Miami Heat & Golden State Warriors
Over/Under: 222.5
Spread: GSW -1
Miami takes a trip to the Bay Area to face the Warriors in a late-night showdown!
News to Watch:
*Goran Dragic – Out
*James Wiseman - Out
Player Breakdown:
CPT/MVP:
Stephen Curry PG (GS) $18,000 –
While Curry is not racking up the assists to the same degree as in previous years (5.9 per game), it’s difficult to argue with what we are seeing out of him from an offensive perspective. Curry is really the only game in town when it comes to scoring for the Warriors and he is taking full advantage of the situation. After getting off to a slow start as this is not the Golden State team we have become accustomed to in the past, Curry has gotten back on track and is now averaging 30.1 points per game. That is boosted by the 37.3 points he has in his last six games while not scoring less than 27 points this month. Curry has to be in your lineup tonight, it comes down to roster construction whether or not he is in the captain spot, but there really is only one other choice.
Jimmy Butler SF (MIA) $15,600 –
And here we are with that other option as Butler does represent a significant cost savings over Curry as well the direction I’m going in tonight. Since Butler does more from a rebounding (7.4 per game) and assist (7.1 per game) perspective by about two each than Curry he offers greater upside since it’s also difficult to ignore his offensive capabilities as well. With Dragic sidelined, Butler has received even more playmaking responsibilities than he previously had. Yes, Butler is scoring about 10 points less than his opponent but over his last 10 games, the worst he has done is put up 37.5 fantasy points. Not only does he have two triple-doubles over his last three games, but Butler has come a combined 10 rebounds and assists shy from five other triple-doubles in his last 10 games. It is for good reason that he is averaging 44.4 fantasy points per game so far this season.
Draymond Green PF/C (GS) $12,300 –
I have nothing against Bam Adebayo (more on him shortly) but if you aren’t going with the studs and their upside in the captain spot, then drop down another thousand dollars and go with Green. He is isn’t doing much from an offensive perspective as of late (26 points in his last four games) but Green is more than making up for it in other areas. Green has now become the main playmaker for Golden State’s offense and is coming off a 16-assist performance in his last game for his third double digit game for an average of 11.5. Factor in seven rebounds and suddenly we don’t care as much about Green’s lack of offense.
MID-TIER:
Bam Adebayo C (MIA) $10,000 –
I teased Adebayo earlier and it’s hard to argue with his production. That is especially true as Golden State is without Wiseman and therefore much of a post presence. When we last saw Adebayo he put up 58.5 fantasy points against the Clippers in what was his third straight double-double which isn’t far off from the 19.8 points and 9.8 rebounds he is averaging per game so far this season. The 27-points Adebayo scored against the Clippers on Monday was a nice touch, but it’s a little too much offensive upside than I feel comfortable counting on.
Tyler Herro PG/SG (MIA) $7,400 –
Herro is no stranger to offensive upside on a good day, but with Dragic sidelined there is even more playing time to be found as he is consistently eclipsing the 30-minute mark. Despite that fact Herro hasn’t seen much movement from the four assists he is averaging per game but he does chip in about six rebounds per game to provide us with solid floor of production. What we are really after here is the 27 points Herro put up in Miami’s last game against the Clippers but even his average of 17 points per game gives us 32 fantasy points. Over his last 10 games, Herro hasn’t put up less than 24 fantasy points so it’s easy to have confidence in him tonight.
Juan Toscano-Anderson SF/PF (GS) $5,400 –
Toscano-Anderson continues to find himself in the starting lineup for the shorthanded Warriors and while we aren’t looking at a crazy upside play here; it doesn’t mean we are without value. In his last six games the Golden State forward is averaging 8.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game and 20 to 25 fantasy points is a reasonable expectation as he continues to play about 25 minutes per game.
DART THROWS:
Damion Lee PG/SG (GSW) $3,200 –
Of course there is the chance for a dud performance, just like a few games against Orlando, when all Lee had to show for his 21 minutes of play was a lone assist, but he has generally made solid use of the 20 or so minutes of playing time he receives each night. Lee needs the ball in his hand to make things happen and for the most part he simply is not getting those opportunities coming in off the bench. Generally Lee attempts about six shots per game, and while he has proven to be inconsistent, 15 to 20 fantasy points are a reasonable expectation here.
Andre Iguodala SF/PF (MIA) $1,800 –
Iguodala’s impact on Miami goes beyond the fantasy box score, but based on the price, it’s not like we are expecting all that much from him. The forward has every category of production covered, albeit moderately at best, in the roughly 20 minutes of run he gets each night and while Max Strus might offer more upside, Iguodala does give you a little more security for $400 less.
Precious Achiuwa PF/C (MIA) $1,400 –
In case you haven’t noticed, tonight is lining up to be a stars and scrubs type night. It really doesn’t get any cheaper than Achiuwa, and did we mention that Golden State is limited in the post? While Achiuwa is averaging about 15 minutes per game so far this season, in two of his last three games, he has played in just five minutes each so there is so risk involved here. When he has been on the court, the rookie is averaging 6.2 points and 3.9 rebounds per game so far this season so we are working with some talent and upside along with the risk of coming close to punting a roster spot.