We have a two-game NBA DFS main slate on Friday, April 14th, as four teams play for the final two playoff spots in the 2023 NBA postseason. The NBA play-in tournament has been a huge success and these two games tonight decide the eight seeds. The Miami Heat play host to the Chicago Bulls and DeMar DeRozan's daughter while the Oklahoma City Thunder go on the road to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves who may not like each other all that much. Be sure to check out our NBA DFS projections, powered by FanJections, NBA DFS Lineup Generator, and all of the rest of our NBA DFS content and tools! Let's dive into my top plays of the night.

 

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

O/U: 208.5

Spread: MIA -5.5
 

Injuries

Chicago Bulls Injuries

None

Miami Heat Injuries

Jimmy Butler - QUEST

Kyle Lowry - QUEST

Gabe Vincent - QUEST
 

Chicago Bulls NBA DFS Breakdown

The Bulls had a fantastic come-from-behind victory in their first play-in game led by DeMar DeRozan’s screaming daughter. Kidding..kind of. The Bulls ran a seven-man rotation last game and at the guard position, Alex Caruso played the most minutes between Caruso, Patrick Beverley, and Coby White. If Caruso is going to top 30 minutes, he’s the most valuable of the three guys. If White and Beverley are going to play similar minutes, White is the better option because he is the higher-usage player.

We saw Zach LaVine completely take that last game over to get the Bulls into this position and his price skyrocketed because of it. DeMar DeRozan has played very well against the Heat this year averaging 38.6 minutes and 51.7 DKP/game against them. They’re both going to play 40 minutes and both are in play. Patrick Williams is a potential GPP dart because he’s one of the two players that the Bulls gave time to off the bench.

Nikola Vucevic is going to be on the floor for 40 minutes and nobody is going to play more than five minutes behind him. Barring foul trouble, Vucevic is a double-double lock here and his passing acumen truly gives him a massive ceiling.

Tier 1 play(s): DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso

Tier 2 play(s): Coby White

 

Miami Heat NBA DFS Breakdown

Tonight’s starting lineup could look different tonight after what happened to them against the Atlanta Hawks and how Kyle Lowry looked coming off the bench. The Heat limited Lowry down the stretch to keep him fresh for the postseason and he scored 33 actual points and 48 DKP as well. He played 33 minutes and that could jump to 35-36. That could hinder Gabe Vincent’s minutes although the two have shared the court quite a bit this year. Vincent is a second tier option if he’s starting and he’s really not on my radar if he comes off the bench. Tyler Herro draws a very tough match-up against the likes of Alex Caruso and Patrick Beverley and there’s no surprise seeing Herro just get off 11 shots against Chicago the last time the two faced one another. He was good in the first play-in game but with Kyle Lowry playing point-guard, the zero assists is a bit correlated and could hurt his overall value. He’s a secondary play for me.

On the wing, good luck figuring out who the play is. Caleb Martin was the guy who saw the most minutes outside of Jimmy Butler, but Max Strus is always lurking. He started for the Heat in their playoff game but played 24 minutes because he was 1-for-5 from the field. If he makes shots, maybe it’s a closer split between him and Martin. Strus has been fantastic against the Bulls this year, shooting 41% from three and has averaged 30.2 MPG and 15.3 PPG.

Kevin Love fell out of the rotation and likely does so here again since the Bulls aren’t playing a traditional power-forward, so the only thing we like for Miami is Bam Adebayo. He played the most minutes for Miami and with the lack of depth at his position, we should expect much of the same here.

Tier 1 play(s): Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Max Strus

Tier 2 play(s): Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin

 

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves

O/U: 228.5

Spread: MIN -5.5

 

Injuries

Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries

Aleksej Pokusevski - OUT

Minnesota Timberwolves Injuries

Karl-Anthony Towns - QUEST

Rudy Gobert - QUEST

Jaylen Nowell - QUEST
 

Oklahoma City Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown

For the first time really all year, the Thunder just elected to play their starters big minutes and that shouldn’t change here. Both Shai Gilegous-Alexander and Josh Giddey played 40+ minutes last time out and that’s amazing. We saw Giddey explode in every facet of the game as he fell one rebound shy of a 30-point triple-double. Both Giddey and SGA are top-tier options and truthfully, I’m OK playing both in the same lineup. Isaiah Joe played the most minutes off the bench and if he makes some shots, he can provide us with OK value, but he’s a secondary play at best.

We’re likely not going to see Lu Dort’s offensive output from Wednesday again, but hey, it’s in the cards right? He scored 27 points and 38.75 DKP and will likely be on the floor every minute Anthony Edwards is as OKC always sticks Dort on the opposing team's best player. That in theory should limit his offensive output, but it didn’t impact his last game. I still think he profiles more as a secondary play. Jalen Williams’ price continues to dip, but the minutes do not. He played 40 minutes last time out, he just shot poorly. He contributes in every category and even on a night he went 4-of-14. I love this play tonight.

The biggest difference in the Thunder rotation was Jaylin Williams playing 30 minutes. He almost triple-doubled and was the best low-owned value play of the slate at sub-10%. IF Williams gets in foul trouble, we could potentially see Dario Saric get a few extra minutes of run as he was the backup center in their previous play-in game. Saric is an MME play.

Tier 1 play(s): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams

Tier 2 play(s): Lu Dort, Dario Saric

 

Minnesota Timberwolves NBA DFS Breakdown

With Rudy Gobert back in the lineup, let’s hope the Timberwolves keep their anger in check tonight. At the guard spot tonight, Mike Conley is going to play a lot of minutes and if he makes threes, he could be a fantastic option. It’s hard to predict four steals and blocks every night out, but Conley is a fantastic defender. We saw Nickiel Alexander-Walker play 23 minutes, most of the Wolves bench players, but I wonder if that dips a bit with the return of Rudy Gobert. I’m limiting my exposure here. Secondary tier play only. Jaylen Nowell is a shot in the dark if he suits up.

Anthony Edwards is a great option considering he’s going to play 40 minutes, likely be first or second in shot attempts, and has the best position eligibility there is in SG/SF. Kyle Anderson was fantastic last game, but the same amount of production with Rudy Gobert likely returning isn’t likely. The same can be said for Taurean Prince who will see a drastic cut in minutes and opportunities.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are interesting options themselves. KAT was amazing last time out and looks all the way back playing 41 minutes. Gobert definitely has an issue with his back and that could limit him, but there is a distinct size advantage for him and he could EAT on the glass. Gobert, in just 22.4 minutes/game against the Thunder, averaged 14.7 points and 11.7 rebounds.

Tier 1 play(s): Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert (if he’s not limited)

Tier 2 play(s): Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson

Player Pool

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Stacks

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