NFL Playoff 2026: One and Done Playoffs - Conference Championship Update

Four teams left. That’s it. And that drastically changes our one-and-done strategy. What kind of players do you have left? What play are you in? Do you expect big upsets? All that comes into play with your second-to-last lineup of the contest.

And with that, we throw out some of the advice from the earlier articles. Now you are more likely forced to make some fairly specific predictions about what happens next. And, if you get it just right, you can potentially flip the table on your whole league. So here we go. 

OTHER PLAYOFF FORMAT ADVICE: 

Playoff Best Ball Tips and Rankings

FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy and Expert Advice

The Basic Rules For One & Done Playoff Contests

The idea is simple, but it doesn’t hurt to hit the basics quickly. For leagues like FFPC, you are picking one lineup and riding that out for the duration of the playoffs. Here, we are picking a new lineup each week. 

This applies to sites like MFL.com, RTSports, or tournaments like Rob Norton’s Baby Bowl (if you aren’t in that one, simply message Rob Norton on Twitter telling him you want in, make a donation, and you’re in!) The twist, of course, is that, once you use a player, you can’t use him again. 

So, if you use Josh Allen in Wild Card weekend, then he goes to the Super Bowl, you better hope you have the other quarterback left playing in that game.

Building A Winning One & Done Playoff Contest Strategy

Our strategy is going to be a combination of three things. Playing the odds, playing the matchups, and game theory.

If you create a narrative and things break just right for you, you can take it home. Let’s get into it. 

Playing The Odds When Building One & Done Lineups

With only four teams left, the odds are getting tighter and tighter. Even the Broncos are only underdogs by 4.5 points despite not having their starting quarterback. All tournament long, we’ve been playing the odds and trying to utilize good players from teams we think will lose. And, to some degree, that doesn’t change. But, more than ever, you need to make a call here and stick with it.

This is where it really matters, or not whether you are currently in the lead in the tournament or playing from behind. Depending on your platform or format, you might not even know. But the general rule of thumb for me is that, if you are in the lead, you keep playing the “chalk” way if you are a favorite (e.g., save players from the Super Bowl favorites and perhaps play a more obvious or popular lineup). And, if you are playing from behind, lean into the uniqueness theory below. 

Playing The Matchups When Building One & Done Lineups

We still will want to play the matchups wherever possible. For instance, last week we avoided guys like Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and Jake Tonges at tight end because we didn’t like their matchups. We may not have the luxury to do that now, but we still want to factor that in whenever possible. For instance, if you have other options, it might not be the best week to run Courtland Sutton up against Christian Gonzalez. Sutton has played 84% of his snaps split out wide this year, so he doesn’t really hide in the slot that often - they are on a collision course.

We also want to look at the potential matchups for NEXT week. That is crucial game theory to this contest, and we’ll discuss that below under the Super Bowl Theory section.

Game Theory For NFL Playoff One & Done Contests

There are a number of different ways to use game theory to gain leverage. So let’s lay them out.

Positional Game Theory

This is more crucial than ever, especially at quarterback, tight end, kicker, and defense. If you played the way we’ve been playing, you picked on a conference for kicker and defense in the early rounds and leaned into that. For instance, in our example lineups, we use NFC kickers and AFC defenses. On defense, we leaned into AFC defenses while saving the Rams and Seahawks - no matter who wins, we will have one next week. At kicker we tried something similar with NFC kickers, but the teams for the kickers we picked kept winning. So now we are forced to choose. 

It’s not that simple at quarterback. Yes, you can continue the “conference game plan” if you saved guys. But you may need to lean into your predictions now and buck the trend - as we will discuss below in Uniqueness Theory. I’ll give a good example of that below when we get to my example lineup. 

Super Bowl Theory

You don’t HAVE to predict the Super Bowl to consider game theory for next week. Let’s take the two AFC teams, for instance. Both have an elite corner who plays primarily on the outside in Christian Gonzalez and Patrick Surtain. That matches them up with the split end often. So, regardless of who wins, the Super Bowl will see a tough matchup for NFC split ends.

Davante Adams plays pretty exclusively out wide with less than 100 snaps out of the slot on the season. I already used Adams in last week’s example lineup for this exercise, so I don’t have him available. But I would implore folks out there to use Davante Adams this week if you still have him, as, barring injury, he is certain to face a tough matchup next week. 

Team Game Theory

We NEED viable pieces at our disposal. And there are still teams that are deeper than others at certain positions. The Panthers have two great WRs and two viable RBs. So do the Patriots. You can still potentially balance things out here and keep an optimal run out. For instance, if you saved both Rams WRs and Davante Adams goes off this week, then Puka Nacua goes off next week (when Adams has a tougher matchup), you are golden. 

Uniqueness Game Theory

Anything can happen. That is a fact. Earlier this year, I watched Davis Mills outscore Josh Allen in fantasy head-to-head on Thursday Night Football. For all we know, the score of the Rams could beat the Seahawks 9-6, and the Broncos could beat the Patriots 30-3. Do the odds favor that? No. But it absolutely could happen. And, if you are WAY behind, maybe that’s the kind of miracle you need.

So, if you found yourself in a deep hole, it’s time to get VERY specific. What outcome would not only help you but hurt as many of your competitors as possible? For example, more times are likely to have used Matthew Stafford because he’s a good quarterback. Very few will be using Jarrett Stidham. If you use Jarrett Stidham this week and he goes off, then the Seahawks win, you might be able to use Matthew Stafford next week while many of the other teams are forced to use Stidham. That could help you claw back into this fight. 

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Weekend Example Lineup

Here is last week’s example lineup. I’m going to continue based on the players I have personally used, but there is an updated grid at the bottom to make your own decisions. 

• QB: Bo Nix
• RB: Rhamondre Stevenson
• RB: RJ Harvey
• WR: Davante Adams
• WR: DJ Moore
• TE: Colston Loveland
• FLEX: Christian Kirk
• DST: New England Patriots
• K: Jason Myers

Divisional Round Example Lineup

• QB: Matthew Stafford

We are doing alright in the Fantasy Alarm One & Done contest on RT Sports. But we are still playing from behind. If we were frontrunners here, we’d probably stick with the plan of using Drake Maye, then whoever advances from the NFC quarterbacks. But we are in a position where we don’t need to be desperate and use Jarrett Stidham, but we do need to try to be a little unique and exactly right. So we use Stafford here, hoping the Rams lose, then we’ll have all three other QBs to choose from next week based on who the other teams may have left. 

• RB: Blake Corum

We already used Kyren Williams. And the new direction of our strategy is based on the Rams losing in a high-scoring game. So we’re going to use Blake Corum here and hope he can find paydirt in a loss this week. 

• RB: J.K. Dobbins

EDIT - JK Dobbins has been ruled out so we are using George Holani

We are in a spot in the standings where we almost need to be exactly right. And we need a little bit of help. So the important thing for us is to save a really good lineup for the Super Bowl, where, hopefully, others won’t have many viable players left. So we are keeping Kenneth Walker and TreVeyon Henderson in our back pocket. The hope here is that JK Dobbins manages to be a full go, and he gets a big chunk of the workload. If Dobbins doesn’t go, we will use George Holani, who was recently just cleared to play, and hope they deploy him as a discount version of Zach Charbonnet, where we can maybe vulture a TD - or two. 

• WR: Puka Nacua

We want to make it clear that we would use Davante Adams and save Puka Nacua in a neutral situation or one playing from the lead. But, on this example journey we have created, we are playing from behind a bit. Not a ton, but a bit. So we’re leaning into one bet - that the Rams lose. And, despite common sentiment, they are underdogs after all. If the Rams lose a hard-fought battle and the Seahawks advance, we have Jaxon Smith-Njigba for next week. If the Rams win, we are cooked, but we have to give ourselves a shot at winning. 

• WR: Stefon Diggs

We don’t like the matchup for Courtland Sutton, as we already explained. Nor do we like the matchup for Kayshon Boutte, who has played 96% of his snaps out wide, where Pat Surtain lives. Whichever team wins, we will very likely use that player next week alongside our hypothetical JSN. This week, we will use Diggs out of the slot, where he’s run more than half his routes. 

• TE: AJ Barner

There are basically two options we like at tight end. We don’t love running tight ends up against Julian Love and Nick Emanwori. So we don’t like Colby Parkinson. But we could go contrarian with the high aDot Terrance Ferguson. Instead, though, we will use AJ Barner, who has been the top TE for Seattle and could sneak a touchdown. There have been times he’s been asked to stay in and block on some pass plays, but they didn’t really do that in either Rams game. In fact, he had 10 targets in one of those games. Next week, we will use Hunter Henry or Evan Engram if need be (since we are in trouble if the Rams win). 

• FLEX: Pat Bryant 

You can use any one of Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, or Pat Bryant. Mims gets a lot of screens, which makes him useful in full PPR, plus they could simplify things for Stidham. But Bryant to me is both the contrarian and upside play. He’s a much better blocker than the other two, which is why he started to separate himself as the WR2 opposite Sutton. If he clears protocol, he could be going up against Carlton Davis, who is a very boom/bust player. 

• DST: Denver Broncos

If you have the New England Patriots, use them against Stidham. We used them last week against C.J. Stroud, so we are using the Broncos and keeping the Rams and Seahawks in our back pocket. Our strategy is based on us getting a shootout there, so the defenses don’t make much sense to us anyway. 

• K: Wil Lutz

We tried to plan this out as we did with kicker and use NFC kickers early, then AFC ones later. But we messed that up as we used Harrison Mevis early and then Jason Meyers last week, and now they are facing each other. The ideal play would have been Cairo Santos. Now we need to basically pick the winner this week, and we are picking New England, so we use Lutz. 

Rankings Grid

Here is a depth chart that incorporates as many of these thoughts as possible. Now that we are deep into the playoffs, the color-coding is based more on the immediate matchups at hand rather than projecting out multiple games like we had to do previously.