Welcome to the Sunday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 13!

If it wasn’t for Patrick Mahomes being an MVP candidate, this game would have been flexed out of prime-time and thrown into the mix of Sunday games. I mean…the Broncos? Yeesh. Now sure, they actually have a quarterback, but this offense continues to struggle, not just for points, but for an identity. They aren’t run-first but they’re also not a high-octane passing team either. What do they do tonight? Who knows, but this Denver coaching staff is in trouble if they don’t show some signs of life.

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -13.5

O/U: 51.5

Betting Facts:

Money Line: Chiefs -770, Broncos +600

Denver is 6-5 against the spread (ATS) this season.

The total has hit the under in six of Denver's 11 games.

Kansas City is 6-5 ATS this season.

The total has hit the under in six of Kansas City's 11 games.

Weather: High 30’s, partly cloudy but no precipitation; winds NNW 3mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Chiefs lead series 5-0

Average Margin of Victory – 16.4

Last Match-Up – Chiefs beat the Broncos 43-16 in Denver on 10/25/2020

Notable Injuries:

Chiefs:

Broncos:

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Chiefs:

vs Pass: 13th

vs Run: 32nd   

Broncos:

vs Pass: 5th  

vs Run: 19th  

MVP/Captain

Patrick Mahomes , QB KC – He threw for just 200 yards and a touchdown when he faced the Broncos back in October, but since then, he’s thrown for no fewer than 348 yards in a game and has a 14:1 TD:INT in his last four games. Pretty tough not to use him in the top spot.

Tyreek Hill , WR KC – Mahomes targeted the Cheetah 10 times in their last meeting with the Broncos and Hill finished with a 6-55-1 line. The Broncos most talented corners stay on the outside, so look for Hill to keep burning slot-corner Essang Bassey all night.

Travis Kelce , TE KC – Denver ranks just 17th in DVOA against the tight end, so I expect a bigger day than he had the last time they played (3-31-0). Since that game, Kelce has seen just over 10 targets per game, three 100-yard performances and two touchdowns.

Mid-Tier

Drew Lock , QB DEN – You have to figure he’s got to be throwing heavily in this one, right? Catch-up mode? Trying to keep pace with the Chiefs offense? Doesn’t matter who’s catching, just as long as he’s throwing.

Melvin Gordon , RB DEN – The Chiefs run defense is super-soft, but they never get tested because teams routinely fall behind. But if the Broncos can establish the run early and aren’t afraid to keep handing the ball off, Gordon might be able to pad some numbers. Also working in his favor is that he’s the better pass-catcher so once the Broncos fall behind, he’ll be on the field for check-downs.

Chiefs D/ST – The Chiefs defense has 17 takeaways on the season – 12 INT, five fumble recoveries – while the Broncos actually lead the NFL in giveaways with 26. If the Chiefs defense can capitalize on a few mistakes, this should be a nice budget play for lineups.

Dart Throws

Le'Veon Bell , RB KC – Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been dealing with some sort of stomach illness and hasn’t practiced since Wednesday. He’s still expected to play, but how much of a burst is he going to have? If the Chiefs are going to have any success on the ground, it’s probably coming from Bell.

Noah Fant, TE DEN – The Chiefs may rank 11th in DVOA against the tight end, but they are allowing and average of 58.5 yards per game to them. Fant is a favorite target for Lock and he’s seeing roughly six per game, so once Denver starts airing it out, hopefully, he’s on the receiving end.

Brandon McManus , K DEN – Pat Shurmur hasn’t shown any creativity with this offense and he’s all about just taking the points. That means every time this offense stalls, McManus gets the call.