Fantasy Football Draft Guide 2025: AFC South Coaches & Their NFL Systems

Welcome to the NFL Coaching Systems for the AFC South. If this is your first time studying NFL coaching systems for fantasy football purposes, you’re in for a real treat. Having worked with many subscribers in helping them understand the traditional X's and O’s of football and how it relates to the fantasy game, I have enjoyed watching so many blossom into successful players over the years.

It is important to realize that building a winning fantasy team is more than just following a fantasy football rankings list and drafting the name that sits at the highest. This is why we promote things like drafting with our Dynamic Tiers rankings and implementing those strategies in fantasy football mock drafts. Testing the method is just as important as the method itself.

The easiest way to explain the importance of learning each team’s system is to show examples of how square pegs don’t fit into round holes. Last season, we championed drafting Saquon Barkley at all costs because he was the ideal running back for Kellen Moore's system while warning anyone who would listen that Rachaad White would be a bust without the volume Dave Canales once provided him with in Tampa Bay. Barkley's historic season was beyond fun to watch. Those who didn’t heed the warning on White suffered greatly as their second-round pick went belly-up in favor of Bucky Irving.

You can have the most talented player in the world in an NFL system that doesn’t showcase his strengths or abilities, and 99 times out of 100, he’s going to disappoint. The same goes for a mediocre player in a system that highlights his best attributes. If he fits the coach’s scheme, he has a much greater chance of being a top performer.

This article series covers each division, so if your favorite team is here in the AFC South and you’re reading this first, you might want to open up the glossary of terms found in the AFC East article and keep it handy for easy reference!

2025 Fantasy Football: AFC South NFL Coaching Systems

Houston Texans

Texans Offensive Breakdown

This is going to be quite the season for the Texans' offense for two very big reasons. The first is the change at offensive coordinator as former Patriots and Rams TE coach Nick Caley takes over for Bobby Slowik, and the second is because Caley says he doesn’t have a set offensive scheme. Whaaaaat? Come on.

While we expect there to be a West Coast base, given his recent time spent working with Sean McVay, Caley is telling everyone that he is going to scheme game by game, depending on the opposing team’s strengths and weaknesses. Considering football and the fantasy game are match-up based, this could be a good thing; however, as we’ve seen in years past, that can backfire if you don’t have something specific to fall back on if you are winning. The plan to not have a plan still counts as a plan, and as Mike Tyson once said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

So let’s start with what we know, and that begins with quarterback C.J. Stroud. According to all reports and investigations, Stroud is expected to have full autonomy at the line of scrimmage. It will be up to him to properly read the defense, and from there, he will have full rein to call any play in the playbook. On one hand, that’s a quarterback’s dream, but that also means he needs everyone on that field to read and react in full lock-step. It also means that a quarterback who regressed last year will shoulder the full blame if things go awry.

The ground game also looks very intriguing, provided the Texans do exactly what they did late in the season and use a power/gap blocking scheme. The hiring of Cole Popovich as their new offensive line coach tells us that is precisely what they will do. Last season, Joe Mixon struggled in Slowik’s outside zone scheme, but down the stretch, when they pivoted to more power/gap runs, things really started to take shape. Mixon was dominant, as was Dameon Pierce when he touched the ball. With Mixon on the mend from an ankle issue, the Texans brought in Nick Chubb, who, if healthy, should also find tremendous success in this blocking scheme.

And then finally, the passing attack. We should see plenty of short, high-percentage throws to help move the chains, which, along with the run, should set up strong play-action and downfield work. Stroud has an array of options, and that is precisely what the Texans want with their apparent scheme versatility. Nico Collins is the primary and remains a late first-round pick in fantasy, but then the rest of the receiving corps is kind of all over the place. Christian Kirk was brought in to work the slot. They drafted Jayden Higgins, who profiles like Collins, then they took his Iowa State teammate in Jaylin Noel, and these guys will be joining a group that still has John Metchie, Justin Watson, and fellow Hawkeye Xavier Hutchinson. We’re probably not going to be so bullish on the TE position given this arsenal of weapons.

Investing in any of the receivers comes with risk. Higgins probably has the most upside of the group, but sorting through the rest will be tough. My guess is that a number of these guys will run hot and cold from week to week, so perhaps they’re better left to the waiver wire until you can sort through the direct match-ups.

• Best Fits for the System: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
• Worst Fits for the System: John Metchie, Laken Tomlinson

Texans Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-2-5 with multi-front looks
• Secondary:  Cover-3 Zone and Cover-1 Man
  • Man Coverage: 28.7% (16^th)
  • Zone Coverage: 68.9% (16^th)

While Matt Burke is in his fourth season as the Texans' defensive coordinator and is the play-caller, remember that this is DeMeco Ryan’s system, and the most important aspect is the defensive line. The Texans use a four-man front and usually drop seven back into coverage, so that means the pass-rush and the initial line of defense against the run are in their hands. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter handle the outside work, while they’ve employed some pretty large bodies to clog the middle in Tom Settle and Sheldon Rankins. Because the rest of the defense is falling back into coverage, this is not a blitz-heavy team at all, though they still find plenty of ways to get to the quarterback.

In the secondary, you can expect more Cover-3 than anything else, and they’ll offer up different looks throughout the game, including a lot of single-high safety looks to lure the quarterback into thinking there’s less coverage than there actually is. Bringing in C.J. Gardner-Johnson provides a strong veteran presence, and using Jalen Pitre in a hybrid cornerback/safety role can create a lot of confusion for opposing quarterbacks. Add in the extra coverage from the linebackers, and the Texans are solid against the pass, so long as that defensive line is doing its job and they aren’t being gouged by the run.

• Best Fits for the System: Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Jalen Pitre
• Worst Fits for the System: Darrell Taylor, Derek Barnett

Indianapolis Colts

Colts Offensive Breakdown

This is the third year together for head coach Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter, but every year so far, Anthony Richardson has pulled the rug out from under them with injuries and poor passing skills. We can probably blame them for not having a similar quarterback as the back-up which forced them into changing the scheme and/or trying to jam a square peg into a round hole, but this season, it appears to be different as Daniel Jones is now on the roster and he is at least capable of running a high-powered offense that likes to live by the RPO.

Who will be under center is actually still a question mark heading into training camp, and while the fantasy football ADP has Anthony Richardson going ahead of Jones, it sounds like the shoulder issues are going to keep him out longer than expected, and Jones could/should be the starter come Week 1. In fact, this could actually benefit not just the Colts but fantasy owners as well, given that Jones is actually the better passer.

Diving into the actual scheme, let’s start with the passing first because we know the Colts like the power run, we know who Jonathan Taylor is, and we know they’ll use the run to set up the pass. So, where we need to focus, in an effort to maximize our fantasy choices, is the passing game, especially when most of the RPO work is run with the intent to throw the football. This is an Air Coryell system, and that means a lot of vertical routes to push the ball downfield. When RPO plays are called, the hope is that the threat of the run will freeze the linebackers and open the field more for the receivers. If the linebackers don’t bite, the quarterback either pitches it back to Taylor or runs it himself. Now that the team doesn’t have to alter the scheme because Richardson is hurt, we should see this offense as it was originally intended. 

As for the rushing attack, the Colts run a variety of plays in a variety of different formations. They will switch back-and-forth between power/gap blocking and zone, though typically you will see them use zone primarily when they go to the outside. Taylor has the speed to get beyond the tackles and push up the field, but he is actually more efficient (5.2 YPC vs 4.4 YPC) when he is running north/south in a power formation. 

Overall, this is an offense that has lots of untapped potential and could be a surprisingly potent one for fantasy owners. Taylor is a stud and is coming in as a strong value in the second round, and if Daniel Jones leads this offense, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren could be strong value picks as well. All of them have ADPs that fall well below where everyone is looking. The only one who has some question marks would be Josh Downs, who might see fewer targets than expected as the Colts continue to look further downfield than the routes being run out of the slot.

• Best Fits for the System: Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren
• Worst Fits for the System: Adonai Mitchell

Colts Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-3 with multi-front looks
• Secondary: Cover-1 Man
  • Man Coverage: 18.2% (32^nd)
  • Zone Coverage: 80.4% (4^th)

The addition of new offensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is going to be big for the Colts. He was the fall-guy in Cincinnati when management refused to shoulder the blame for so many lost free agents and such a downward spiral for their defensive personnel. So, their loss is Indianapolis’ gain, and this defense is about to have its prominence restored.

