Welcome to the weekend. It is Friday and that means we are putting down four units to start the weekend with a big win! Yesterday brought the smallest of profit gains, but fish and bread keep a poor man fed. Thank you Scottie Barnes for coming through again, and making it a profitable night. Today is a fun day in the NBA, with the second loaded Friday slate. Seven primetime games are in action with two nationally televised games on ESPN. The night begins with the San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets in a battle of bottom-ranked teams. There will be a proposition bet in that match as a player makes their first appearance in Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. The second game for ESPN is the Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers. There is a straight bet that the data indicates the sportsbooks could be off. The first ESPN match is a potential NBA Finals preview as the Denver Nuggets continue their brutal Eastern Conference road trip. This match is against the Boston Celtics who are undefeated at home this season. The Bet of the Night goes back to the big man on the visiting team.

 

NBA Bet of the Night

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets – OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110 BetMGM 2 UNITS)

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are seven-point underdogs against the Boston Celtics tonight. Despite that, this could be an NBA Finals preview, as both are the favorites to win their conference. The Celtics have won twenty games at home this season and lost zero. TD Garden has been very good for the Celtics this year, however, this game should be close, and the starters from both teams should play their average minutes or more. Nikola Jokic’s effort is never in question, and he should have a great rebounding night against smaller centers and forwards. The Nuggets have not lost back-to-back games since December eighth, and expect a tough game from Nikola Jokic. He has covered this rebounding prop in his last two games and Boston’s leading rebounder is forward Jayson Tatum. Aaron Gordon will be locked on J. Tatum and N. Jokic should have an easy opportunity for several defensive rebounds.  N. Jokic’s season average is 11.8, and in what could be a tough defensive game, shot percentage could go down. This would allow more rebounding opportunities for one of the best rebounders in the league. Double unit down on the two-time MVP.

NBA Prop Bet

LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets – OVER 33.5 Points+Assists (-120 BetMGM)

LaMelo Ball is back and playing at an elite level, but he has not helped his team win a game since his return. In fact, the Charlotte Hornets have won just two of their last twenty games. That could change tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs allow 121.3 points per game and have been generous to the point guard position. San Antonio allows the fifth most points, sixth most rebounds, and ninth most assists to opposing point guards. LaMelo Ball has twenty-eight or more points in two of his three games and has five or more assists in every game since returning from his injury absence. The Spurs' defense is slightly improving, but the Hornets have a chance to win the game, they are -4.5 on the spread and should enjoy a good shooting percentage against the Spurs. A happy and confident team could lead to a higher shooting percentage from L. Ball’s teammates, who can be streaky scorers. There is also the possibility that L. Ball could score thirty-four points tonight and cover this prop without any assists. His point line is at 28.5 but is heavily juiced on most books, so the combination of assists was added with much better odds.

NBA Straight Bet

Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 1st Half Spread (-115 BetMGM)

The Los Angeles Lakers are hosting the Brooklyn Nets for the second match on ESPN tonight. The Lakers are on the third of a four-game home stretch while the Nets are on the second of a three-game road trip. The LA Lakers have had difficulty closing out games, often losing the fourth quarter. Bad rotations and the lack of a good bench prevent them from putting away games in the fourth quarter. They do start relatively well though. The Lakers average 57.2 points per game in the first half, and are slightly up to 57.3 over their last three games. The Brooklyn Nets scored 55.7 points in the first half, but are drastically down over their last three games, managing only 43.7. They also have a dip in points on the road with an average of 53.0. LeBron James is questionable but expected to play, Anthony Davis is probable, and Austin Reaves has been playing more minutes and rewarding the team with consistent points and assists. The Lakers are seven-point favorites and could be up that much after the first half, trust the data and better players in this first-half straight bet tonight. 

 

Thank you for reading and remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise