Welcome to the NFL Week 2 Best Bets and Prop Bets article. Last week I just posted my picks in the Fantasy Alarm Discord channel, but this week you get a full-blown article. Not sure there’s going to be much in the way of an actual article, but I will give you a few insights as to why I am betting the way I am betting this week. You can also catch me every Friday on the Bettor Sports Betting Show with Dan Servodidio. I give out a lot of my picks and leans there, but these are the final selections. Last week I went 9-1 between the show and the picks in Discord, so we are already playing with house money. That doesn’t mean anything with regard to how I bet. It is still early in the season and we still have a ton of data to collect. But it sure as heck feels good to start out a winner.

Let’s get to my picks for this week.

 

 

NFL Week 2 Best Bets

Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills

The spread has stayed pretty consistent with the Bills favored by nine, but the other day it looked like some money was coming in on the Raiders and dropped it to 8.5. I was ready to bet it at nine anyway, so the fact that it popped back up doesn’t affect my thinking at all. If it starts to pup up to 9.5 or 10 then you may want to think it over, but as it is right now, I’m feeling good about a big home-game rebound for Josh Allen and company.

Pick: Bills -9 (-108)

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Last year, the Chiefs not only saw a much bigger spread, but they also covered it with ease; both times. This year the Jaguars are getting a boatload more respect and rightfully so. Calvin Ridley gives Trevor Lawrence a bona fide No. 1 receiver and both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones serve as fantastic complements. The Chiefs defense gets a boost with Chris Jones back on the field, but their secondary is going to be heavily tested. I talked about this game on the Bettor Sports Betting Show, in that I like the Chiefs to win, but this extra half-point the Jags are getting in a potential shootout makes me awfully nervous when betting against the spread.

Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-115)

Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos

Another one I’ve mentioned before as I am betting it according to the percentages. Teams do not play well in Denver this early in the season because they are not used to the altitude and their conditioning is not in mid-season form. Over the last 10 years, the Broncos are 11-6-3 against the spread at home in September and over the last five years, they are 4-3 ATS. I will give it the Raiders who won outright last week, but that’s because it’s a divisional game and they’re used to games in Denver. If the Broncos are just over .500 over the last five seasons and that far ahead over the last 10, I am going to put my faith in Sean Payton, Joe Lombardi and Russell Wilson and expect them to win and cover.

Pick: Broncos -3.5 (-110)

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**all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook