Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns

On the first full slate of the NBA season, we get an incredible Showdown matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns. These two Western Conference powerhouses met in the 2022 Western Conference semifinals where Dallas came back down 2-3 to win it in seven games. Phoenix largely returns the same roster this season and will be looking to exact a small measure of revenge on the same floor where they were eliminated as a number one seed last year. Here are the NBA DFS top plays we can invest in for our lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo!

 

 

Dallas Mavericks injuries:

Davis Bertans – Out

Tyler Dorsey – Out

Frank Ntilikina – Out

Maxi Kleber - Questionable

Phoenix Suns injuries:

Jae Crowder – Out

Landry Shamet - Out

 

MVP/CAPTAIN

Luka Doncic (PG)

The MVP/Captain decision tonight almost starts and ends with Luka Doncic. Doncic led the NBA in usage rate last season, and averaged 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game, ranking top-20 in each of those categories. And now, Jalen Brunson’s 22% usage rate is off to New York, which should mean more ball-handling and shots for Doncic. He led the NBA in time with the ball last season, and we should not be surprised if in 2022-2023, he sets the NBA record for usage rate in a season. He never scored less than 51 fantasy points in any game of the Phoenix series last year. 

Devin Booker (PG/SG)

The Suns’ revenge tour officially begins tonight, and Devin Booker is on a mission after failing to get past Dallas in the second round last year. After posting career highs in points (26.8), rebounds (5.0), and three-point shooting (38.3%) last season, Booker says that was “just the start.” With Chris Paul a year older, and any offense off the bench very questionable this year, expect more than the 42.8 fantasy points per game he averaged last season. 

Chris Paul (PG)

We can’t ever really count out Chris Paul, even as he approaches age 38 and his 18th NBA season. He showed last year he can still play 33 minutes per night (in an incredible 78 games), shoot over 50% from the field, lead the league in assists (10.4 per game), and average more than 40 fantasy points per night. We can likely expect some kind of drop-off in production after such an efficient season, but for 20% less than Booker on most DFS sites, he is worth a strong look as a way to save salary in the MVP/Captain spot. 

UTILITY 

Deandre Ayton (C )

Playing Ayton tonight – especially on DraftKings – is all about the salary and hope for points per dollar. At just $7,400 on that site, Ayton has not been that cheap since an April 1 game against Memphis, and he was frequently between $8,000 and $9,000 in the playoffs. Dallas was one of the tougher teams against centers last season, allowing fewer fantasy points per game than the league average, but it will only take about 35 fantasy points to reach 5x value, which was exactly his average last season. We don’t need 50 points out of Ayton tonight at this salary, but there is always a chance against a lot of Christian Wood. Wood ranked 112th in the NBA in defensive plus-minus last season. 

Spencer Dinwiddie (PG/SG)

Instead of filling the starting spot left behind by Jalen Brunson, the plan for now is to still have Dinwiddie come off the bench and to start Tim Hardaway, Jr. The expectation is that Dinwiddie will still approach 30 minutes per game, and Hardaway has been so injury prone the last two seasons, Dinwiddie might be thrust into more playing time by default this year. The last time these two teams played, Dinwiddie torched the Suns for 43.25 fantasy points including 30 actual points in the clinching game. He will primarily see a lot of Devin Booker on defense, which is a good thing. Booker’s 108.1 defensive rating was the worst on the entire Suns team last year. 

Christian Wood (PF/C)

The Dallas Mavericks are preparing to start JaVale McGee over new acquisition Christian Wood to start the season, which is certainly a choice. Last year with the Rockets, Wood averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 50% shooting per game (including 39% from three). I don’t really have a concern here because Wood will end up with 30 minutes, will help anchor the second unit, and will certainly be in the crunch-time lineup over McGee. Against Phoenix last year, he averaged 36.2 fantasy points in 30 minutes per game and could actually see more minutes on a contending team this season. 

DART THROWS

Cameron Johnson (SF/PF)

With Jae Crowder out for this game due to an ongoing conflict with the Suns about his role and place on the squad, Cam Johnson will step up and start at power forward in his place. That should mean an increase in the 25.6 minutes he played per game across 70 regular season contests last year. Johnson is already one of those players who can put up a lot of fantasy points without a ton of time on the floor. His per-36-minute rates last year were 17.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. If he approaches 30+ minutes tonight, he should easily smash the return on investment at his salary. 

Reggie Bullock (SF)

Reggie Bullock is never going to be a high-usage player on this Mavericks’ team, but his three-point prowess and his ability to lock down wing players on defense still serve him will for DFS, especially at a salary of just $5,000 on DraftKings. In the Phoenix series last year, Bullock scored at least 25 DK points in three of the seven games, but most importantly never played less than 33 minutes in those games. 

 

 

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