NBA Best Bets Today: Picks, Predictions & Player Props for Sunday, April 5, 2026

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🏀 Wendell Carter Over 12.5 Points

Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans

Wendell Carter is coming off a season-high 28-point performance Friday against Dallas and arrives today riding the hottest individual scoring stretch of his season.

Carter led the Magic with 28 points on a perfect 10-for-10 from the free throw line in Orlando's 138-127 win over the Mavericks on Friday, falling just two points shy of his career best. It was his seventh over 12.5 in his last 10 games, a stretch that has established him as a reliable double-digit scoring option for Orlando down the stretch. He is averaging 12.4 points per game on the season and operates primarily at the rim, consistently generating high-efficiency looks through pick-and-roll actions and paint touches. Franz Wagner also returned from his ankle injury on Friday, contributing 18 points in 17 minutes in his second game back, which gives Orlando a more complete offensive attack heading into Sunday and should open up additional interior opportunities for Carter rather than reducing them.

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the weaker defensive teams in the league and have little interior resistance to challenge a skilled paint scorer like Carter. A season-high 28-point performance in his most recent game, seven over 12.5 in his last ten outings, and a favorable matchup against a struggling Pelicans team makes this a strong continuation play.

🏀 LeBron James Under 25.5 Points

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks 

Luka Doncic has been ruled out for the remainder of the regular season with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, and Austin Reaves is also out 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 oblique injury suffered in the same Oklahoma City loss. LeBron James will absorb additional offensive responsibility tonight, but 25.5 is still a significantly elevated number relative to everything his 2025-26 production has shown.

James is averaging 20.8 points per game on the season and has been operating in a deliberately reduced role throughout the Lakers' historic run alongside Doncic. In six games this season without Doncic, he has averaged 20.2 points, barely above his full-season average. Even with both Doncic and Reaves now sidelined, James has spent the second half of this season in a facilitator-first role, with The Ringer noting he attempted 15 or fewer shots in nine consecutive games, the longest such streak of his 23-year career. He posted 14 points in Monday's win over the Wizards without Doncic and 17 in the Cavaliers loss on Tuesday.

Dallas is a porous defensive team at 24-53 and ranks among the worst defensive units in the Western Conference, creating an environment where LeBron can get to his spots. But 25.5 requires a massive individual outlier from a player whose sustainable production in 2025-26 sits well below that threshold regardless of the circumstances around him. Even in his most elevated recent outputs without Doncic, James has remained comfortably under 25.5, and at 41 years old managing a heavy road schedule heading into the playoffs, the under is the sharp play.

🏀 Maxime Raynaud Over 14.5 Points

Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Clippers

Maxime Raynaud has been the most productive rookie frontcourt performer in the Western Conference over the last six weeks and the 14.5 line continues to sit well beneath what he has become as Sacramento's primary offensive option.

The 7-foot-1 Stanford product won Western Conference Rookie of the Month for March, averaging 17.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists across 15 appearances that included two 30-plus point outings against the Spurs and 76ers. Since the All-Star break, coinciding with Domantas Sabonis's season-ending knee surgery, Raynaud has averaged 16.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists on 58/36/82 shooting splits. His most recent outing was 28 points on 11-of-14 shooting against the Pelicans on Friday, his 17th double-double of the season and fourth time connecting from three in a single game this year. He has scored in double digits in all but two of his 18 appearances since the All-Star break. Fellow rookie big Dylan Cardwell has cleared the injury report after his left ankle sprain, which adds frontcourt depth for Sacramento. However, with Sabonis done for the season, Raynaud remains the unquestioned starting center and primary interior offensive hub, and his usage, shot volume, and role at the top of the Kings' offense are not changing with Cardwell back.

Over 14.5 for a player averaging 17.9 points over 15 March appearances, posting 28 points in his most recent game, and operating as his team's primary interior scoring option is a number that sits comfortably beneath his established current floor.

🏀 Gui Santos Over 11.5 Points

Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets

Gui Santos is in the midst of the best offensive stretch of his NBA career and arrives today as Golden State's primary scoring option with Stephen Curry targeting a potential return that, even if it materializes, will come on a minutes restriction in his first game back from a 27-game absence.

Santos has averaged 17.4 points per game over his last 10 appearances and is averaging 23.4 points per game over his last five home games, a remarkable figure that reflects how aggressively the Warriors have been funneling their offense through him with Curry sidelined. His most recent outing was 25 points on 9-of-14 shooting against the Cavaliers on Thursday, a performance that included a go-ahead three-pointer late before Cleveland ultimately closed it out. Over this extended run without Curry, Santos has operated with starter's minutes, a primary ball-handling role, and the full green light to create off the dribble and attack from multiple levels.

If Curry returns tonight, he will do so on a managed workload in his first game action since January 30. That minutes restriction, combined with his need to shake off rust, means Santos's shot volume is unlikely to drop dramatically in his first game back alongside the All-Star. Santos at 11.5 against the Rockets while averaging 17.4 points over his last 10 appearances and 23.4 at home over his last five is a number that gives away significant value relative to his current production level regardless of Curry's status.

🏀 Max Strus Over 13.5 Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers 

Max Strus has returned from his Jones fracture to immediately become one of the most efficient three-point shooters in the league and the Indiana Pacers represent an ideal matchup to continue what has been a remarkable re-entry to the season.

In eight appearances since returning from his left foot surgery, Strus is averaging 12.5 points per game while shooting at an elite rate from beyond the arc. His two most recent games have been exceptional: 29 points on 8-of-11 from three against the Heat and 24 points on 6-of-10 from three against the Warriors on Thursday, where his two late triples sealed the Cavaliers' playoff-clinching victory. He has connected on six or more three-pointers in two of his last three appearances and has started back-to-back games for Cleveland. The Cavaliers' offensive system creates a consistent stream of open catch-and-shoot opportunities for Strus as defenders collapse on James Harden's pick-and-roll creation, and he has capitalized at a remarkable rate since his return.

Indiana enters this matchup at 18-59 and will be without Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and TJ McConnell, stripping away their primary scoring, perimeter defense, and backcourt depth entirely. On the Cleveland side, while Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Dean Wade, Jaylon Tyson, and Sam Merrill are all out, that concentrated absence actually elevates Strus's usage and shot volume further, placing him among the primary offensive options in tonight's rotation. The injury reports on both sides work in Strus's favor. Indiana cannot guard him and Cleveland needs him to produce. Over 13.5 for a player posting 29 and 24-point performances in back-to-back outings, shooting at an elite clip from deep, against one of the most depleted rosters on the Sunday slate is one of the highest-conviction plays on the board.

Tonight's Best Bets Summary

As always, bet responsibly and within your bankroll. Lines subject to movement, confirm before wagering.

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