You can expect this unit to be versatile with plenty of multi-front looks and to be strong against the run. Having guys like Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner clogging up the middle of the defensive line is going to enable Anarumo, who isn’t really a big blitz guy, to get creative with his edge rushers and linebackers, be able to handle any outside zone rushing, and disguise where the pressure is actually going to come from. 

The secondary is likely where we see the biggest impact, as Anarumo, a former defensive backs coach, is considered one of the best at developing young corners. You can expect to see a lot of man-coverage, which is going to be a major change from the heavy Cover-3 work from last season, but bringing in a guy like Charvarius Ward will help the transition. The Colts will use a lot of press-man coverage on the outside to slow down the receivers and give the pass-rushers more time to get to the quarterback, and it will also help free up the safeties to either come in to stop the run or blanket the middle of the field.

• Best Fits for the System: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Charvarius Ward
• Worst Fits for the System: JuJu Brents, Nick Cross

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Offensive Breakdown

It’s another new era for the Jaguars, but this time we’re getting one of the hottest new names to officially join the head coaching ranks in Liam Coen. Hailing from the Sean McVay coaching tree, Coen was one of the most highly-coveted names on the market after leading the Buccaneers to another NFC South title and helping Baker Mayfield to a career-best season in which he threw for 4,500 yards and a whopping 41 touchdowns. In fact, it is Coen’s work with Mayfield that lends so much promise here in Jacksonville. Is he truly a quarterback whisperer, and can he do the same for Trevor Lawrence that he did with Mayfield?

Coen’s offense is West Coast-based just like McVay’s, though it will be curious to see if he installs more vertical routes like he did during his earlier times with the Rams and at the University of Kentucky. He didn’t last year in Tampa as Mayfield ranked 25^th in deep-pass rate, but with field-stretcher Dyami Brown joining Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, we could see more vertical routes used at times. Either way, Coen is going to spread the field out a lot more than the Jags have done in the past, as he ran 11-personnel (three-receiver sets) 71.2 percent of the time and was fifth in the league using sets of four receivers or more.

But that’s not to say they’re a pass-happy team who won’t run the football, because as we all watched with the rise of Bucky Irving. Coen knows he needs to establish the run to open up the passing attack, so he brought in Grant Udinski to serve as his offensive coordinator and Shaun Sarrett as his offensive line coach. Both come from Minnesota, where they worked under Kevin O’Connell, another McVay disciple. 

They will install more of a wide-zone blocking scheme, which means the offensive line will move laterally to push the runner towards the sideline. This should favor Travis Etienne and rookie Bhayshul Tuten, given their speed as the wide zone leaves them the option to either take it all the way to the outside and cut up the field or cut back towards the middle if the defense over-pursues. That’s not to say Tank Bigsby won’t get a legitimate shot to stake his claim as the guy who wants most efficiently for the Jags last year, but speed, not power, is the name of the game.

Overall, we will see plenty of similarities to what we saw Coen do in Tampa Bay last year. This should be a slow-paced offense that methodically moves down the field with a strong mix of rushing and receiving. Brian Thomas should feast in this scheme with an increase in snaps out of the slot, and this offense should remain extremely competitive.   

• Best Fits for the System: Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten, Brian Thomas
• Worst Fits for the System: Tank Bigsby, Brenton Strange

Jaguars Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 4-3 with multi-front looks
• Secondary: 2-High Match Zone
  • Man Coverage: 43.3% (2^nd)
  • Zone Coverage: 54.0% (30^th)

This is where the rubber meets the road for the Jaguars' defense as Anthony Campanile gets to show everyone that the scheme really does matter. The Jaguars boast multiple first-round picks on the defensive line, yet they were one of the lowest-ranked teams when it came to points allowed, yards allowed, pressures, and sacks. There is just too much talent here for that, so Campanile is expected to have them fired up and playing a fast, physical attack up front. The 4-3 formation is just a base right now, but we expect to see multi-front looks, depending on how well DaVon Hamilton and Arik Armstead handle the run up the middle. You won’t see a ton of blitzing, but you will see plenty of movement up front to confuse the offensive lineman about their assignments.

