We are BACK! The NBA regular season is kicking off on Tuesday, October 21st with a two-game NBA DFS main slate as the reigning NBA champion, Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Houston Rockets while the Golden State Warriors travel to LA to take on the Los Angeles Lakers. There are already injury concerns for some teams as Jimmy Butler and Jalen Williams are both questionable and LeBron James is out. 

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, October 21st

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Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 10/21

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Total: 227.5
  • Spread: OKC -7.5

Rockets NBA DFS Breakdown

UPDATE - Rockets starting lineup is: Amen Thompson - Kevin Durant - Jabari Smith. - Alperen Sengun - Steven Adams

  • Bump to Steven Adams in all formats (.96 DKP/min, 1.00 FDP/min with Sengun last year; 234 mins)
  • Bump to Jabari Smith. in all formats (1.00 FP/min, .97 FDP/min with Sengun/Adams lineup; 141 mins)
  • Reed Sheppard takes a hit, but should play low-to-mid 20s minutes off the bench.

The Rockets are an interesting team because we don't know what their starting lineup is. We don't know who's going to officially start at PG. They might start Reed Sheppard and they might go double-big with Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams starting in the front-court next to one another. Either way, we should see Sheppard play low-20s minutes off the bench and the ceiling is probably high 20s minutes if he draws a start.

Amen Thompson will start either way, but in one role he'll be the starting point-guard and the other he'll play alongside Sheppard. He has a tough task on the defensive end of the floor considering he's going to be chasing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander around all evening long. Thompson averaged 1.1 FP/min on both FanDuel and DraftKings without Fred VanVleet last season, but now insert Kevin Durant, so what will that number look like?

I love the fit for Kevin Durant in Houston because they needed instant offense and that's what Kevin Durant is, has been, and always will be. Last year in Phoenix, Durant averaged 1.2 FP/min on DK and 1.8 FP/min on FD. With Dorian Finney-Smith out, they'll like turn to Tari Eason for more minutes off the Houston Bench, another guy who was a 1.1 FP/min player without FVV last season. 

Alongside Durant, we're going to see Jabari Smith. start and he's a decent option. He's a safer bet than Tari Eason in terms of minutes, but he's not as good of a fantasy scorer. Smith, without FVV last year, was a smidge over .8 FP/min on both DK & FD.

Alperen Sengun is a monster and is in play in all formats. He's ability do everything should be a perfect pairing with Kevin Durant. The rest of the center room is..something. They could start Steven Adams alongside Sengun and we've seen that lineup absolutely dominant on the glass. Clint Capela is going to be playing strict backup five minutes.

Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown

UPDATE - Jalen Williams & Isaiah Joe have been ruled OUT. Without Joe & Williams last year;

The reigning champs check into opening night without a clean bill of health and as it stands right now, we're unsure what the health of a couple of their players is. We're uncertain at this point if Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe will play as the Thunder have kept that news close to the chest, but Williams hasn't played all preseason as he's recovering from wrist surgery and Joe has missed the final two preseason games with a knee injury.

You know who isn't injured? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This isn't an easy spot with Amen Thompson defense looming, but SGA is coming off a MVP season followed by a Finals MVP win. If Williams doesn't play in the opener, SGA has a 39% USG and averages 1.6 FP/min without him.

All of the wings are interesting because one of them are going to break out and likely be in the optimal lineup. Luguentz Dort is going to start and is the cheapest of all of them. If Jalen Williams is out, Cason Wallace likely starts and is a decent option, especially if Isaiah Joe is out. If Joe and Williams miss this one, Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso should get a pretty big bump in minutes and both of them are better on a FP/min scale than Wallace and Dort.

The front court for the Thunder has a chance to do great things this year, we just don't know at this point if Jalen Williams is playing. He might be a little rusty if he does play because he is recovering from wrist surgery and didn't play at all in the preseason. Chet Holmgren heads into 2025-'26 healthy, something that hasn't happened a lot since entering the league. I love the price for Holmgren, especially if Williams is out. He was a 1.1 FP/min player along with a 22.5% USG without Williams this year. Isaiah Hartenstein was put on ice in the postseason, but he's the perfect regular season player because his minutes will tick up and you're not as worried about him being played off the floor. He should get close to 30 minutes here.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers

  • Total: 224.5
  • Spread: GSW -2

Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

UPDATE - Al Horford is expected to play only 20 minutes in this game.

The Warriors open the 2025-'26 season dealing with injuries already. Although the injuries doesn't seem to be overly concerning, Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga are questionable but expected to play. Head coach Steve Kerr also said he hasn't fully decided on the team's starting lineup yet.

The Warriors rotation is going to be tricky to figure out. What we have confirmed:

Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler (if he plays) will start. It sounds like Kerr is leaning Brandin Podziemski as the starting shooting-guard without Moses Moody available. He doesn't know who the fifth starter will be, but it's likely between Al Horford and Jonathan Kuminga.

Curry looked great in the preseason and has a great matchup here against the Lakers. I have a hard time getting to Podziemski at his price on DK but would be more likely to play him on FD. Buddy Hield is a fantastic price on FD and an awful price on DK, especially if he doesn't start. It's likely we see Gary Payton in the rotation, but for how long? That remains to be seen. Will Richard, second-round pick, could also play a role, but likely not enough for fantasy purposes.

As a Warrior last year, Jimmy Butler averaged 1.13 FP/min and had a 22.4% USG rate. If he suits up, he's a very solid option at the worst position on the board on DK (SF). I love Draymond Green in this spot at just 5.7K. He's either starting at PF and C and was right at one FP/min with Butler last year. If Jonathan Kuminga is coming off the bench, GPPs only. If he starts, he's a fantastic option. If it's Al Horford, Horford is pretty cheap and I'd get there.

Lakers NBA DFS Breakdown

Without LeBron James, the Lakers are going to deploy a starting lineup of Luka Doncic, Gabe Vincent, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and Deandre Ayton. It's likely that the Lakers are going to be the most popular team/stack of the night. It's going to start with Doncic and Reaves and it's going to end with them too. 

Without James last year, Doncic averaged 1.79 FP/min and a 42.7% USG rate. When it comes to Reaves, without James and Anthony Davis, Reaves had a 29.5% USG and 1.36 FP/min too. Gabe Vincent is going to start, but will he play more minutes than Marcus Smart? Smart's the presumed better defender, but how dusty is he at this point in his career? They're both cheap and would love to see what the ownership comes in at for them.

Rui Hachimura is going to start at the other forward spot and he should be penciled in for 30 minutes, if his shot is falling he has a solid ceiling. The primary bench pieces on the wing and at the forward spots is Jake LaRavia and Jarred Vanderbilt. LaRavia has a chance at a big role for this Lakers team.

6.3K on DK is a really solid price for Deandre Ayton. Even at 7K on FanDuel, it's solid. Teams didn't haven't wanted Ayton and that's obvious considering he's playing for his third team in three years here, but when he's on the floor he's productive and was nearly a 1.1 FP/min producer last year and that's without playing with someone of Luka Doncic's caliber.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value

 

Don't Miss The NBA DFS Playbook Live Show At 5:00 PM ET on 10/21