Welcome to the Sunday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 11!

Revenge is a dish best served cold, right? That’s what Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs are probably thinking as they head to Las Vegas to avenge their Week 5 loss to the Raiders. That was quite a surprise for everyone as both the bookies and Survivor pools everywhere took a big hit. Josh Jacobs rushed 23 times for 77 yards and two scores while Derek Carr threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Henry Ruggs announced his presence with authority with 118 yards and a touchdown on just two catches.

Meanwhile, Mahomes did what he could, throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns, and Travis Kelce stepped up with eight catches for 108 yards and a score. One of the problems for the Chiefs was that they fell behind and had to abandon the run as Clyde Edwards-Helaire only rushed 10 times for 40 yards and while he was targeted eight times, he only had three catches. Will Le’Veon Bell make a difference this week? We shall see…

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 56

Betting Facts:

Money Line: Chiefs -335, Riders +280

Chiefs are 6-2 against the spread in AFC games

The OVER has hit in six of the Raiders games this season

Weather: Low-to-mid 60s with clear skies; wind WSW 3-5mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Chiefs led series 4-1

Average Margin of Victory – 19.2

Last Match-Up – Raiders beat the Chiefs 40-32 in Kansas City on 10/11/2020

Notable Injuries:

Chiefs:

Raiders:

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Chiefs:

vs Pass: 7th

vs Run: 30th    

Raiders:

vs Pass: 19th  

vs Run: 26th  

Prop Bets to Watch:

The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders, Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.

  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards: 320.5 (over & under -112); TD Passes: 2.5 (over & under -112); Rushing Yards: 15.5 (over & under -112)
  • Derek Carr Passing Yards: 267.5 (over & under -112); TD Passes: 1.5 (over -155, under +123); Rushing Yards: 14.5 (over +105, under -130)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards: 47.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 19.5 (over & under -112)
  • Le'Veon Bell Rushing Yards: 23.5 (over & under -112)
  • Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards: 74.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 19.5 (over & under -112)
  • Devontae Booker Rushing Yards: 27.5 (over & under -112)
  • Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards: 75.5 (over & under -112)
  • Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards: 37.5 (over & under -112)
  • Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards: 39.5 (over & under -112)
  • Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards: 37.5 (over & under -112)
  • Hunter Renfrow Receiving Yards: 34.5 (over & under -112)
  • Henry Ruggs Receiving Yards: 36.5 (over & under -112)
  • Travis Kelce Receiving Yards: 75.5 (over & under -112)
  • Darren Waller Receiving Yards: 52.5 (over & under -112)

MVP/Captain

Patrick Mahomes , QB KC – He put up 340 yards with two scores on the Raiders the last time they met and now he’s and now he’s looking to avenge a loss? Yes, please. In the two games leading up to the bye, Mahomes averaged 394 passing yards and he threw nine touchdowns. He’s well-rested with the extra week off and should be firing bullets all game long.

Tyreek Hill , WR KC – I have a tough time believing Raiders slot corner Lamarcus Joyner can stay with the Cheetah, let alone shut him down. Vegas ranks 27th in the league against teams’ opposing WR1, allowing just over 80 yards per game to them.

Josh Jacobs , RB LV – The Raiders know that they have to be successful running the ball if they’re going to beat the Chiefs. Keeping Mahomes off the field is priority one. Jacobs has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games and two 100-yard efforts in his last three. Expect him to get the carries early and often.

Mid-Tier

Travis Kelce , TE KC – He dominated the Raiders in their last meeting and he’s coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts in which he saw 12 targets in each game. He was targeted 12 times the last time they met as well, so expect him to keep this momentum rolling and have another strong game.

Derek Carr , QB LV – He’s been quiet as of late, failing to throw for more than 165 yards in any of his last three games, but if the Raiders are going to win this game or, at the least, keep pace with the Chiefs, Carr is going to have to sling the rock like he did the last time these teams squared off.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC – He wasn’t much of a factor last time they faced as the game flow took away the run from the Chiefs. But with the Raiders struggling against the run lately, allowing 112.7 rushing yards per game on the year, CEH could get some early work in and, if he can break a big run or two, could have a big day. Let’s also not forget the Raiders have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns on the year.

Darren Waller , TE LV – He’s averaging 8.6 targets per game this season and that leads the way for the Raiders pass-catchers. We’ve only seen one 100-yard game from him but he does have three touchdowns in his last five games. If Carr starts throwing heavy, Waller is the guy who helps him move the chains.

Dart Throws

Demarcus Robinson /Mecole Hardman, WR KC – It’s a favorable match-up for both receivers and with Sammy Watkins out, both should see a heavy snap count and ample targets. The lean is towards Robinson more, but if Mahomes starts throwing heavy, both can find the end zone.

Nelson Agholor , WR LV – It’s not a great match-up on paper for Agholor, but Carr continues to lock in on him for most of his downfield throws. He’s got five touchdowns on the season and four in his last six. He’s been boom or bust lately, but that’s what these showdown slates are all about.

Anthony Sherman , FB KC – His nickname is “The Sausage,” and the Chiefs broadcasters haven’t had the chance to say, “It’s sausages for everyone in the sweet nectar of the end zone,” yet this season. Josh Wagner, producer at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio says it happens now and I’m, inclined to believe him.