What a race we were given at Talladega last week! It was an odd week for yours truly. DFS was very successful for both the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and the Cup Series. That’s a rare accomplishment with superspeedways but we also saw Carson Hocevar get his first career win in the NASCAR Cup Series and he backed it up with a win in the Truck Series Friday night at Texas Motor Speedway!

Perhaps the only thing more impressive than Hocevar’s win was the celebration following the race because in a sport that could use some personalities, Hocevar fits the bill. But we head to Texas Motor Speedway this week. For DFS, it’s a fine track. And there are unique ways to build winning lineups based on how the optimal lineups have played out here. But the quality of racing is rather lackluster, and it can be tough to pass on long green flag runs.

Myself and Ed Raus have all your coverage this weekend with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies for the Würth 400!

 

 

 

Texas Motor Speedway

I’m not shy about my personal feelings toward this track. I have no ill will towards it with regard to DFS. There’s a clear and unique strategy to building winning lineups for Texas. But the racing isn’t the greatest. Unlike tracks like Vegas, Kansas, Homestead, and Darlington that have multiple grooves… You don’t really have that with Texas as there’s really one preferred groove.

Texas Motor Speedway is considered one of those “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. Its closest comparison might be Charlotte Motor Speedway, but it carries some similarities to Vegas and Kansas, where we’ve already seen the Cup Series race this year. They are not direct comparisons, but the intermediate sample size is already quite strong in 2026.

However, while it can be difficult to pass, which makes for boring racing, there is still some variance when you look at previous Texas races and that’s where it can get exciting from a DFS perspective. In the last four Cup Series races at Texas, there have been at least 11 cautions in each. And that tends to keep plenty of cars on the lead lap. So whether it’s pitting for fuel and tires, or staying out for track position, there are at least ways for drivers to move up as the race progresses.

And sure, part of the DFS process will be relying on some luck as we need our drivers to keep their cars clean. So while the racing may not be great, and it’s why several drivers are vocal about their disdain for this track, we will be on the lookout for cautions because that’s when it’ll get interesting.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

Like any other track, playing the polesitter has its perks because of the clear path to dominator points and the win equity. I’d rather lean into the trends table in the previous section over these charts this week. The last five winners have started P27, P24, P18, P4, and P1. And only two drivers in that five-race sample size have led 100+ laps at this track. And there have only been eight total drivers to lead 50+ laps in that span.

There will be plenty of drivers that will lead 20+ laps. But in each of the last five racers at Texas, there have been at least seven drivers to gain double-digit position differential. For that reason, I’m fine playing two dominators at most. I don’t know if I’m going to try and force three into my lineups this weekend.

Each of the last three optimal Texas lineups have followed a similar trend. They featured one driver starting in the top five (who returned 68+ fantasy points on DraftKings) and everyone else started outside the top 15. And only two drivers in those three optimal lineups led 40+ laps. Additionally, all three optimal lineups featured drivers gaining at least 10 spots of PD aside from the outlying drivers that started inside the top five.

So I’ll build some lineups following the mold of the last three races and I’ll try to be unique with two dominators as well. But we should expect the unexpected for this race and assume there will be plenty of cautions to aid our NASCAR DFS lineups.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Würth 400

 

NASCAR Würth 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Tyler Reddick (Starting P8) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

Reddick wasn’t a standout in the short runs in practice, but he appears to be pretty good in the long run. And whether you buy into the subtle narrative online that 23XI Racing is cheating and such, the team shows up every week and he’s backed it up with five wins through 10 races.

Reddick did win at Texas in the 2022 playoffs where he led 70 laps. And over the last three Texas races he’s led a total of 74 laps but also has a pair of finishes outside the top 20. That sort of speaks to the uptick in variance we need to apply to Texas.

But given the performance at Darlington and Kansas over the last few weeks, it’s hard to really count him out especially since he won here in the past. I think we can confidently pay up for Reddick and go right back to the well with this upside play.

Kyle Larson (Starting P11) – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $13,500

With NASCAR returning to another intermediate track, we have to consider Kyle Larson. Sure, it’s been almost a full calendar year since he won a race. But it’s not like he’s been terrible in that span. Even after Hendrick Motorsports got off to a slightly slow start with the new Chevy body, Larson found ways to lead a ton of laps at Vegas, Darlington, Bristol, and Kansas.

