Welcome back from the extended weekend. There were several great games and performances in yesterday’s NBA games. Jalen Brunson and Luka Doncic put up unreal numbers to help their teams win despite being underdogs. The two best teams in their conferences, Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics took care of business against two California teams. It was a great betting day if you took advantage of it. 

Today, Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets looks at the nine games in action. There is a parlay built from the Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons and Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers games. There is also a favorable prop bet in the Western Conference showdown between All-Star centers Domantas Sabonis and DeAndre Ayton. 

There are two nationally televised games and there is another big man prop bet in the first of those games. The Indiana Pacers travel to Houston to take on the Rockets in a battle of opposing philosophies. The Pacers are all offense, and the Rockets like to play tough defense. A look at Myles Turner in what should be a profitable angle. 

 

NBA Bet of the Night 

Two-Leg Money Line Parlay: Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings (-123 at BetMGM)

Parlays can be tricky bets, and it is difficult to win one bet much less get two correct in order to win a bet. However, with all teams being rested before today’s games, it is easy to go with the better teams on the money line. Combining these two moneylines gets near even odds and the Detroit Pistons and Portland Trail Blazers have a combined record of nine wins to forty-eight losses. 9-48 is a dismal 15.78% win percentage. 

The Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings have more wins individually than the Pistons and Trail Blazers have collectively. The Nets have won fourteen games and the Kings seventeen. Although the Nets and Kings have the smallest point differential they are playing teams with negative point differentials of -11.7 for Detroit, and -6.7 for Portland. They are both road teams and that has helped boost the odds, but the talent comparison in each match heavily favors the teams with double-digit wins. Expect the Nets and Kings to come out early and put up several points throughout the game. 

NBA Prob Bets of the Night

Deandre Ayton UNDER 14.5 Points (-135 at BetMGM)

Part of the reason the Sacramento Kings should win easily over the Portland Trail Blazers is the play of the starting centers. The Kings have Domantas Sabonis and the Trail Blazers have Deandre Ayton. Ayton was supposed to be an improvement from Jusuf Nurkic but has been anything but that. Instead of being a leader, a reliable rebounder, and a foundational scorer, he has been a lackluster disappointment thus far. He averages 13.1 points per game, which leaves him ranked as the forty-second-highest-scoring center… 

There are only thirty teams in the NBA. He has gone over this line in just two games this month, one against the worst rebounding team in the league, the Washington Wizards. The other he narrowly topped with sixteen points in over forty minutes played against his former team, the Phoenix Suns. Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant do most of the scoring for the Trail Blazers, and with Ayton playing against Sabonis that should continue. Sabonis is a great defender, and elite rebounder, and plays with a high basketball IQ, oftentimes getting opposing centers in early foul trouble. Put the unit on the under tonight.

Myles Turner OVER 15.5 Points (-130 at BetMGM)

Myles Turner continues to cover his overs and his play has rewarded this column with profitable bets. He plays against the Houston Rockets tonight on NBATV beginning at 8:00 PM ET. The Rockets allow the sixth most rebounds to opposing teams with 53.7 RPG allowed. Alperen Sengun logs several minutes as a center not in the paint. 

The Pacers run several pick-and-roll plays with Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner, and they will look to isolate Turner on a smaller guard. He can shoot from the perimeter well and made thirty-six threes this season. M. Turner and the Pacers will also be pushing Sengun and the Rockets at a pace they do not enjoy playing. This will favor Turner with several easy buckets around the rim. If that is not enough reason to bet on Turner, he averages 17.1 points per game and is well-rested for this match. If the former Texas Longhorn plays thirty or more minutes this should be an easy prop to cover.

Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your NBA fantasy needs. Basketball stats, rankings, DFS picks, tools to help with roster decisions and the NBA DFS show with Jon and James.

 

Thank you for reading.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise