How Second-Year QBs Historically Perform in Fantasy

The sophomore season is a big one for quarterbacks, no matter how they’re rookie season went. Coaches and defenses now have a full year of tape to review, allowing them to better prepare. The quarterbacks need to continue to grow. Some can rise to the occasion, some struggle to meet expectations, and we have plenty of examples on both ends. Making it even harder to project, oftentimes it's due to the circumstances around them. 

C.J. Stroud was a revelation as a rookie, but struggled to repeat it behind a poor offensive line and injuries to his pass catchers. Jared Goff had as bad a rookie season as you could have, but was fantastic as a sophomore with Sean McVay in town. With this in mind, let’s look at some of the second-year quarterbacks potentially primed for a breakout.

 

 

 

Top Second-Year Breakout Candidates

Jayden Daniels, QB Washington Commanders

Few rookies have ever made the impact that Jayden Daniels did as a rookie in 2024. From the moment he stepped on an NFL field, Daniels looked comfortable and poised. Daniels' calling card coming into the NFL was his top-notch running ability, which he used to great effect. Daniels ran for nearly 900 yards and five touchdowns for the season. Even better, Daniels was a proficient passer immediately. On the year, Daniels threw for over 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns on a 5.2% touchdown percentage while completing 69% of his passes. For the year, Daniels scored 21.5 PPG, finishing fifth at the position. This offseason, the Commanders traded for Deebo Samuel to add another weapon and Laremy Tunsil to be his new left tackle. 

Bo Nix, QB Denver Broncos

Bo Nix surprised many in 2024. Despite his high draft capital, Nix wasn’t beloved as a prospect. His long college career and troublesome method of production gave most of us pause on his potential. Nix turned out to be a perfect fit for Sean Payton’s offense, though, and he produced quite well. For the season, Nix averaged 19.4 PPG while passing for 29 touchdowns and over 3,700 yards. Nix also added as a runner with over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Broncos already have a great offensive line, and then they spent this offseason trying to add more weapons around Nix. He’s got a new running back duo in RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins. Also, the Broncos added Evan Engram at tight end and drafted Pat Bryant to add more depth to the wide receiver room.

J.J. McCarthy, QB Minnesota Vikings

Expectations were high for J.J. McCarthy after he was drafted tenth overall by the Vikings. Unfortunately, during his first and only preseason game, McCarthy tore his meniscus and was lost for the entire season. In that short time, we did get to see some of what made him a highly thought-of prospect. McCarthy has true NFL arm talent, capable of making every throw. He’s especially proficient at throwing across the middle of the field, an area that even some NFL veterans struggle with. He also has underrated athleticism and is a willing scrambler. McCarthy is now fully healthy and looking to play well in his first bit of real action. The Vikings have set up that every quarterback dreams of with great weapons, a top offensive line, and a fantasy-friendly system.

Michael Penix, QB Atlanta Falcons

We didn’t get to see much of Michael Penix as a rookie after being drafted 8th overall by the Falcons. With Kirk Cousins signing a hefty contract to start the offseason, he was their day one starter and played for most of the season. What little we saw from Penix Jr. in his three-game stint was inspiring, though. Penix Jr.’s arm and downfield attacking nature were on full display. He’s capable of making every throw and is especially proficient on deep passes. The Falcons spent this offseason trying to shore up their defense with the offense already well in place. The big difference for Penix Jr. is that he’s been able to spend the entire offseason with QB1 reps. With more reps, Penix can continue to build his rapport with his pass catchers.

 

 


 

Risks and Growing Pains to Watch For

  • Jayden Daniels - It’s hard to come up with any reasons to be fearful of Daniel’s sophomore season. The one issue he could encounter is that the Commanders won't be so liberal with his usage near the goal line when they’re thinking about the playoffs.
  • Bo Nix - The worry for Nix is what if he’s already at his ceiling? Due to his long time in college, he was expected to be NFL-ready, but maybe he couldn’t grow past his current self. If he doesn’t take a step up, he might not be worth his cost.
  • J.J. McCarthy - This is essentially McCarthy’s rookie year. We can have faith in who he was as a prospect and the Vikings' system. We don’t know if he’ll be good in the NFL, though. All we have is projection.
  • Michael Penix - Despite being an athletic quarterback, Penix Jr. does not run, mostly due to his long injury history. Pocket quarterbacks need to be highly efficient to pay off. If Penix can’t be one of the best passers in the league, his ceiling isn’t very high.

 

 

 

Draft Strategy for Second-Year Quarterbacks

The good news for if you’re interested in one of these quarterbacks, you don’t have to pick between them based on their costs. In one quarterback leagues, Jayden Daniels will be drafted within the first four rounds with the other elites, Bo Nix will be a middle round pick as a mid to low-end QB1, while J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix will be end-of-the-draft picks. This makes it so that instead of feeling the need to target one at their ADP, you can see if one falls past their ADP and attack. 

Drafts are already happening, and there are plenty more to come. Understanding which quarterbacks are poised for success and how to draft them is vital to your fantasy football season. 

 

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