And this is a race where you can build lineups with one dominator in mind while you chase PD with the rest of your build. Larson is the kind of driver that is capable of dominating a whole race on his own. We don’t normally see that at a track like Texas and yet Larson’s led 75+ laps in each of the last three races at this track.

The finishes can be tricky and hard to come by. The difficult part with Texas is that we are likely going to see an abundance of cautions. Larson has wrecked in two of the last five races here, and five of the last 12. But that’s not enough to keep me from playing him. There’s a great ceiling if he can run up front and while most of the field hates this track, it’s one Larson can win.

Ryan Blaney (Starting P31) – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,500

The analysis on Blaney is pretty simple: this is purely a position differential play. Normally at intermediate tracks we may want to prioritize dominator points in this price range. However, Blaney’s one of the best drivers in the field and position differential weighs heavily at Texas.

Ross Chastain started P31 in this race a year ago and finished second. Blaney’s teammate, Joey Logano, won this race starting P27. Winners can come from anywhere in this field, and Blaney simply laid down a crap lap in qualifying. The car appears to have top 10 speed in the long run so he should move up. He’s a lock for cash games because you can eat the chalk and if he busts you can still double up without him. In GPP’s you may need to take it easy on how much exposure you get.

William Byron (Starting P15) – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $12,000

I’m going to mostly highlight Byron right here but I also want to acknowledge Chase Elliott who is a very interesting option that had great long run speed. He’s slightly cheaper than Byron on DraftKings and starts one spot ahead of him.

But Byron starts P15 and he topped the charts in short run speed during practice. He ranked second in 15-lap averages and that was it. We didn’t really get a good look at the longer run speed.

Byron is no stranger to being a previous winner at Texas. He won here during the 2023 playoffs and in four of the last seven races at this track, he’s led 30+ laps. So the PD is there and he carries some win equity despite the awful start to the season.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Carson Hocevar (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $10,500

This is an aggressive price tag for Carson Hocevar. He’s fresh off his first Cup Series win at Talladega last weekend and he won the Truck Series race Friday night. He’s coming in with a ton of momentum. But having Hocevar on the pole gives him a great ceiling but also a terrible floor. Hocevar was on the pole for this race a year ago and he finished 24th with 22 laps led and 18 fastest laps. But the negative PD was enough to take him out of contention.

We didn’t get a really good look at the long run speed in practice for Hocevar, but he laid down a great lap in qualifying because he went out later in the run. And obviously the DraftKings and FanDuel scoring charts above look great for the polesitter, but that’s because Kyle Larson racked up 256 laps led and 104 fastest laps at Texas in the 2021 playoffs. Take that race away and the last four polesitters are averaging just 42 fantasy points on DraftKings and 55.2 fantasy points on FanDuel.

Now I don’t want to necessarily scare anyone off this play. If you’d prefer to go to Joey Logano, he probably has a safer floor. But Hocevar will have the early benefit of clean air and he knows his way around this track. He can only be played in GPP’s and maybe at 20% exposure at the absolute most.

Bubba Wallace (Starting P37) – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $9,500

We go from arguably the riskiest play on the slate to what should be the safest play on the board. But we can never assume we’re safe when rostering Bubba Wallace in DFS. But Bubba wrecked in practice and didn’t post a qualifying lap. So he starts in the last row for this race.

Bubba wrecked in this race a year ago but was top five at the end of the second stage. But he finished seventh here in 2024 and he was third in the 2023 playoffs after starting on the pole and leading 111 laps. 

If he runs a clean race, he can work his way into the top 10. But we also know Bubba can fold under pressure. But all he needs is a top 20 finish for 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings. And we know the car is certainly good enough to finish there. A top 15 finish would return 50+ fantasy points. Similar to Blaney he’s a lock for cash games. But you cannot go all in on this play for GPP’s because he’ll be over 50% owned and likely closer to 60% if I was asked to give an honest assessment.

Brad Keselowski (Starting P25) – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

Brad Keselowski’s recent finish average at Texas is dragged down because he wrecked in this race a year ago. But in the eight prior races at Texas, he consistently finished in the top 10 in all of them including a pair of runner-up finishes (Spring 2024 and Summer 2021).

Brad’s looked very strong on the intermediates this year as well. We just saw him start P21 and finish sixth at Kansas. At Darlington he led 142 laps and finished as the runner-up. Even at Vegas he started P28 and finished 10th.

RFK Racing is having a solid year and they’ve looked like the premier Ford team at times. All three drivers have shown they’re capable of finishing in the top 12 and Brad has track history and form on his side entering this weekend.

Ryan Preece (Starting P20) – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,500

Preece is somewhat of a wild card. With so much chalk available to us on the slate, he may fly under the radar as a driver starting in the middle of the field. He doesn’t carry as much position differential as Blaney, Wallace, Keselowski, and plenty of others.

Preece wrecked in last year’s race at Texas but he finished 12th in this race two years ago. The practice speeds weren’t anything noteworthy, but what have we seen all year from his team? They just get better gradually as the race plays out and they make their way through the field. If he can avoid the carnage and the abundance of cautions, there’s top 12 upside at significantly less ownership than a lot of the chalk on this slate.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Daniel Suarez (Starting P2) – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,200

The success of Suarez at Texas is well documented because he does consider this his home track. Over his last four races at Texas with Trackhouse Racing, Suarez finished in the top 12 in each race including three straight top 10 finishes.

But that’s obviously in the past. Suarez is now with Spire Motorsports who got a huge win with Carson Hocevar last week. And Trackhouse Racing has regressed this year aside from the road courses. And Suarez himself is having a fine season as he’s currently in the playoff picture, but we still have a long way to go.

But he has three top 12 finishes in his last five races and now he comes to a track where he’s clearly comfortable. I’m pretty excited to see what he can do with the new team and that heavy investment they received in the offseason.

Now obviously with Suarez starting on the front row, there’s plenty of risk. And he starts right next to his teammate, Carson Hocevar. You don’t even need to play Suarez in single-entry of three-entry contests. This is solely a large-field, multi-entry GPP recommendation. There’s some speculation that the practice speeds look awful because he might have had a tire leaking air, so it’s hard to give much weight to the lap times.

Erik Jones (Starting P21) – DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $6,000

So Austin Dillon is the chalk donkey in this range as he starts dead last after taking his car to the garage to address an engine issue during practice. So that means he didn’t post a qualifying lap and starts dead last. He’s an easy play but Austin Dillon carrying heavy ownership is kind of an eyesore, so tread carefully there.

I’d rather swing for the GPP fences with this one and target a high upside play with a driver who has had success at Texas, so long as he’s able to finish. Jones has wrecked in three of the last eight races at this track. But he finished top five at Texas in the spring of 2025 and the spring of 2022. And he was sixth in the 2022 playoffs at Texas.

The practice speeds don’t stand out, but we also didn’t get a good look at the long run of this car. But you can probably settle on 15-20% exposure to Jones and be slightly overweight compared to the field. He breaks the slate if he can finish in the top eight once again.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Starting P22) – DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $4,800

Stenhouse’s price tag is kind of hilarious because, while this isn’t a superspeedway, I do think he’s worthy of being in the low-to-mid $6K range on DraftKings. Texas really isn’t an awful track for him as he’s been a slate-breaking value play in the past.

Stenhouse started P34 in this race last year and finished sixth for a huge DFS score. He also has top 10 results from 2021 and 2023, with a pair of top 20 finishes in the 2022 season which was the first year of the NextGen car.

And sure, he’s not a lock by any means. Nobody can be considered a safe play when your nickname is “Wrecky.” But he can make some noise and be a strong play if he avoids the cautions at this track, which he’s done in each of the last five Texas races and the only race he’s failed to finish this year was Atlanta.

Ty Dillon (Starting P35) – DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $2,500

The Dillon brothers have strong history at Texas. Austin Dillon’s variance is well noted and he is a previous winner from many moons ago. But we cannot discount Ty Dillon because Ty is probably as deep into the driver pool as I’m willing to go for Sunday’s race.

Dillon’s results aren’t elite but over his last five races at Texas, dating back to the 2022 playoffs, he hasn’t finished worse than 19th. Even last year he started P23 and finished 12th. The year prior he started P36 and finished 16th for 20 spots of positive PD.

It’s not like he’s doing it on pure speed. He’s mostly avoiding the cautions and passing drivers who wreck out or lose laps. But that can play at Texas if we’re due for 10+ cautions because Ty Dillon may run so far back that he’s out of any danger from carnage. And if that happens, he’ll chip away at PD as the race progresses.

If you need a pivot in this “punt” range, don’t rule out Riley Herbst. It’s a small sample size but Herbst has strangely had success at this track. Last year he grabbed a top 15 finish after starting P21. And in five of his last seven races in the former Xfinity Series he finished 12th or better at Texas.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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