NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 2, 2015

One of the things I really like about writing the NBA Position Coach is it confirms what I already suspected: each position is different on any given day. A lot of fantasy players try to find patterns or strategies that work every time out, but the reality is the market at a given position changes drastically from day to day, so strategies like “go cheap at SG” or “Spend up at PG” can be great one day and awful the next. In Wednesday’s slate, some interesting patterns emerged that run counter to what I have seen for most of the season. As always, it pays to evaluate each slate independently.

Point Guard

Normally point guard is the position where I recommend paying up, and while I couldn’t argue too strongly with anyone who wanted to play John Wall or Stephen Curry, I found there is too much value in the mid-priced players for me to recommend the studs. The highest-priced point guard I am targeting is Kemba Walker. The Hornets have to replace Al Jefferson’s scoring somehow, and it probably isn’t going to be with the Frank Kaminsky-Cody Zeller-Spencer Hawes triumvirate of mediocrity. I expect Walker to take more shots than normal, and make at least a few of them.

The only other point guards I really feel great about for cash games are Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell. The Wizards rank in the top eight in the NBA in opponent’s points, threes, rebounds and assists. Clarkson and Russell are uniquely suited to take advantage.

As for GPPs, point guard has some intriguing possibilities. Austin Rivers could easily score 20 points if Chris Paul is out. Emmanuel Mudiay is going to break out of his shooting slump sooner than later. I love Reggie Jackson against the up-tempo Suns, but Jackson has had enough stinkers this season to make me a bit leery of trusting him for cash games.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard position is much like the point guard position. Unless you are going to start James Harden , you are probably choosing from among mid-priced options. The Pelicans have allowed more points than any team this season, so Harden is an obvious choice.

The other shooting guards I like Wednesday are teammates, and which one(s) you choose really depends on how much you are looking to spend. Randy Foye and Will Barton have both seen a bump in minutes with Gary Harris out. Barton is money in the bank for double-digit points, but he hasn’t topped 15 points in 10 days and hasn’t reach 20 points in nearly three weeks. Randy Foye has done very little with his increased playing time, but he has averaged 30.5 minutes with Harris out, and sooner or later he has to stumble into a good game.

Tyreke Evans was awesome Tuesday in his first game back from injury, and while he probably won’t have 20, 10 and 5 again, he should have the ball a lot with Jrue Holiday likely out or at least limited. Gordon is a cheaper alternative to Evans, and while he probably doesn’t have the same ceiling, I would argue he has a higher floor.

Small Forward

I promise the expensive options are coming. At small forward, however, I’m not breaking the bank. Much like the Lakers’ point guards, Trevor Ariza has the perfect skill set to take advantage of his opponent’s deficiencies. Somebody besides James Harden has to score some fantasy points in this game, and Ariza is the best bet.

If you want to go super-cheap, Thabo Sefolosha is intriguing. He is averaging 9.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks as a starter this season, and he will start Wednesday.

The argument for Nicolas Batum is the same as the argument for Kemba Walker: Both will have the ball in their hands a ton with Al Jefferson out.

Robert Covington has averaged 18.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 4.3 steals over his last six games. Can I interest you in those numbers?

Power Forward

Finally, we reach the position where I am truly comfortable paying up. Paul Millsap has been on an absolute tear lately, and I don’t see anyone in Toronto’s frontcourt who can slow him down. Kristaps Porzingis has been nearly as hot as Millsap lately, and he will likely spend a lot of time guarded by the defense-allergic Jahlil Okafor.

Anthony Davis has looked like a man on a mission since finally getting healthy, and he is a great bet against a Houston team ranking third in opponent’s points. Last, but not least, Kenneth Faried is back healthy and facing a Bulls team that has allowed more opponent’s rebounds than anybody. Faried’s minutes have been limited thus far, but he may only need 20 minutes to rack up 12 rebounds against the Bulls.

Center

Center may be the most interesting position of the night, as there are players I like at every price point, which is awesome since you only need to play one (except on FantasyFeud). Nikola Jokic is a cheaper alternative to Kenneth Faried, and one who is equally capable of dominating the Bulls on the glass.

Speaking of rebounding, it is hard to believe a team with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin can be fourth in the NBA in opponent’s rebounds. Of course, maybe that is simply the result of all of the rebounds from DeAndre’s missed free throws. In any event, that bodes well for Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi, who are nearly indistinguishable statistically. I prefer Hill slightly, but Mahinmi is a bit cheaper on most sites.

I saved the three centers I like best for last. Jahlil Okafor is a bit inconsistent, but I don’t think the Knicks have anybody who can slow him down. I don’t know if there is anybody in the NBA who can slow down Andre Drummond, and Phoenix’s fast pace means Drummond should have a lot of opportunities on both ends. Finally, the Lakers are second in the NBA in Opponent’s rebounds and fourth in opponent’s points. I will be surprised if Marcin Gortat does not have a double-double in this game.