We turn the page to Week 6 after coming off a very successful Week 5. We once again have another 10-game main slate to work with. The difference this week is that we do not have two value D/ST’s listed as favorites on the Vegas sportsbooks. We only have two teams on Bye, but those two teams are the Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings. Both teams feature playmakers on defense who love to blitz at high rates.

We also have another Monday Night Football doubleheader in addition to a Sunday morning NFL London game. So we dig into the short slate once again, and we should be excited about this opportunity. We targeted the right plays a week ago and look to run it back for the second Sunday in October. Let’s take a look at the NFL DFS Week 6 D/ST Coach!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 6 D/ST Coach for FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy

Last week’s top-tier teams (the Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions) didn’t provide the biggest ceilings. The floors were fine, but our bread-and-butter D/ST’s were found in the mid-tier. Our beloved Indianapolis Colts returned 17 fantasy points on DraftKings, while our value D/ST recommendation, the New Orleans Saints, returned 18 fantasy points.

The Play of the Week was serviceable. The Houston Texans were priced similarly to the Saints but returned 11 fantasy points. That’s normally a number where we can do a victory lap with a cheap D/ST. However, in comparison to the Saints, it looks like I may have had the wrong $2,400 D/ST as the Play of the Week.

NFL Week 6 Defense/Special Teams

This week delivers another 10-game main slate as we highlighted at the top of the article. For last week’s article, we went with five D/ST recommendations. I’m going with six this week and once again think we can hit our stride with a D/ST in the mid-range that can provide a GPP-winning return.

It’s a bit more difficult without having the Texans or Vikings on this slate. Targeting their blitz rates makes playing a D/ST rather easy. And with the more aggressive positional pricing for Week 6, we may not be able to squeeze in the two most expensive D/ST’s on the slate.

We only have two games on the main slate with implied totals under 42 points. So those games will be trendy targets for cash games and tournaments. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore other matchups, as we have some tempting favorites to consider. Let’s take a look at the latest cash and GPP recommendations as part of the NFL DFS Week 6 D/ST Coach!

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks for Week 6

Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,000

The Packers are the most expensive defense on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and they’re fresh off their Bye week, plus they’re playing at home. The last time we saw the Packers, they played to a 40-40 tie against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Before that, this defense allowed a total of 44 points to their previous opponents in Weeks 1-3.

The Cincinnati Bengals traded for Joe Flacco earlier this week, and funny enough, Flacco helped the Browns upset the Green Bay Packers back in Week 3. The Bengals certainly have better weapons than the Browns, but a far worse offensive line, and it’s been tough to run on this defense.

The Packers aren’t giving up many explosive plays (15+ yards). They’re first in total explosive play rate (5.6%), third in rushing explosive play rate (0.4%), and first in passing explosive play rate (5.2%). Even with the addition of Flacco, this is a bad spot for the Bengals' offense. The Bengals have a 15.5-point implied team total, and the Packers are massive home favorites.

Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $4,800

Like the Green Bay Packers, the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off their Bye week and playing at home against the Cleveland Browns. The NFL did the Brownies zero favors with this scheduling. The Browns just played last week in London, where Dillon Gabriel made his first career start. They had to obviously travel back home and now go on the road once again for a divisional game with a well-rested Steelers defense.

Heading into the Bye week, the Steelers had seven takeaways, 11 sacks, and gave up just 35 total points in Weeks 3 and 4. Only 17% of the Browns’ offensive drives are reaching the end zone this season. That’s second-worst in the NFL, ahead of just the Tennessee Titans (16%).

Now I do believe that Quinshon Judkins is arguably matchup proof, given what he’s done against opposing defenses. He’s the only piece of the Browns offense that worries me. But the offensive line is still allowing just 0.49 yards before contact per carry (last in the NFL), a 37.8% pressure rate (31st in the NFL), and a 55% pass block win rate (26th in the NFL).

This game has the lowest implied total of all the Week 6 games at 37.5 points, and the Steelers are 5.5-point favorites, so Vegas really isn’t expecting much production from Cleveland.

 

 

 

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Picks for Week 6

Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $3,800

I don’t buy into much upside with this D/ST recommendation, but there’s a good enough floor for cash games. The Tennessee Titans will go on the road to Vegas, and we’ve enjoyed rostering defenses against this offense through the first five weeks of the season.

The Titans rank 30th in total offensive explosive play rate (6.6%), 29th in rushing explosive play rate (0.7%), and 29th in passing explosive play rate (5.9%). Cam Ward has also turned the ball over in all five games this season. The Titans are also only averaging 14.6 points per game, which is tied for the lowest in the league.

The Raiders also have a great disruptor in Maxx Crosby, who already has two sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception through five games. The Raiders will be a chalky option because of the matchup against Ward and Co. I’m fine eating the chalk for cash games if you play that format, but for tournaments, I may look elsewhere.

New England Patriots – DraftKings: $3,100 | FanDuel: $4,300

The Patriots are coming off a massive win against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, and they have a nice stretch of easy games over the next few weeks. But nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. They’ll head down to the bayou to face off against the New Orleans Saints, who are fresh off getting their first win with Spencer Rattler as their quarterback.

The pass rush numbers are rather mediocre for the Patriots, but I feel much better about this defense and the secondary when Christian Gonzalez is active. The Saints rank 32nd in both total offensive explosive play rate (5.7%) and passing explosive play rate (4.3%), while they’re 26th in rushing explosive play rate (1.4%). Their offensive line also ranks bottom three in run block win rate (67%) and pass block win rate (49%).

The Patriots are only 3.5-point road favorites, but with the Saints only averaging 18.4 points per game, this is a good spot for the Patriots to get another win and keep pace in the AFC East.

 

 

 

NFL Week 6 DFS D/ST Value Pick

Tennessee Titans – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $3,900

The Titans' defense isn’t very good, but they will draw significant ownership in this matchup simply because they’re playing the Las Vegas Raiders. This game has one of the lower implied totals on the slate (41.5 points) and the Titans are only 3.5-point underdogs.

We loved the Colts against the Raiders last week, and the Colts returned 17 fantasy points. The Vegas offensive line is atrocious, and Kolton Miller is on IR. But the big reason everyone is fine with paying down to Tennessee is because Geno Smith has been terrible this season. In five games, he’s thrown nine interceptions and taken 16 sacks. Among qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in EPA/Play (-0.05) and he’s 32nd in turnover-worthy play rate (5.1%), just ahead of Cooper Rush (5.6%) and Jake Browning (6.0%).

The Titans also have some momentum after getting their first win of the season last week, and now they draw an offense that loves giving the ball to the opposing defense.

I’ll briefly mention the Cleveland Browns as a pivot in the value tier on DraftKings and FanDuel. I am somewhat weary of their heavy travel. And while this defense is great, they don’t always translate to being a good D/ST for fantasy football. Yet the price is very manageable, but again, the Steelers are coming off their Bye week.

 

NFL DFS D/ST Fade for Week 6

Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $2,700 | FanDuel: $4,700

The Seahawks aren’t priced horribly on DraftKings, but they’re the third most expensive D/ST on FanDuel, which doesn’t make much sense to me. They do face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, who may still be riding high off their huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 5.

Normally, I would love to play a D/ST that’s playing an offense on a short week. However, that’s not the case with Seattle. The Jags played at home on Monday, and they’re home for this matchup in Week 6. So they didn’t have to travel at all. Meanwhile, Seattle has to travel cross-country and play in the early window on Sunday, so the scheduling probably favors Jacksonville.

Moreover, the Seattle defense is pretty beat up, and it didn’t get much better last week against Tampa Bay. For last week’s game, they were without Julian Love, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Devon Witherspoon. As of Wednesday, none of those players were practicing. And to pour salt on the wound, Riq Woolen is dealing with a concussion, and Nick Emmanwori suffered an ankle injury last week. Given all the injuries to this defense and the travel, I’m willing to fade this D/ST and look elsewhere in Week 6.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 6 D/ST Play of the Week

Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $3,300 | FanDuel: $4,200

This is more of a gut call, but I do believe the Colts can finish as one of the three highest scoring D/ST’s on the slate. The Arizona Cardinals come to town, and there is some uncertainty at the quarterback position. Kyler Murray did not practice on Wednesday with a foot injury. So that’ll be a situation worth monitoring. If he can’t go, then Jacoby Brissett will get the start. Brissett is a serviceable backup, but he obviously lacks the rushing upside of Murray.

Entering Week 6, the Colts have allowed the fifth fewest points to opposing offenses (89). And to lend some context, the Green Bay Packers (84 points allowed) and Atlanta Falcons (86 points allowed) have played one less game than Indianapolis. The Colts have held both the Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins to under 10 points, and both those games came at home. Needless to say, this group plays very well in their own barn.

The Colts rank sixth in defensive EPA/DB (-0.03), and they rank 12th in sack rate (7.0%) despite being 25th in pressure rate (31.7%). The implied total is rather high at 46.5 points. But the Colts are already favored by seven points at home, and that could move more in their favor if Murray is ruled out.