In the secondary, we can expect a match zone, which is just another way to say it’s a mix of both man and zone coverage. You’ll see man coverage on the outside from the corners while the two high safeties patrol the middle of the field. Interestingly enough, Campanile likes the two high safeties, but they are pulled in a little closer towards the line of scrimmage. It still takes away the deep shots downfield, but it can also help take away some of the intermediate routes as well. Overall, it’s a work-in-progress, but should have some very interesting elements we expect the Jags to perfect as the seasons roll on.

• Best Fits for the System: Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen
• Worst Fits for the System: Jarrian Jones

Tennessee Titans

Titans Offensive Breakdown

Did someone call do-over? Because that’s exactly what the Titans are getting here in Year 2 of the Brian Callahan era. There was plenty of excitement when he left the Bengals to take the reins in Tennessee, but the lackluster play of rookie quarterback Will Levis threw a big ol’ dirty monkey wrench into the mix. The scheme was fine. The execution was not, and now the team will start over with 2025 No. 1 pick Cameron Ward under center.

Callahan runs a West Coast-style offense that uses the pass to set up the run. You will see a ton of short, high-percentage passes designed to do two things -- move the chains up and down the field and build Ward’s confidence as an NF passer. You’ll see a variety of formations and personnel packages as well as a lot of pre-snap motion to keep the defense guessing, but overall, there is a nice simplicity to this offense that can be both effective and easy to run. 

Bringing in Tyler Lockett to join Calvin Ridley should keep defenses busy as both guys can thrive working on the outside and in the slot. They also brought in undrafted free agent Xavier Restrepo, who was Ward’s slot receiver at Miami. This should not only enable Callahan to move his receivers all over the field, but also build a nice attack over the middle of the field while, again, building Ward’s confidence.

You will also see a lot of play-action because Callahan also knows how to run the football. Fantasy owners will be disappointed to hear all the talk of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears in a 50/50 split, but this should keep fresh legs on the field regularly, offer another receiving option while not tipping their hand based on personnel changes. However, one major change you will see from last year is the blocking scheme. 

Callahan brought in his father, Bill, a legendary offensive line coach who was with the Browns, and he is revamping the line after his evaluation showed the Titans' ground attack was much more successful in power/gap than they were in zone. Surprisingly, Pollard averaged 4.72 yards per carry (YPC) on power/gap runs and just 3.28 YPC on zone runs. So, the elder Callahan helped recruit free agents Kevin Zeitler and Dan Moore, two linemen who know how to push around the defense. 

We already know how successful Callahan’s offense ran in Cincinnati. Obviously, Ward is not Joe Burrow, and Ridley is not Ja'Marr Chase, but if Ward proves to be even just a capable signal-caller, this offense has the potential to take off. Pollard and Ridley are the only ones who have high ADP numbers, so keep tabs on Lockett and tight end Chig Okonkwo as both could be surprising assets further into the season.

• Best Fits for the System: Cameron Ward, Tony Pollard, Chig Okonkwo
• Worst Fits for the System: Van Jefferson, Chimere Dike

Titans Defensive Breakdown

• Defensive Front: 3-4 base with multi-front looks
• Secondary: 2-High Zone, Cover-3 and Cover-4 Mix
  • Man Coverage: 24.6% (21^st)
  • Zone Coverage: 74.8% (10^th)

While the defense isn’t technically getting the same do-over as the offense, there were definitely things that needed to be revamped, as they allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and sixth-most rushing touchdowns, despite having one of the strongest groups of run-stoppers on the defensive line. Once teams learned they couldn’t run it up the guy, they pivoted to the outside, and the Titans linebackers lacked the speed and stretch to stop them. Thus, the Titans brought in free agents Dre'Mont Jones and Cody Barton while also drafting Oladejo Oluwafemi, which should certainly rectify the problem.

Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson did a masterful job revamping the Titans' secondary last year, and they come in with a lot of promise once again. Fingers crossed that L’Jarius Sneed stays healthy because losing him for six games was brutal, though they still managed to give up the second-fewest passing yards. Sneed is tasked with shutting down the opposition’s top weapon, and that enables the rest of the defensive backs to fall into some more zone work, predominantly two-high safeties in Cover-3 or Cover-4. They will mix in some man-coverage, and Wilson does like to use press-man coverage on the outside as a way to intimidate and affect the timing of the receivers.  

• Best Fits for the System: Jeffery Simmons, Cody Barton, L’Jarius Sneed
• Worst Fits for the System: Arden Key, Jarvis Brownlee

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