texans have extra rest after playing Thursday in Week 3, the Texans can't compete with the Bills. The Texans offense isn't as good with Davis Mills at quarterback. The Texans had 193 total yards of offense last week against the Panthers and Mills passed for 168 yards with one touchdown in his first start of the season. The Texans secondary will struggle against one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Josh Allen passed for 358 yards with four touchdowns last week against Washington.  After a slow start in a Week 1 loss to the Steelers, the Bills scored 78 points the last two weeks. The Bills have road games in November against the Jaguars and Jets and great home spots in Week 17 and 18 against the Falcons and Jets if you want to save them.
  2. Cincinnati Bengals: Who would have thought we would be taking the Bengals in a survivor pool on a Thursday night? It's a battle of the last two No. 1 overall picks with Joe Burrow against Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Bengals are coming off a road win against the Steelers and the chance of a letdown is in play, but this is more about how bad the Jaguars have been. The Bengals are -320 favorites. Burrow has played well with 640 yards, seven touchdowns and a 70.7 completion percentage. The Bengals defense is fourth in defensive DVOA. The Jaguars are 29th in offensive DVOA and 27th in defensive DVOA. Lawrence has thrown at least two interceptions in each of the first three games. The Jaguars were dominated by one of the worst teams in the NFL, losing to the Texans 37-21 in Week 1 and lost by 10 points to the Broncos and 12 to the Cardinals last week. The Bengals schedule presents few opportunities to use them in a survivor pool. This is clearly the best spot.
  3. New Orleans Saints: This is the first game the Saints will play in the Superdome this season. A hurricane forced the Saints to play a home game in Jacksonville in Week 1 against the Packers and the Saints won, 38-3. The Saints then lost in Carolina and won in New England last week. The Giants are 0-3 with a 14-point home loss to Denver before falling short by one point to Washington and losing at home to the Falcons last week, 17-14. The Giants have been held to 14 points or fewer in two of three games. The Saints defense has been excellent and has forced seven turnovers and allowed 42 points in three games. The Saints offense hasn't been good and has taken advantage of short fields. Jameis Winston hasn't topped 150 passing yards in any of the three games. The Giants are missing two offensive lineman and could be without receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.